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24 May 2023
Mitchells & Butlers PLC : Strong LFL in H1 drive estimates upgrade - Hold
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Mitchells & Butlers PLC : Strong LFL in H1 drive estimates upgrade - Hold
Mitchells & Butlers plc (MAB:LON) | 263 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 1,578m
- Published:
24 May 2023 -
Author:
Roberta Ciaccia | Darren Milne -
Pages:
7 -
H1 numbers showing stronger than expected LFL. In H1 of the year ending September 2023 (six months ended on April 8), MAB reported a 10.6% increase yoy in revenues, to £1,282m, driven by 8.5% LFL sales in the period. Those LFL were both ahead of consensus expectations and ahead of main peers (i.e., the Coffer Peach Business Tracker), and, crucially, a good mix of price and volume increases. The strength in trading has continued in the first weeks of H2, with an 8.9% increase yoy in LFL sales.
Cost inflation expected to abate in H2. With cost inflation headwinds in food and supply chain likely to decrease in coming months, and energy prices well below their peaks at the end of 2022, the Company is now guiding to its cost base going up in FY23 “at the lower end of the 10%-12% range” that it had previously targeted. Also, management indicated that H1 results and trading momentum “provide confidence that we are tracking ahead of…previous expectations in both the short and the medium term”.
We have materially upgraded our earnings (and PT): Based on H1 results, we have upgraded our sales/EBIT/EPS by 3%/11%24% in FY23E, 3%/9/16% in FY24E and 2%/3%/5% in FY25E. Also, our DCF-based target price now increases to 215p (vs 140p previously). With the share price having already increased by c35% in 3 months, and in line with our (revised) PT, we maintain our neutral rating. While we usually prefer pub companies managing a single brand with a consistent offer, we acknowledge that the width and depth of MAB’s brands, which cater to a wide range of customers, has proven a competitive advantage in delivering industry-beating LFL numbers. Should MAB’s LFL come in at 8% yoy in FY23 (vs our currently estimated 6.5%), we would see a 9%/19% increase in our FY23E EBIT and EPS, respectively.