Delivery of strategic priorities and margin gains in Q3

The group’s strategic focus on profitability has made further progress in the all-important quarter. G4M is therefore confident the actions it has taken during FY24 to improve gross margins, and reduce costs and net debt, position it well for profitable growth in FY25. Our target price is left unchanged for now at 182p. This is based on 5.0x EV/EBITDA. Margin expansion, better FCF and lower ND, which are all pivotal issues, should support a higher multiple though. We therefore re-iterate a Buy r

PROGRESSIVE: Gear4music: Strong Q3 gross margin progress in line with new operating model priorities

G4M’s pattern of trading across the Q3 peak period (to 31 December) closely mirrored that seen in H1. UK revenues were marginally higher, while total group revenues were 6% lower than last year, reflecting the challenging market conditions in Europe. A strong 260bp advance in gross margin more than offset the revenue decline, delivering a £0.4m increase in gross profit against Q3 FY23. Combined with cost reductions that were in line with Board expectations, the group continues resolutely to focu

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 14/11/2023

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: Ergomed has left AIM. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** 9 November: Chapel Down Group ITF: England's leading and largest wine producer with an award-winning range of sparkling and still wines, under the Chapel Down brand. The Company owns, leases and sources from 1,023 acres of vineyards in South East England announces its Admission to AIM after its transfer from the Aquis Apex market. The Company will not be raising new capital or providing

Margin expanding and FCF improving

Gear4music has made good progress in H1 against its objective to establish a higher margin business by prioritising gross margins and reducing costs. PBT guidance has been re-iterated on lower sales, and capex savings see ND forecasts improve. Our target price is left unchanged for the time-being at 182p. This is based on 5.0x EV/EBITDA. Margin expansion, better FCF and lower ND, which are all pivotal issues, should support a higher multiple, though, even on lower sales which should increase mar

PROGRESSIVE: Gear4music: Switching the levers to protect profitability against a challenging trading backdrop

G4M’s interim results clearly reflect the group’s previously expounded prioritisation of improved gross margins and lower costs over revenue growth against a difficult market backdrop. The former goal delivered an 80bps increase in gross margin, while the cash savings initiatives announced in October will bear fruit from H2 and beyond. Hence, despite G4M resetting FY24E revenue expectations to £144m (vs FY23’s £152m), the FY24E adjusted profit outlook remains in line with consensus market expect

H1 update confirms progress on margin & efficiency

Good progress was made in H1 prioritising gross margin and cost reductions to enhance profitability in the current challenging backdrop. Annualised cash savings of £4m were made, c£1.7m (>4%) from opex and c£2.3m (c30%) from capex which, alongside lower stock, reinforces net debt reduction. Growing forecast confidence supports ongoing re-rating.

PROGRESSIVE: Gear4music: H1 trading prioritising gross margin and cost savings ahead of revenue growth

The shape of G4M’s trading performance in H1 (to 30 September) clearly reflects the strategic prioritisation of gross margin and cost efficiencies over revenue growth in a challenging market. This strategy was clearly signposted at the FY23 results in June. While total revenue fell back 6% in the period (£62.6m vs £66.3m), an offsetting 80bps gross margin improvement holds the expected gross profit decline to 3% (£17.0m vs £17.4m). With H2 set to benefit from the £4m of annualised cash savings i

Plans intact to drive margin/profitability and FCF

Trading in the 1st 5 months has been in line with expectations and G4M is well positioned for the upcoming peak period. Pre-owned has got off to a good start in the UK, and has just launched in Europe too. Development of this incremental revenue stream looks timely given the cost-of-living crisis has boosted the circular economy. In the plausible event profit forecasts are delivered via higher profit margins (a pivotal issue) on less sales, this may be a catalyst for rating expansion (on 3x EV/E

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 20 Jun 23

20th June 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objecti

PROGRESSIVE: Gear4music: Adopting a balanced approach for FY24E

G4M delivered FY23 full year results in line with the guidance given in its April trading update. EBITDA came in at £7.4m with year-end net debt of £14.5m. The consumer backdrop remains challenging, especially for retailers of primarily discretionary items. In March, G4M launched its second-hand platform, which plays to both customer service and convenience as well as to its own circular economy credentials. This enhanced margin service will be expanded in terms of product and geographic coverag

Plans intact - focus on driving margin and profitability

FY23 was a tough year, given several external macro headwinds on top of the margin drag from its internal decision to reduce elevated stock levels. If the goal was to reduce ND while also embedding future growth initiatives, then FY23 should be seen as a success. Conditions for discretionary spending remain difficult across its markets, so the focus is on leveraging recent investments, increasing product margins and driving efficiency. Although H2-weighted, FY24 expectations look underpinned by

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 06 Apr 23

6 April 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective

PROGRESSIVE: Gear4Music - Forecasts cut on weaker trading, but net debt reduction beats market expectations

Weaker-than-expected Q4 trading, notably in February and March against soft comparatives, has resulted in G4M guiding to an FY23E EBITDA outturn of between £7.3m and £7.7m, below market expectations. Gross margin of 25.7% (vs 27.8% in FY22) reflected inventory reduction in a tough trading environment. However, year-end net debt of £14.5m is £3m better than expectations of £17.5m, and comfortably within G4M’s borrowing facility.

Margin hits forecasts, but debt substantially reduced

In tough conditions for discretionary spending, G4M grew sales in Q4, implying market share gains continued. Some of this growth, however, reflects efforts to reduce elevated stock levels. This has impacted gross margin and profits, with Mar’23/Mar’24 EBITDA downgraded c15%. However, the goal of reducing net debt was a success, falling more than markets expected and rolling through to outer years. Leverage is well within the bank’s covenants. Margins and FCF can build from here in the absence of

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 1 December 2023

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

HY results - strong growth continues

Allenby Capital - Nightcap plc - Update

Nightcap has announced the acquisition of Piano Works, the late-night live music venue currently operating at a venue in Farringdon and also within Nightcap’s Barrio Covent Garden site. The headline acquisition cost is £200k, funded through a £1m equity placing at 6p per share. Based on the success of Piano Works residency within Barrio Covent Garden, there is the opportunity to roll the Piano Works concept to other venues in the Nightcap portfolio. The Company has also announced a trading updat

Allenby Capital - Nightcap plc - Interims

Nightcap’s interims for the 6m to end December 2023 were in line with expectations, as such, we make no changes to our forecasts. The number of bars at the period end was 46 up from 36 a year earlier – the expansion driven by the June 2023 acquisition of Dirty Martini. The portfolio expansion led to a year-on-year revenue increase of 42% to £33.4m and 5% growth in underlying EBITDA (IAS 17) to £2.1m. Post period end the Company announced the acquisition of Piano Works funded by a £1m equity rais

Marks & Spencer+ (MKS, House Stock at 255p) - 7Y FS HSBC UK tie-up– another brick in the wall

FY23 results preview