Take-up was up in European Offices in Q3 21, however vacancy was stable sequentially and lfl growth was negative, especially in France (-4%). Residential Germany was the key driver of the consolidated 0% lfl
Companies: Covivio SA
It looks like the crisis hasn’t impacted Covivio that much. However, both rising vacancy and incentives in the region of Paris in Q2 21 (offices) are a persisting concern. Short-term catch-up continues.
Aside both the unsurprising performances of Hotels (-46%, but RevPar down 84%) and German Residential (+3.4%), European Offices were down 1.1% lfl in Q1 21. Our estimate was a positive 0.5% in Q4 20. Revenue now embarks the rising vacancy of Q2-Q3 20 in full.
The first cracks were confirmed in peripheral locations as far French offices were concerned. Hotels were experiencing the all but surprising collapse without accounting for a strong cut in book values. German residential was supporting the big picture.
The increasing vacancy was the premise of negative organic performance as from Q4 20 in the Office segment. Some recent deliveries could mask an organic decline for a while (Offices), as far as consolidated figures are concerned.
Values were almost stable in H1 20. Neither valuers nor the transaction market itself acted in the new reality. We observed a yield compression of 10-20bp on the full portfolio despite negative macros.
Forget the insignificant (good) Q1 20 figures. The current discount of c. 40% vs. the latest NAV (December 2019) will be consumed by progressive dilution (dividend in scrip), write-off of GAV (10-15% as a minimum), and a remaining ex-post discount of 20-25% only. The safety harness looks therefore insufficient, should values be down by more than the above-mentioned 10-15% mark.
Covivio decided to buy the listed Godewind in Germany, or a fully cash €1.2bn deal. It will extend its European Offices platform (France / Italy) following its successful residential German investment and alongside its Hotels branch. The recent share price catch up, from €90 in August 2019 to €110 today, translates the global shareholders’ race for yield, pushing the market to value Offices well above NAVs. The party continues.
The share now trades far above its latest NNNAV. Even if we do not detect an emergency, we believe that some end-markets are at risk. We do not identify a buy opportunity on Covivio and stick to our negative stance.
The positive revaluations were close to zero in both French and Italian Offices, once the pipeline’s contribution is excluded. The good news was… Berlin and its 9% value growth in H1 19 vs. December 2018, thanks both healthy lfl growth and very strong additional yield compression. However, the full impact of the rent-freeze policy is not included at all. The next imprtant date being February 2020 (FY 19 figures), the market will keep in mind today’s good news for a while.
Nice quarter with positive news on the organic growth front as well as on the pre-let ratio concerning 2019 expected deliveries. Capital gains (margin) on disposals are now close to the neutral area, but we do not expect massive negative revaluations by the end of H1 19 according to Q1 figures. However, the market cannot expect significant valuation improvements on the standalone portfolio (excluding pipeline delivery). Released EPS momentum will slow from H2 19.
Covivio is an other property company to announce (slight) deleveraging. This behaviour is now spreading to all asset classes as Covivio owns offices (Grand Paris, Italy), homes (Germany), hotels (Europe). Compression yield probably stopped on H2 18 (Offices/France). Germany shows another strong year with additional 12% revaluation.
FdR released its FY17 results. Rental income increased by 3.9% yoy at €927.4m, with a portfolio valued at €21bn (+10% yoy). The company has agreed to sell €1.4bn worth of assets to reduce its exposure to Telecom Italia and the non-core offices in France. FdR also extended its Spanish exposure, with the acquisition for €559m of 17 hotels. Overall, the published numbers were above our expectations.
FdR published an H1 recurring net profit of €198.3m, up 12% yoy. Rental revenues recorded 3% growth (organic +1.9%, of which 4% from German residential). The occupation rate stood at 96.6%. LTV was around 42.9% vs. 44.6% in FY16.
With acquisitions in Berlin, Milan, Barcelona and Madrid, the portfolio value increased by 9% yoy (3% lfl), standing at €21bn. EPRA NAV was up a notable 10% to €6.6bn (€88.4 per share). The development pipeline reached €4.1bn, of which 83% in offices (Paris, Milan, Ly
We have updated our model on FDR following the €508m worth of acquisitions made in Q1 and the €400m capital increase.
Acquisitions were primarily made in Spanish Hotels (€305m at yield 5.7%) and in German Resi for €180m at a yield 3.8%, and finally €22m in Italy at a yield 6%.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Covivio SA.
We currently have 0 research reports from 0
We see the UK Government’s Net Zero Strategy as being overall helpful but not especially definitive. Amongst our coverage group, Drax Group (DRX LN) and Velocys (VLS LN) benefit from the Humberside CCS cluster prioritisation and Velocys from SAF support. The amount of renewables is likely to boost the need for flexibility solutions where Drax, Gore Street (GSF LN) and SIMEC Atlantis (SAE LN) can benefit. Hydrogen companies ITM (ITM LN) and Powerhouse Energy (PHE LN) are likely to find support. T
Companies: ADN DRX GSF ITM NESF PHE SAE SIT STRLNG TLG VLS
The third quarter continued to enjoy record CIB revenues and loan provision recoveries. Consensus expectations have now largely aligned with our projections, thus leaving limited upside potential in our view.
Companies: Barclays PLC
Companies: Plus500 Ltd.
Updating at the end of H1, Urban Logistics REIT (“ULR”) continued to deploy capital, with 2 further transactions in the last weeks of H1 bringing the total to £103m since the last raise (£109m in Jul-21). There is a further £50m in advanced stages and a £400m pipeline beyond that. Yields are in line with expectations and assets are pregnant with active management opportunities, which ULR thrives on. The board is seeking to move to Premium List to facilitate future growth. We leave forecasts unch
Companies: Urban Logistics REIT plc
The bottom line largely exceeded expectations driven by the stronger top-line resilience and loan provision recoveries. Although the next quarters could continue to enjoy further provision recoveries, the expected interest rate hikes should support the top-line trajectory.
Companies: Lloyds Banking Group plc
No joiners today.
No leavers today.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
ATOM headquartered in Leeds, focussed on the large-scale production of green hydrogen and ammonia intends to join AIM towards the end of the year. ATOME intends to be spun-out from AIM-listed President Energy Plc, an oil and gas company which has incubated and financially supported ATOME to date, by way of a dividend in specie and flotation.
Devolver Digital to join AIM, an award-winning digital video games pu
Companies: SAE HMI MNO MSMN NSCI OMG PCA
No Joiners Today
No Leavers Today
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL ; TSXV: AXL) , the oil and gas exploration and production company, has conditionally raised approximately £8.8m and is due to complete its dual listing on AIM on 25 Oct. Market cap c£13.1m.
Devolver Digital to join AIM, an award-winning digital video games publisher and developer in the indie games space. Recently awarded indie 'Publisher of the Year 2021' by GamesIndustry.biz.
Companies: ZYT CIC DMTR GILD LMS MMAG PYC SMRT SBI
No Joiners Today.
No Leavers Today.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Devolver Digital to join AIM, an award-winning digital video games publisher and developer in the indie games space. Recently awarded indie 'Publisher of the Year 2021' by GamesIndustry.biz. Offer TBA. Due early Nov.
Life Science REIT to join AIM raising up to £100m. This will be the first London listed real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on UK life science properties providing investors with exposure
Companies: SYS1 ARE SO4 SNG TMG TMT OHG IDE KIBO MRL
Currently, Gore Street Energy Storage Fund (GSF) primarily relies on revenue from frequency response services, including Dynamic Containment (DC), to estimate near-term returns. The dislocation in the UK power market has led to a sharp rise in returns available from energy arbitrage leaving GSF’s assets well placed to benefit from this increased volatility. In September, those of GSF’s GB storage assets that participated in the actively-traded GB power markets generated revenues that were signif
Companies: Gore Street Energy Storage Fund PLC
TMT Investments PLC have provided a portfoloio update. We have published research on this which is attached and a snapshot of the research is below.
The venture capital company investing in high-growth technology companies has moved one step closer to its first IPO driven exit. In a portfolio update announced this week TMT noted that its portfolio company Backblaze, Inc. publicly filed with the SEC on 18 October 2021. TMT currently holds a 9.97% interest in Backblaze, Inc. (pre its expected fun
Companies: TMT Investments
The Board of Nippon Active Value Fund (NAVF) plans to implement a share issuance programme to raise
capital for further investment through the issue of up to 300 million Ordinary Shares or C Shares over
the next 12 months, following the publication of the necessary prospectus. NAVF is proposing to raise
further capital to pursue its proven model of activist investment in quoted Japanese companies. This
will facilitate larger holdings and accelerate the process of engaging with management. It
Companies: Nippon Active Value Fund Plc
The quarter enjoyed record provision recoveries and strong fee income generation. The coming quarters should remain supportive. The accelerated capital accumulation enabled management to announce a new $2bn share buyback.
Companies: HSBC Holdings Plc
Anglo American (AAL LN) – On track to achieve 2021 production guidance following continuing production recovery in Q3
Antofagasta (ANTO LN) - US Forest Service proposed a 20-year ban on mining in the watershed of the Boundary Waters in Minnesota
Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – BUY - Valuation 33p - Bushveld back on track with solid Q3 production and cost report
Condor Gold* (CNR LN) - Valuation 102.5p – Infill drilling completed ahead of PFS/FS at the La Mestiza Open Pit
TMC the Metals Comp
Companies: TMC ANTO BMN CNR WRES PXC RMM SHG
Marlowe has raised £50m though a placing (at 907p) to fund the £25m earnings-enhancing acquisition of EssentialSkillz, a leading compliance eLearning business, as well as to provide £25m of additional firepower for potential acquisitions. Group run-rate revenues and Adj EBITDA now stand at c£335m and c£60m respectively. We update our forecasts to reflect the transaction (no change at the Adj EPS level as the contribution from EssentialSkillz is offset by dilution from the over-raise). A T+2 EV/A
Companies: Marlowe Plc
Exactly one year ago, the FTSE 100 closed at 5,862, having fallen 100 points on the day, the lowest point since mid-May 2020, due in part, to the strength of sterling vs US$ at $1.34. One year on, the FTSE 100 has risen to 7,119, a rise of 21%, it remains 7% below the peak in January 2020. From an international viewpoint, US and European markets continue to trade at record highs. The US Federal Reserve is close to withdrawing some of its economic support this year as inflation picks up and the e
Companies: AMYT BAG BVC BRSD CLG CML FBD GDWN INV MACF MNZS MIO NRR NSF NBI MATD PREM QFI RUA SCS STVG SUR SNX UPGS VAST VLS