LIBERUM: Building Materials & Housebuilders: Things to watch next week

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 02 Mar 23

02 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 26/07/22

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: Vivo Energy Plc has left the main market of the London Stock Exchange. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Inteliqo Limited, intends to join the Aquis Growth Market. Inteliqo Limited provides sales, marketing and distribution services to technology product owners under long-term distribution agreements. The Company has agreed its first such agreement in respect of the Ipedia iQ product range. The iQ product is a smart translation earphone (ear

Tyman - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Brooge Energy (BROG), Tyman (TYMN), SymBio Pharmaceuticals (4582), Aspire Global (0EAZ), CiiTECH and Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

Tyman - Successfully navigating market challenges

Tyman’s business model stood up well to some unprecedented FY21 supply chain challenges and earnings were slightly above our estimates, despite some lag in recovering higher input costs. Our existing earnings estimates are similarly robust and the group has financial capacity for a more active M&A phase, subject to opportunities arising.

Tyman - Regional variation in resilient markets

Residential markets remain firm and Tyman’s International division has been the star performer so far in H2. At the same time, supply chain challenges have constrained progress more in the other two divisions. We have modestly lowered our FY21 PBT expectations and nudged up FY22, supported by robust markets and normalising margins.

Small Cap Feast 17/11/2021

Banquet Buffet Alumasc Group 242.5p £87.6m (ALU.L) The Alumasc Group plc, the manufacturer and supplier of sustainable building products, systems and solutions, has received London Stock Exchange's Green Economy Mark.  The Alumasc Group plc provides high-quality, low carbon, sustainable building products, systems and solutions which help manage the scarce resources of energy and water in the built environment and improve quality of life for the owner/occupier. Paul Hooper, CEO of The Alumasc G

Enjoying good momentum; factoring in higher margins

CMD - key takeaways

Tyman - More upgrades from ongoing trading momentum

A strong end to FY20 has fed into good momentum at the beginning of FY21 and all three divisions performed ahead of management’s expectations in the first four months of the year. Moreover, Tyman is more optimistic now about the outlook for the remainder of the year. We have raised our earnings estimates by c 10% following similar upgrades with the FY20 results at the beginning of March.

Tyman - Strong end to FY20, positive start to FY21

Tyman successfully navigated a major trading shock from COVID-19 across multiple geographies in FY20, ultimately delivering only a modest earnings reduction. A stronger balance sheet and good trading momentum in the early part of FY21 are positives for investors and our estimates are modestly increased after allowing for FX headwinds. Tyman entered FY21 in a position of strength and, as market pandemic effects recede, strategy and underlying business performance should come more to the fore.

Tyman - Solid end to a challenging year

Tyman’s latest update indicates that trading has remained solid with full-year revenues and EBIT likely to be slightly above consensus. Like-for-like group revenue in the first two months of Q4 was +1% (following on from +3% in Q3). This brings the year-to-date equivalent up to -8%, which is slightly better than half of the rate of decline seen at the interim stage (including the main COVID-19 impact in Q2). Our estimates are modestly increased for this year and unchanged subsequently on an unde

Tyman - Momentum accelerates in Q3

After COVID-19 affected Q2/H1 trading, recovering market conditions in Q3 led to Tyman achieving +3% like-for-like revenue growth in the quarter (and flat in reported terms). In addition, net debt continues to track down. With improved momentum going into Q4, we have reintroduced earnings estimates, which show a c 13% y-o-y reduction in FY20 EPS followed by a 9% rebound in FY21. We have factored in dividends resuming next year, although management is to consider a modest FY20 final payout depend

Tyman - Managing well in the recovery phase

Market conditions have affected Tyman’s regional operations in different ways; with revenues recovering now and a settled funding outlook, the COVID-19 challenges appear to have been navigated well so far. The company typically has a seasonal H2 trading bias; the extent to which the recovery to date can be sustained in this important period will be a key determinant of the full year outturn. Other actions taken should also aid the recovery phase. Our estimates remain suspended at this time.

Tyman - FY19 results and response to COVID-19 impact

Trading uncertainties arising from the coronavirus pandemic are currently overshadowing some positive aspects seen in Tyman’s H219 performance. Steps are being taken to reduce costs and control cash outflows (including cancelling the FY19 final dividend) to manage business liquidity within existing funding facilities and sustain operational agility to respond to normalising conditions when they occur. For now forward guidance has been withdrawn, as have our estimates.

Surface Transforms - New guidance – forecasts under review

Surface Transforms has issued new revenue guidance for FY24, with the company now expecting revenues in the range £17.5-22m. We are withdrawing our previous forecasts for FY24 and withdrawing our price target while we review the impact of the new guidance.

Surface Transforms plc (SCE LN) - Forecasts and valuation withdrawn

We note the regulatory announcement this morning from Surface Transforms and withdraw our estimates and valuation, pending conversations with management.

Morning Note – 16 April 2024

Robust margin and cash performance

Surface Transforms (SCE LN) - Obstacles removed for higher production

Surface has issued a brief Q1 update. Production will ramp-up this year as final new equipment is installed, and manufacturing teething problems recede.

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 16/04/2024

16th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radical Limited for

Dowlais Group - Motoring forward

Dowlais Group’s first set of results were ahead of our expectations, with positive cash generation a highlight despite restructuring and demerger costs. Softer automotive markets will limit margin progress in FY24 towards the double-digit target. Despite this, margins of c 6.5% are still ahead of automotive peers, although the shares trade at a significant discount to our implied generic peer-based valuation.

Morning Note – 9 April 2024

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Morning Note – 4 April 2024

LIBERUM: New Energy Nuggets: Hydrogen - the future is green

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 17 April 24

17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) - A chink of light

Gooch has issued a positive update for H1. Trading has started to recover with stocking levels normalising at industrial and medical devices customers. The outlook is positive with growth returning, and management has confirmed our full year estimates (adjusted for the disposal of EM4). The order book and order flow appear healthy, and net debt is comfortable. Gooch clearly still has plenty to do to lift operating margins from a lacklustre 8.1%, but the transformation plan appears to be back on

Nexteq - FY23 adj EBITDA +4% ahead, FY24E upgrades of +1-10%

Nexteq’s FY23 results show adjusted EBITDA +4% ahead of the +6% upgrade at the January trading update, record FY23 EFCF of $17.4m, and a confident outlook that leads us to reiterate our FY24E revenue and upgrade FY24E gross profit, adj EBITDA, and EFCF by +1-10%. The strategic focus on higher-margin products and customers reducing elevated inventory levels led FY23 group revenue -5% yoy to $114.3m, with Quixant 6% lower at $69.3m and Densitron 2% lower at $45.1m. Effective supply-chain managemen