Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

Asos sees another year of contracting sales

Asos ended its financial year (3 September 2023) with a lower-than-expected operating loss. The group expects sales in FY24 to continue to fall by 5%-15%. The new leadership will continue to focus on a recovery in profitability while sacrificing top-line growth. The group expects to return to positive growth by FY25. The updated outlook for FY24 onwards and the lack of meaningful progress on profitability to date remain a concern going forward.

Wet summer slowed the pace of recovery

Asos published weaker-than-expected year-end trading. The wet weather in July and August across many of the group’s markets, most notably the UK, has resulted in weaker sales and impacted the year-end cash flow. However, the group’s inventory level reduced 30% yoy and order profitability has improved by over 35%; both give the new financial year a favourable start. We are still waiting for more evidence on profit improvement.

Back to profitability

Asos has returned to profitability in P3 23 (3 months to end May), despite the top-line decline of 14% thanks to deliberate actions on capital allocation to improve profitability. The improved profitability has enabled the group to maintain H2 23 and FY23 guidance unchanged.

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 15 May 2023

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 10 May 2023

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 10 Feb 23

10 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec

Confident of delivering a significant improvement from H2 23

Asos reported a revenue contraction of 6% for the period from September to December 2022, impacted by the challenging trading environment (cost of living crisis and elevated return rate) and the strategic restructuring of the business. The group continues to expect an H1 23 loss owing to the challenging consumer environment. However, Asos is confident of achieving a significant improvement in profitability from H2 23, which will result in free cash flow generation of -£100m-£0m for FY23.

Fight to survive in the weakening consumer environment

Asos published its FY22 (ended August 2022) figures, impacted by the weaker consumer environment. The ongoing supply chain disruption and skyrocketing cost of living will continue to weigh on the group’s performance into the new FY23. The group announced a series of cost-cutting and business reorganisation measures, and increased financial flexibility through the renegotiation of core banking covenants to navigate the challenges of the year ahead.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 19/10/22

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Ithaca Energy, a UK independent exploration and production company focused on the UK North Sea, intends to join the Premium Segment of the Main Market. Ithaca Energy is one of the largest independent oil and gas companies in the UKCS, ranking 2nd by resources and 3rd by production. During the six months ended 30 June 2022, Ithaca Energy's average daily production (oil and gas) on a net work

Guidance cut on a continuing higher return rate

Asos has cut its FY22 guidance as shoppers return more clothes amid inflationary pressure. The group also continues to work actively against the ongoing global supply chain challenges. The FY22 top-line is expected to grow between 4%-7% vs .10%-15% previously Adj. PBT will be in a range of £20m-£60m vs. £110m-£140m.

Guidance maintained despite the inflationary pressure

The cost inflation and higher discounted activity along with the industry-wide supply challenges since last winter have negatively affected Asos’ profitability during the first half. Although the stock position for H2 has significantly enhanced, the group warned that the higher risk from inflationary pressure and the suspension of activity in Russia may weigh on the FY22 performance. So far, the group has maintained its FY22 guidance.

Tracsis - Interims: FY order book visibility and a doubled pipeline

Interims to January are in line with the February TU, and materially unchanged forecasts for the FY July 2024. After the well flagged expected 1H24 revenue movement of -7% (vs 1H23 which had been strengthened by c£2m perpetual licence sales in the US), prospects for the second half are supported by several new contracts that will generate revenue in 2H24, in addition to material contract delivery milestones from existing large projects such as major TRACS Enterprise, Railhub deployments, and Rem

Eleco - FY23 recurring revenue growth of +22%, EBITDA +2% ahead

Eleco’s FY23 results show robust organic recurring revenue growth of +17% with recurring revenue +22% to £20.7m, adj EBITDA +2% ahead of the January update, and a confident outlook with Q1 ARR already at £24.5m vs £22.6m at FY23. At this point, the excellent start to FY24 leads us to reiterate our FY24-26E revenue, adj EBITDA, EFCF, and DPS, and we include the April 2024 acquisition of Vertical Digital in our FY24-26E net cash, as we explain below. As Eleco builds upon the successful acquisition

An excellent win, momentum rebuilding

Made Tech has won a material expansion (worth up to £19.5m/2yrs) with a long-standing customer, The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (“DLUHC”). Coming off the back of a soft H1 bookings performance, we expect this win to materially boost investor sentiment and reassure how notwithstanding a tough backdrop (given an impending general election) MTEC continues to outcompete legacy providers and in-so-doing, grow its share of wallet with large/strategic customers. Landing near FY

Morning Note – 24 April 2024

LIBERUM: 1Spatial: Walk the talk and get SaaSy

Alphawave Semi - FY23 results, 1Q24 trading update

Following the updated guidance published last week, Alphawave reported a 74% YoY increase in revenue to US$321.7m for FY23 generating adjusted EBITDA of US$62.6m, up 34% YoY. As previewed, bookings in 1Q24 were strong at US$117.9m, up 20% YoY and ahead of guidance. The results release and conference call confirm that revised guidance mainly reflects a more conservative approach to revenue recognition under new CFO, Rahul Mathur, and an acceleration in the pace at which Alphawave is pivoting away

tinyBuild (TBLD LN) - Focused on H2 recovery

tinyBuild’s FY23 results confirmed a sharp drop in revenue and swing into adjusted EBITDA losses, as well as asset impairments and high cash burn. After already making $10m of annualised cost savings, the company continues to run-down its cash balance and now relies on a H2-weighted release schedule to reduce cash outflows.

LIBERUM: Cerillion: Continued strong trading in 1H

Morning Note – 23 April 2024

Pennant International - FY23 update and appointment

We view confirmation of market forecasts / PEN's February update as providing further validation for the company's strategy. Ongoing business streams (including the concluding stage of the Boeing / Apache contract) provide underpinning for forecasts for the current year and software-derived earnings as strategized look set to rise in FY24 with the launch of the company's GenS technology (well-regarded and long-established OmegaPS series update). Tuesday's statement from the Prime Minister ple

To infinity…

Cerillion has announced a very solid update, as H1 sales and EBITDA are both up 10% y/y to £22.5m and £10.9m respectively, notwithstanding the exceptionally strong base period (sales and EBITDA +27% and +38% resp.). Results therefore point to continued strong customer demand, reflecting how Cerillion’s out-of-the-box product continues to resonate and gain adoption, particularly in a ‘budget conscious’ environment, by offering faster time to market, greater configurability and at a lower cost. Me

Synectics + (SNX, House Stock at 188p) - Positive AGM statement

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 April 24

24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

In-line H1, strategic initiatives advancing at pace

As reported in March, underlying EBITDA profitability improved to record levels despite FX headwinds. Further platform and proposition developments were completed, key steps on its digital roadmap, and it has already won 7 contracts YTD. Alongside planned growth in private membership, this will at least offset the loss of one contract. Forecasts are left unchanged today and, as member engagement throttles back up, FX headwinds ease, and proof points of digital efficiency emerge, markets should b

Checkit - Signposting the path to profitability

In a tough trading environment, Checkit managed to grow FY24 revenue by 17% and reduce EBITDA losses by nearly half. The company has had a positive start to FY25 with new contract wins and the launch of a new module. Focus on growth from its existing customer base combined with strict cost control is helping Checkit to make steady progress towards its target of positive EBITDA and cash generation in FY27.