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  • 26 Mar 24
PROGRESSIVE: Forterra: Biggest customers poised to bounce back most

Forterra’s FY23 (to 31 December) earnings were slightly higher than guidance, which was raised in January, with resilient pricing partly offsetting a steep fall in demand among its main end users, large housebuilders. Our estimates are broadly unchanged, other than reflecting a more conservative stance on the final dividend. Despite a cautious tone in the outlook statement, we believe the largest housebuilders may now rebound more strongly than smaller peers.

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research
  • 24 Jan 24
PROGRESSIVE: Forterra: Profit guidance raised despite sharp sales fall

Forterra’s FY23E trading update for the 12 months to 31 December guides to adjusted EBITDA ‘slightly ahead’ of its expectations despite brick volumes falling by over a third during the year. We have raised our adjusted PBT and EPS estimates for FY23E and introduced forecasts for FY24E taking our cue from the cautious tone in the outlook statement, which cites uncertainties ahead of a general election. However, we suggest Forterra’s large housebuilding customers could outperform this view.

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research
  • 11 Oct 23
PROGRESSIVE: Forterra: Housebuilding slowdown dampens demand

Forterra has indicated that recent industry-wide data showing declines in brick deliveries as a result of lower housebuilding volumes is likely to impact its expected FY23 volumes, leading the group to moderate current year guidance for revenue and PBT. Forterra has responded by outlining further steps to align production with demand, but notes that heightened political focus on increasing housing supply reinforces its long-term confidence.

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research
  • 27 Jul 23
PROGRESSIVE: Forterra: Resilient H1, scope for ongoing improvements

Forterra’s first-half results to June and FY23E guidance were largely outlined in its 11 July trading update. The outlook for FY24E remains uncertain; but even with no improvement in housebuilding volumes, the group believes profitability could be supported by its own initiatives and a lower overhang of bricks. We suspect, however, that the underlying market could improve.

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research
  • 11 Jul 23
PROGRESSIVE: Forterra: Resilient H1 but more gradual recovery in H2

Forterra has announced it expects to report ‘resilient’ H1 23E results broadly in line with its expectations despite challenging trading conditions. However, the recent industry-wide fall in brick deliveries and general market uncertainty mean that an anticipated recovery in the second half is likely to be more modest than previously expected. We are cutting our FY23E EBITDA estimate by 20% but believe new efficiency measures will leave the group well positioned to benefit when housebuilding rec

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research
  • 18 May 23
PROGRESSIVE: Forterra: YTD ‘in-line’ as cutting-edge factory is unveiled

In its 16 May trading update, Forterra confirmed that it has traded in line with its expectations in the first four months of FY23E (to 30 April) despite ‘challenging’ market conditions, and continues to guide to a more H2-weighted result for the year driven by an improving housing market. The update was ahead of yesterday's opening of its highly efficient Desford brick factory, which, in light of recovering brick industry stock levels, has led the group to temporarily mothball its less-efficien

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research
  • 10 Mar 23
PROGRESSIVE: Forterra: Robust performance amid FY22 challenges

Brick and concrete products group Forterra narrowly beat our estimates in yesterday’s FY22 results, which showed resilient trading despite the chaos following September’s ‘mini-budget’. We have introduced initial estimates for FY23E that assume lower volumes and profits. Our market view, however, suggests that our assumptions on demand may prove conservative, while we believe that the group will benefit from recent investments as the industry recovers from multi-decade lows in inventories.

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research
  • 25 Jan 23
PROGRESSIVE: Forterra plc: Strong FY22 performance, uncertainty ahead

Leading UK brick and concrete products group Forterra confirms in today’s trading update that FY22 adjusted PBT slightly exceeded management expectations despite the housing slowdown after September’s mini-budget. We are slightly ahead of consensus at £69.1m and maintain our estimate, but net debt was significantly better than our forecast. Given the uncertainties in housing, we have not yet issued forecasts for FY23E but believe more clarity may emerge at the final results in March, when

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research
  • 22 Nov 22
PROGRESSIVE: Forterra: Forecasts maintained amid ‘robust’ trading

Leading UK brick and concrete products manufacturer Forterra has confirmed FY22E guidance in today’s trading update, which highlighted ‘robust’ trading for the 10 months to 31 October. We have maintained our FY22E adjusted PBT at £69.1m. We believe that recent sales weakness highlighted by housebuilders could have only limited impact due to the ultra-low inventory levels in the UK brick industry.

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research
  • 22 Nov 22
Forterra: Forecasts maintained amid ‘robust’ trading

Leading UK brick and concrete products manufacturer Forterra has confirmed FY22E guidance in today’s trading update, which highlighted ‘robust’ trading for the 10 months to 31 October. We have maintained our FY22E adjusted PBT at £69.1m. We believe that recent sales weakness highlighted by housebuilders could have only limited impact due to the ultra-low inventory levels in the UK brick industry.

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research
  • 11 Nov 22
Forterra (FORT) - Vox Markets Fund Manager Series - Abby Glennie of abrdn
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  • 28 Jul 22
Forterra: Estimates nudged up after strong interims

We have nudged up our FY22E adj PBT by 3.1% from £67.0m to £69.1m following “strong trading throughout” the first half in this morning’s interim results, which saw a 38% increase in adj PBT to £37.3m and a 45% rise in adj EPS to 13.5p. Both housebuilding and RMI (repair and maintenance) remained strong, the latter boosting demand for the high-margin London Brick range. Capacity was constrained but prices rose by c.30% in six months, supporting margins.

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research
  • 25 May 22
Strong demand and pricing fuel upgrades

We have raised our FY2022E PBT by 11% from £60.2m to £67.0m following yesterday’s AGM trading update, which reports strong trading in the first four months, ahead of management’s expectations. Revenue for the period was 25% ahead of last year, driven by a 6% increase in brick volumes and a second price rise. Statements from the leading housebuilders highlight the strong demand for materials, while low inventories support pricing power.

Companies: Forterra Plc (FORT:LON)Forterra Plc (FORT:LON)

Progressive Equity Research
  • 11 Mar 22
FY results ‘beat’ with ambitious growth plans

Brick and concrete products manufacturer Forterra has delivered FY2021 results slightly ahead of our and market expectations, with a 27% rise in revenue to £370m and an 86% increase in adjusted EBITDA to £70.4m (vs our £67.5m). The FY2021 dividend of 9.9p was also ahead of our forecast of 9.2p, supported by net cash of £41m. FY2022E has started well, with market conditions “remaining highly supportive” amid continuing demand for housing and construction. We introduce FY2022E forecasts that assum

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research
  • 26 Jan 22
Ending FY2021 with strong volumes and cash

Brick and concrete products manufacturer Forterra has confirmed it expects FY2021E results to be in line with its expectations, as strong trading continued in Q4, with better-than-expected cashflow. Pre-IFRS 16 net cash of c.£40m is ahead of management expectations and our forecast of £24m. This has allowed the company to launch a £40m share buyback programme. Other than lifting net cash, our estimates are unchanged. Our adjusted FY2021E PBT estimate of £48.8m translates to a PER of 14.5x. We be

Companies: Forterra Plc

Progressive Equity Research

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15Apr24 13:46 RNS Forterra plc - Annual Report & Accounts 2023 & Notice of AGM 2024
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03Apr24 14:19 RNS Forterra plc - Director/PDMR Shareholding
27Mar24 16:44 RNS Forterra plc - Director/PDMR Shareholding
26Mar24 07:00 RNS Forterra plc - Full Year Results
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