ScotGems (SGEM) was launched June of 2017, and aims to deliver long-term capital growth from a portfolio of small cap companies operating in emerging markets. Managed by Stewart Investors, with Ashish Swarup as lead manager, the trust has a highly concentrated portfolio with just 25 holdings. The manager’s investment style is inherently conservative, focusing on the downside risks as well as on the upside potential of any investment. Capital preservation is deemed as important to the manager as capital growth and this means that the trust has an extremely low beta and standard deviation relative to peers. Ideas are generated through the manager’s vast network of connections, and the team anticipate meeting over 1,000 companies over a year. This is a key part of the process, with the manager looking to recognise company ambitions, expectations and the way in which the company is run. Since the inception of the trust two years ago, it has struggled in performance terms. Since launch, the trust has delivered -2.9% NAV total returns. In comparison, the trust’s ‘comparative indices’, the MSCI ACWI, MSCI ACWI Small Cap and MSCI Emerging Markets, have delivered NAV total returns of 19.1%, 7.3% and 7.3% respectively. Much of this is due to the strict valuation and quality criteria the manager has, and the fact that the most expensive companies have been those that have performed the strongest. Alongside this, the company has been deploying cash during this time and even at this stage has 13.1% of the portfolio in cash. Performance has improved year to date, with the trust delivering NAV total returns of 1.3%. Nevertheless, the trust has still struggled relative to peers and the company’s comparative indices. After reaching heights of a 6% premium after launch, the trust has seen considerable discount volatility since then, and shareholders have found the discount widening to a c. 15% discount level. Since then, the discount has narrowed and the trust currently trades at close to 8% below par.
Companies: ScotGems Plc
ScotGems was launched June last year, aiming to deliver long-term capital growth, by investing into smaller capitalisation companies operating in emerging markets all around the world. Managed by Stewart Investors, it has a concentrated portfolio containing companies with a market cap of less than $2.5bn. The manager’s investment style is inherently conservative, focusing on the downside risks as well as on the upside potential of any investment. Capital preservation is deemed as important to the manager as capital growth. For the first six months of life, the trust struggled in relative terms, underperforming the MSCI ACWI benchmark from launch to the end of 2017 by -1.8%. However, 2018 has brought some welcome respite, with ScotGems outperforming the benchmark by 4.3%, delivering NAV returns of 2.5% to the end of April. After reaching the heights of a 6% premium after launch, the trust has seen considerable discount volatility since then, and shareholders have found the discount widening to a c.10% discount level, before narrowing, although the shares now trade at a discount of 7.8% at the time of writing.
2017 was by all measures a very good year for investors. With an equity market in full cry, we saw the FTSE 100 reach all-time highs on the final trading day of the year, and the S&P 500 achieve its first ever ‘perfect’ calendar year with positive returns every month. Meanwhile, volatility was low, particularly in the US, and the VIX Index ‘fear gauge’ continued to reflect a singular calmness among investors.
Companies: AUGM SGEM USA MATE
ScotGems (SGEM) has commenced dealing on the London Stock Exchange today, having raised £50.3m via an initial placing and offer for subscription. A new global smaller companies investment trust, managed by Ashish Swarup and Tom Allen at Stewart Investors, SGEM will seek capital growth from a concentrated portfolio of 20-30 stocks with market capitalisations below $2.5bn, initially at least with a bias towards Asia-Pacific and emerging markets. Stewart Investors focuses on stewardship and seeks to invest in small-cap companies with strong franchises and balance sheets. The investment manager is known for closely managing capacity in its investment strategies, with many of its popular funds closed to new investment. A placing programme will allow SGEM to issue up to a further 49.7m shares at a premium to NAV, giving maximum total assets of c £100m at the IPO price.
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Cenkos’s first half results demonstrated the benefits of its flexible operating model and strength of its client relationships. While challenges related to COVID-19 are set to continue, Cenkos’s focus is on growth companies and its fund-raising year-to-date has had a greater emphasis on corporates financing M&A and growth opportunities rather than for defensive purposes. This should prove more sustainable although, as always, the timing of transactions in the encouraging pipeline reported remains uncertain.
Companies: Cenkos Securities plc
Avation is a lessor of 46 commercial aircraft to a diversified airline client base. This morning, the group has released results for the 12-months to 30 June 2020, which illustrate the challenges faced by its customer base as a result of Covid-19, as well as the corrective actions taken by the Board that have resulted in profitability being maintained in the year as a whole. Loan repayment deferrals of c.$24.4m were obtained in the period, in comparison to $13.1m short-term rent deferrals being granted to airline customers and thus emphasising management's focus on liquidity during an unprecedented period for global airlines. Avation again reports that it is currently reviewing alternatives in relation to the 6.5% senior notes due in May 2021. Whilst at this point our forecasts remain under review, and near term challenges remain across the industry, we believe that demand for aircraft from lessors such as Avation will increase in time as a result of airlines being even more reliant upon aircraft leasing firms due to the retirement of older aircraft during 2020 in combination with much weaker balance sheets that are unable to support direct aircraft purchases.
Companies: Avation PLC
Record’s Q221 trading update confirmed that its new $8bn dynamic hedging mandate has started and that, prior to this, assets under management equivalent (AUME) expanded by 4% in the quarter. The group continues to work on developing new products and is deploying technology to enhance its ability to deliver these and existing products cost effectively.
Companies: Record plc
Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that holds a portfolio of 510 primary health facilities in the UK (92% of the portfolio by value) and Ireland (8%). The business model is to manage the properties for rental income and to grow the portfolio over time. The
Companies: PHP PP51 PHPRF
Cenkos Securities plc has terminated coverage of Record Plc. Our previous recommendation (BUY) and forecasts can no longer be relied upon. Please contact Cenkos for further information.
What’s new: Today’s trading update reveals 17% rise in assets under management (AuM), double digit revenue growth, and an increasing operating margin as the business scales. The outlook is positive. Highlights are: 12.6% rise in 1H Group Revenues to £11.0m (1H last year: £9.7m); 21.9% rise in 1H adj operating profit to £5.0m (1H last year: £4.1m); 17.4% rise over 6 months in AUM to £7.8bn on 30 September 2020, n.b. From 31 March 2020 the WMA balanced index rose 11.6% to 4510; - Market movements added 12.5% to AUM (i.e. Tatton outperformed WMA); - 1H net inflows of £328.1bn were 4.9% of opening AUM (i.e. c 10% annualised net inflows); 3.0% rise in Paradigm Mortgage Services member firms to 1,591 2.5% rise in Paradigm Consulting member firms Interims will be announced on Wednesday, 18 November 2020
Companies: Tatton Asset Management Plc
Following on quickly from its impressive full year results, these interim results confirm that our confidence for growth in the Program Management business was not misplaced.Contracted Premium increased 95% YoY (and 12% ahead of December 2019) to $925m –a stone's throw away from the $1bn 2020 guidance set in 2018. At the same time, Gross Written Premium (GWP) grew 42.6% to £247.2m, resulting in Economic EBITDA turning positive, at £0.8m compared to a loss of £0.3m in 1H19
Companies: Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings Ltd.
As expected following the US banks’ releases, Barclays’ third quarter results saw a sharp reduction in provisions build-up while the emergence of delinquencies has been delayed by the State’s supporting measures. Management continues to expect a reduction in the cost of risk next year. It remains to be seen if this guidance is capable of withstanding new lockdowns or a no-deal Brexit.
Companies: Barclays PLC
Tatton has reported an in-line H1 financial performance: revenue totalled £11.0m (vs N+1Se £10.9m) and £5.0m adj. EBIT (50% N+1S FY21e). AuM grew by 3.4% to £7.8bn as net inflows continued throughout H1 (+£328m) – a positive performance given the backdrop. Paradigm, particularly in Mortgages, has been resilient post-lockdown. Having delivered 50% of our earnings forecast for FY21e, there is potential for upside. However, we leave our forecasts unchanged and a margin for safety as we remain alive to potential external risks/volatility.
The most pleasing aspect of Tatton’s trading update for the six months ending 30 Sep 2020 (H1 2021) was how robust its fundamental offering to clients (financial advisers) has proven to be in highly uncertain market conditions. It continued to attract strong net inflows into its asset management business while also growing its base of IFA consulting and mortgage services clients. The prospect of beating our previous FY21 forecasts looks promising. Longerterm growth prospects also look strong. We do, however, remain wary of the potential impact of further large market dips. For now, we maintain our fundamental valuation of 300p per share but see room for significant upside on that mark if Tatton continues to deliver.
ANGLE plc (AGL.L): Acceptance of FDA submission | Feedback plc (FDBK.L*): Partnership agreement | Open Orphan (ORPH.L): Human Challenge Study Model contract with UK Government
Companies: AGL FDBK ORPH
The interims confirmed that Covid-19 was minimally disruptive operationally in H1 20 and, ironically, may have improved both of R&Q’s divisions’ mediumterm trading outlooks. As the pandemic and other industry events have generated significant losses for insurers, they have created the current ‘hardening’ market driving demand for Legacy and Program Management.
John Laing Group (JLG) has announced the sale of its Australian wind farm assets for A$285m (£157m), a valuation described as a ‘small uplift’ to book value. This news is significant for two reasons: 1) it provides some reassurance that the book value of JLG’s renewable assets is now relatively conservative; and 2) accounting for about a third of its renewable portfolio, the disposal represents material progress on JLG’s strategy to exit this market. We make no change to our numbers ahead of the company’s Q3 trading statement expected next week.
Companies: John Laing Group Plc
NextEnergy Solar Fund has low operating costs, low finance costs and has consistently delivered generation outperformance. We estimate that it can sustain its current level of dividend with an electricity price well below today’s price. The shares show the lowest NAV premium of all the UK renewable yieldcos and the highest yield.
Companies: Nextenergy Solar Fund
Whilst there are some bright spots, such as payments companies, which are beneficiaries of the shift to online shopping, fears about the potential impact of COVID-19 have hit valuations across much of the financial sector. The fall in Polar Capital Global Financials Trust’s (PCFT’s) NAV reflects this situation.
Companies: Polar Capital Global Fincls Trust
