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19 May 2025
Q325 trading update & 15 questions for management
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Q325 trading update & 15 questions for management
Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,798 -440.5 (-1.3%) | Mkt Cap: 40,031m
- Published:
19 May 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
18 -
Summary of the Q325 trading update
Diageo Q3 LFL sales grew +5.9% (vols +2.8%; price /mix +3.1%), benefitting from c.+4%-pt impact from favourable phasing which is mostly expected to unwind in Q4. Around 2/3rds of the Q3 phasing tailwind was seen in North America which grew LFL sales +6.2% and benefitted from a pull-forward of imported shipments in anticipation of tariffs and continued tequila restocking given the strength of consumer demand for Don Julio. US spirits Q3 LFL sales grew +7% on value depletion growth of +2%. The remaining 1/3 of the Q3 phasing benefit was recorded in LAC where LFL sales grew +28.5%.
News
We highlight that Diageo sees opportunity for substantial disposals (beyond regular portfolio trimming) with a view to maximising shareholder value.
Earnings
Our FY25e-FY27e EPS estimates remain materially unchanged.
Investment thesis
We see risk that further moderation of Diageo''s US growth leads to earnings downgrades and a de-rating.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Underperform rating. Our TP moves from GBp1,775 to GBp1,720 (driven by higher forecast net debt in our EV-based target price derivation).
15 questions for management
Assuming you hold your dividend flat, what do you see as the underlying (ex. disposals) ability of the business to de-lever in FY26 on free cash flow of c.USD3bn?