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An American Dream
Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,857 74.3 0.2% | Mkt Cap: 41,350m
- Published:
02 Oct 2023 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
20 -
The prospect of a US primary listing feels more likely than ever
With a new American CEO, change to US Dollar reporting and 50% of profits generated in North America, Diageo is looking more and more like a US company. As such, it is perhaps not inconceivable that this UK-listed company (GB est. c.6% group EBIT) could seek to hop across the pond and establish a primary listing in the US.
Diageo would not be the first to pursue a primary US listing
Diageo would not be the first major UK-listed company to switch to the US, with several examples already YTD (within we explore the US listing moves of CRH, Ferguson and Flutter). On CRH, we note that the proposed change in primary listing to the US received 95% voting shareholder approval despite significant UK ownership (c.28% of shareholders, a similar proportion to that at Diageo).
The rewards of a primary US listing likely outweigh the drawbacks...
While the location of Diageo''s primary listing has no impact on the operational performance of the business, the prospect of: i) potential to tap into the more premium valuation of US distillers (i.e. Brown Forman); ii) likely indexation in the SandP500 and iii) increased ability to attract top management talent would likely outweigh the loss of a FTSE100 listing.
... however, Diageo is an important UK asset
Diageo''s position as the largest exporter of Scotch Whisky, an important UK export, would likely mean that a shift in its primary listing would be politically sensitive.
So, is a US listing imminent? No, but an eventual shift is a possibility
While a case can be made, we do not expect an announcement any time soon. However, should valuation discrepancies continue, we believe that an eventual shift is a real possibility and unwittingly or not, Diageo has already started to prepare some groundwork by changing its reporting to US Dollars from FY24.