Morning Note – 24 January 2024

Morning Note – 5 January 2024

Morning Note – 17 October 2023

Revolution Bars Group - FY23 results as expected

Revolution’s FY23 results are largely as expected, with revenue lower than forecast but adj. EBITDA (IAS17) and net debt slightly better. Trading in Peach Pubs has remained strong, with LFL sales up 14.1% in FY23 since acquisition, whilst the Revolution brand has been the most heavily affected by train strikes and cost-of-living pressures on its customers. One year on from the acquisition, Revolution has made its first addition to the Peach portfolio, and recent trading reaffirms our view that t

Morning Note – 26 July 2023

Revolution Bars Group - The present is in line, the future is peachy

Revolution Bars’ FY23 pre-close trading update is an endorsement of the Peach acquisition, which completed in October 2022. Overall group L4L sales were -8.7% versus pre-COVID FY19, but Peach L4L sales were +14% and have progressively strengthened since acquisition. FY23 EBITDA (Adj. IAS17) of £6.6m is £0.1m ahead of our forecast. Encouragingly, early Christmas bookings are running +25% ahead of last year. We leave our forecasts unchanged and retain our 15p target price, implying 156% upside.

Morning Note – 7 March 2023

Shopping Trolley - finnCap Consumer quarterly sector note

Better than expected to date: The January trading update season has been better than expected, with the ratio of upgrades to downgrades running at 26:16 out of the 101 trading updates that we have analysed. It’s a surprisingly positive start to the New Year which reflects (1) realistic expectations captured in consensus forecasts, (2) consumers’ determination to enjoy Christmas and protect important areas of personal expenditure and (3) a reduction in supply as competitors exit.

Morning Note – 17 January 2023

Morning Note – 9 November 2022

Revolution Bars Group - Peach – the apple of Revolution’s eye

There are two questions to ask when a company makes an acquisition: what’s the strategic rationale? And is the price sensible? Revolution’s (RBG) acquisition of Peach Pubs for £16.5m plus costs ticks both boxes. Peach Pubs gives it a third complementary division to grow, it diversifies and reduces risk, and it plays to the strengths of RBG’s management. RBG is funding the deal from existing resources without recourse to new equity. We expect Peach Pubs to exceed Revolution’s WACC by FY25. We rei

Shopping Trolley - finnCap Consumer quarterly sector note

Fulham Shore’s Franco Manca value-for-money brand is perfect for current market conditions in our view, despite pizza being a crowded segment. Pizza travels well, allowing the business to flex to delivery and take-out according to market conditions. The combination of high gross margins, net cash on the balance sheet and excellent FCF generation should allow it to cope with tougher market conditions AND still protect its expansion capex plans to increase EBITDA by +55% over the next three years.

Morning Note – 19 October 2022

Revolution Bars Group - Peach Pubs acquisition and FY22 results

There are two questions to ask when a company makes an acquisition: what’s the strategy? And what’s the price? Revolution’s acquisition of Peach Pubs for £16.5m, announced yesterday, ticks both boxes. Peach Pubs gives it a third complementary division to grow, it diversifies and reduces risk, and it plays to the strengths of RBG’s management. RBG is funding the deal from existing resources without recourse to new equity. It has also announced FY22 results in line with market expectations. We lea

Well positioned for future success

Strong performance against tough market conditions

LIBERUM: The Liberum Leisure Digest: NLW increase - pricing power is key

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

Pinewood Technologies (PINE LN) - Driving growth in automotive software

Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate

Domino's Pizza - Growing the base

Domino’s Pizza Group’s (DOM’s) new CEO has set an ambitious long-term growth target, including an acceleration in its net store opening programme. With better alignment between the company and its franchisees, management believes DOM should be capable of generating improved profit growth, versus that achieved in recent years, and potential higher returns.

Marks & Spencer+ (MKS, House Stock at 255p) - 7Y FS HSBC UK tie-up– another brick in the wall

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

PROGRESSIVE: Vertu Motors: Traction control

Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs

Dunelm Group - Appealing offer

Dunelm Group’s (DNLM’s) H124 results demonstrated the benefits of its strategy of broadening its addressable market by strengthening the core offer and expanding into newer categories, while also growing the store base and marketing more effectively. This is driving growth in the active customer base, who shop with greater frequency, leading to further market share gains in a static market. The broadening appeal of its products is demonstrated by growth being broad-based by geography, customer a

LIBERUM: Safestay: First management contract opens up new revenue stream

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 17 April 24

17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

React Inititation of Coverage

React Group is a well-managed, growing UK services business with a high degree of recurring revenues (c87%).

Hardman & Co Healthcare Index: 2023 – Capital demands dent performance

The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (

ME Group - Modernising and growing the estate driving growth

During 2023, ME Group commenced the deployment of its next generation photobooths, which are integrated with the group’s newly developed proprietary software, gained market leadership in the Japanese photobooth market with an acquisition, continued to roll out laundry units with existing and new location partners, commenced a share buyback programme and gained entry into the FTSE 250. 2023 was a year of significant strategic and financial progress, with sales up 15%, EPS up 31% and net cash main