2019 has been a transformational year for ReNeuron, marked by impressive initial data from the human retinal progenitor cells (hRPC) programme in retinitis pigmentosa (RP) and the initiation of a China partnership with Fosun Pharma (milestone payments of up to £80m and double-digit royalties). In the RP programme, positive data were presented at the AAO annual meeting in San Francisco on eight patients, which further reinforces the data presented earlier in the year. However, long-term durability of effect remains a key question. Further data are expected in H120. In ReNeuron’s CTX PISCES III trial in stroke disability patients, the company recently updated its trial design to improve the speed of patient recruitment. Data are expected in mid-2021. We value ReNeuron at £197m.
The data set for hRPC in RP continues to mature. Due to differences in patient enrolment dates, follow-up times varied; however, all eight patients had reached at least three months of follow-up at the time of the recent data update (data presented at the American Academy of Ophthalmology (AAO) Annual Meeting in San Francisco). The eight patients at three months presented a mean ETDRS letters read change of 6.1 (vs 6.8 in untreated eye), however, the data were negatively confounded by two patients who had surgery related adverse events leading to vision loss. Removing these two patients, the remaining six patients demonstrated a mean ETDRS improvement of 17.8 (vs 8.3 in untreated eye) at three months.
ReNeuron has reported results for the six-month period ending 30 September. Revenue increased substantially year-on-year to £6.1m (vs £0.03m in the sixmonth period ending 30 September 2018) as a result of the Fosun Pharma upfront. R&D costs rose 22% to £9.2m (vs £7.5m) as a result of the progression of the clinical hRPC and CTX programmes, while admin costs remained flat at £2.6m. Tax income fell to £1.2m (vs £1.5m). ReNeuron recorded an improved net loss for the period of £3.9m (vs a £5.4m loss in six-month period ending 30 September 2018). Cash and equivalents of £21.3m should enable a cash reach into 2021.
We value ReNeuron at £197m or 624p per share, versus £198m or 625p per share previously. We have rolled forwards our model, and updated for FX and cash. Additionally, we have increased the probability of success of hRPC in RP to 25% (vs 20% previously) and pushed back CTX launch to 2024 (vs 2023 previously).