Genus (GNS LN), the developer and marketer of animal breeding and genetic products for the porcine and bovine industries, has announced a trading update for the period 1 July to 14 November 2018, ahead of its AGM later today.
We have updated forecasts following Genus’ FY results on 6th September, assuming a more conservative short-term stance on Genus PIC (incl. China JV performance), with continued expected headwinds from the ASF outbreak in China, trade disputes and Latin America FX. We note that the share price has fallen by 12% since our downgrade to Hold on 22nd August, ahead of FY results. Although we expect improving returns over the medium term, we reiterate our Hold recommendation with a reduced target price of 2,371p (from 2,469p, -4.0%).
A G Barr (BAG LN) | Directa Plus (DCTA LN) | Genus (GNS LN) | RhythmOne (RTHM LN) | Sigma Capital Group (SGM LN) | Speedy Hire (SDY LN) | Swallowfield (SWL LN) | WYG (WYG LN)
Companies: BAG DCTA GNS RTHM SGM SDY BAR WYG
Genus (GNS LN), the developer and marketer of animal breeding and genetic products for the porcine and bovine industries, has announced its full year results for the period ended 30 June 2018 (FY 2018).
Genus (GNS LN) Downgrade to Hold on valuation grounds | PROACTIS Holdings (PHD LN) More detail on FY18, forecasts updated for outturn and acquisition
Companies: Genus Proactis
Advanced Medical Solutions (AMS LN) In line prelims, FX will drag on top line | Burford Capital (BUR LN) Very strong results, Buy recommendation reinstated | EKF Diagnostics (EKF LN) Strong results, ready for next leg of growth | EMIS Group (EMIS LN) In line update, needs plan for growth | Futura Medical (FUM LN) FY2017 results broadly in line, continued MED2002 progress | Genus (GNS LN) Forecast update post H1 2018 results | Research Highlights Some of our value add over the last 12 months | StatPro Group (SOG LN) Encouraging underlying growth in Revolution ARR | Summit Therapeutics (SUMM LN) Novel antibiotics with the potential to target gonorrhoea identified
Companies: AMS BUR EKF EMIS FUM GNS SOG SUMM
Genus (GNS LN), the developer and marketer of animal breeding and genetic products for the porcine and bovine industries, has announced its interim results for the period ended 31 December 2017 (H1 2018).
Avingtrans (AVG LN) Good progress on integration; FY19 PBT raised 13% | Devro (DVO LN) Upgrading to Buy on valuation and recovery grounds | Genus (GNS LN) H1’s in line with expectations: solid ABS performance | Vernalis (VER LN) Tuzistra® XR scrips below guidance: evaluating strategic options
Companies: AVG DVO GNS VER
Today’s AGM trading update highlights trading in line with expectations for the financial year to date, against a backdrop of generally favourable pricing. We upgraded our forecasts on 30th October, mainly in anticipation of improved trading in Genus ABS. We reiterate our Buy recommendation.
We have updated forecasts, mainly to reflect improved trading conditions in the Dairy market (illustrated by a stronger than expected Genus ABS performance in H2 2017) and expected R&D expenditure on the Genus PIC gene editing programme. The net result is an upgrade to FY2018-19 adj PBT of 3.9% and 5.6% respectively. Although data is limited on the PRRSv gene editing programme, it has captured the market’s imagination since the results release in September and propelled the share price above our previous target price. We upgrade our target price from 1,844p to 2,485p and upgrade our recommendation from Hold to Buy.
FY results are solid and slightly ahead of our forecasts, helped by a £7m positive FX impact on profit. Trading in Genus ABS improved as expected in H2, supported in particular by a stronger performance in Europe and LatAm, whilst the strong trading in Genus PIC continued through H2, with strong royalty growth in Asia in particular China. The proposed 10% dividend increase for the FY is in line with our expectations.
Genus (GNS LN) | Zambeef (ZAM LN)
Companies: Genus Zambeef Products
In our second edition of “Trend spotting” we note how in the last three weeks the defensive rotation trend has gathered pace and further evidence has emerged of the “relative fading” in the UK economy. However we now see early signs of the “risk on” trend starting to reassert itself in equity markets and we look at small cap laggards plus European exposure as ways to play this.
Companies: GNS NTG SPH TRI XAR BOY VCT GHH CHH DPH INS HILS RPS LWB EKF UDG SYNT MYSL IMO BCA JUP KMK
Animal Health is a vast market with multiple long-term growth characteristics and opportunities. In this report we have outlined valuations, M&A activity and the key growth drivers in two animal health subsectors: companion animal health and livestock health. Although the commercial positioning of the eight companies covered in this report (Animalcare, Anpario, Benchmark Holdings, CVS Group, Dechra, ECO Animal Health, Genus and Pets at Home) differ significantly, all have exposure to positive market trends.
Companies: GNS ANCR CVSG DPH BMK EAH ANP PETS
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A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
Laboratory Services Contracts Signed
Companies: Open Orphan
The announcement announced today highlights the potential breadth of the KidneyIntelX platform, opening up new routes to expand data inputs and test utility, and create opportunities alongside pharmacological therapy as a companion diagnostic. The first agreement with the University of Michigan adds an additional 800 chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients (adding to Mount Sinai’s 1,500 patients and the University of Groningen’s 3,500 patients) to analysis the performance of KidneyIntelX in different settings. This will ultimately carry additional sway with healthcare centres, regulators, and payers. The option to exclusively license a new urinary biomarker, urinary Epithelial Growth Factor (uEGF), shows the potential to add additional biomarkers and body fluids into the platform to further enhance the prognostic performance of KidneyIntelX. We understand there is a relatively immaterial upfront payment to access this new biobank, and a similar immaterial cash payment to gain the biomarker license option with additional milestones and standard tiered royalties payable if exercised. The second data sharing agreement with a major undisclosed pharma partner highlights KidneyIntelX’s potential use as a companion diagnostic (e.g. for SGLT2 inhibitors) and the potential to use the test multiple times to monitor drug response. This builds on work being conducted in Groningen with data expected H2 CY’20. Ultimately, pharmaceutical collaborations could drive additional long-term value creation and may open opportunities for lucrative licensing and M&A deals. At this juncture we make no changes to our forecasts and eagerly await further updates. We reiterate our positive stance on Renalytix.
Companies: Renalytix AI
Today Ergomed held its annual general meeting (AGM). As expected, no new financial details were provided, although the executive chairman released a statement with a general business update. Q120 trading was good with ‘solid overall growth in revenue’ and cash generation ‘remained strong’. In Q220, Ergomed continued to grow the order book across the business and maintained its ‘revenue growth trend’. Its staff successfully adapted to remote working conditions and no employees were made redundant or furloughed. The H120 trading update will be released in July 2020 as usual, but Ergomed stated within its AGM update (June 10) that it is confident the results will be ‘in line with current market expectations’.
Renalytix’s US IPO filing document went live overnight (having previously been filed confidentially). Whilst there are no details on size of offering, but the document is rich with details of the use of proceeds which we encourage UK investors to read. We are doing the same and will update our views in due course. Associated with the US filing document, another release this morning announces the publication of a circular, and outlines details for a new General Meeting on the 13 July 2020 to approve the issue of new shares, as well as board changes if the US IPO goes ahead. Namely, Julian Baines (Non-executive Chair) and Richard Evans (NED and Audit committee Chair) are stepping down from the board, Christopher Mills will assume the role of interim chair whilst a search for a successor is conducted.
Cambridge Cognition ("COG") has provided a trading update for the 6 months to 30 June and presented its growth strategy at an excellent Capital Markets Day. The Group continues to build on an impressive H1 2020, announcing additional contract wins that take the order intake to £4.9m (+88% vs H1 2019). COG is currently 'seeing unprecedented demand' for its solutions which enable pharmaceutical companies to continue clinical trials even while participants are unable to physically visit clinical trial sites.
Companies: Cambridge Cognition
With CHF13bn ($14bn) annual sales, Roche is a dominant force in the global diagnostics market. Interestingly, in recent years, most diagnostics majors have witnessed material re-ratings – also a function of increased M&A euphoria. Now, in the backdrop of COVID-19, Roche has also emerged as a prominent player on the testing front. With big pharmas moving away from (low-growth) non-pharma offerings, is it time for Roche to consider unlocking value from Diagnostics?
Companies: Roche Holding
AVO’s goal is to deliver an affordable and novel proton therapy (PT) system, called LIGHT, based on state-of-the-art technology developed originally at the worldrenowned CERN. Over the past two years, the project has been significantly derisked through important technical milestones. AVO is working on the verification and validation phase, prior to LIGHT being used on the first patients to support CE certification. A recent equity issue, new loan facilities and some commercial announcements earlier in 2020 highlight the increasing confidence that is building in AVO’s ability to achieve its goal to deliver LIGHT in the near future.
Companies: Advanced Oncotherapy
ReNeuron has released further follow-up data from the ongoing human retinal progenitor cell (hRPC) trial, which shows a robust sustained averaged response. This data set completes the six-month data on eight patients and extends, for one individual, to 18 months, who showed a good net gain. The next dose level, two million cells in nine patients, remains delayed due to COVID-19. A filing to start a pivotal study is expected in the second half of CY21. Our indicative value remains at £107m.
Companies: Reneuron Group
Hutchison China MediTech (HCM) is on the brink of global launches of two assets from its internally developed oncology portfolio. In 2022 we expect US launches of surufatinib (broad NET indication) two years earlier than forecast as well as savolitinib (NSCLC). Recently the FDA granted fast-track designation to fruquintinib in mCRC and we forecast global launch in 2023. In China, HCM has laid the foundations to capitalise on the slew of additional novel oncology drugs (expected by end 2021). HCM is well funded (following the recent $100m equity investment from General Atlantic, plus warrants granted for an additional $100m in 18 months) as it accelerates the global development of its unpartnered assets and expands its global commercial outreach. Beyond 2024 we expect sustainable profitability and margin expansion. Our increased valuation is $6.3bn.
Companies: Hutchison China Meditech
We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.
Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH STU FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SDL SPR TRI
Hutchison China MediTech (HCM) is on the brink of global launches of two assets from its internally developed oncology portfolio. In 2022 we expect US launches of surufatinib (broad NET indication) two years earlier than forecast as well as savolitinib (NSCLC). Recently the FDA granted fast-track designation to fruquintinib in mCRC and we forecast global launch in 2023. In China, HCM has laid the foundations to capitalize on the slew of additional novel oncology drugs (expected by end 2021). HCM is well funded (following the recent $100m equity investment from General Atlantic, plus warrants granted for an additional $100m in 18 months) as it accelerates the global development of its unpartnered assets and expands its global commercial outreach. Beyond 2024 we expect sustainable profitability and margin expansion. Our increased valuation is $6.3bn.
Collagen Solutions (COS.L): Supply agreement with NovaBone
Companies: Collagen Solutions
Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.
Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM
We are initiating coverage on specialist pharmaceutical services provider Ergomed. We believe it should prove relatively resilient during the COVID-19 crisis and has the fundamentals in place to execute its growth strategy. Ergomed announced impressive audited numbers for FY19, with revenue up 26% to £68.3m and EBITDA up 5.5x to £12.5m. The FY19 announcement is effectively Ergomed’s fourth profit upgrade for FY19 and a small beat on recently reset FY19 expectations. Ergomed trades at a discounted EV/EBITDA of 10.1x vs the contract research outsourcing (CRO) sector average of 11.5x (FY20). We value Ergomed at £186m or 399p/share. Ergomed’s strong organic growth is benefiting from a clear strategic focus on high growth pharma sectors, margin control and order book growth (up 15% to £125m in FY19, giving 90% visibility to 2020).