LIBERUM: CEO Video: Graham Prothero, MJ Gleeson plc:

H2 outlook supported by early signs of recovery

Gleeson’s interim results were well flagged in the January update. The H1’24 outturn reflects a robust performance against a challenging backdrop. PBT reduced to £7.2m in H1’24 (H1’23: £16.1m), with 29% of our FY24 PBT forecast delivered in H1 (typically c.48%). We are confident in an H2 recovery given: 1) the strength of the Gleeson Homes forward order book (586 plots vs. 319 at Dec. ‘22), 2) improving reservation rates into the busier selling season (0.50 in the last five weeks vs. 0.41 in H1)

LIBERUM: MJ Gleeson: Signs of recovery

LIBERUM: Housebuilders: Improving inquiries into the Spring

LIBERUM: MJ Gleeson: Stronger order book but additional costs

Investment case remains despite site cost impact

Gleeson has released a slightly early H1 update. Most KPIs are tracking in line, including completions (769 delivered in H1). However, additional costs relating to a number of older sites at Gleeson Homes, alongside extended site durations, sales incentives and multi-unit sales, are now expected to result in a reduction to gross margins of c.1.5%-2.0% vs. previous expectations. Alongside other minor forecast adjustments, this reduces our Group adj. PBT forecasts by 24%/27% in FY24/FY25. Notwiths

LIBERUM: Housebuilders: Planning likely to slow volume growth

Trading in line, with sales rate gradually improving

Gleeson’s AGM Statement confirms that it continues to trade in line with expectations. As anticipated, Gleeson Homes has experienced an improvement in its sales rate, which is expected to step up further as it enters the post-Christmas/Spring selling season, with stabilising/reducing mortgage rates (<5% fixed rate now available at 90% LTV) supportive of demand. Gleeson Land has made one sale in the year to date, with six consented sites supporting expected activity levels in the remainder of the

LIBERUM: MJ Gleeson: Improving confidence

LIBERUM: Building Materials & Housebuilders: Things to watch next week

Reassuring outlook, with return to growth anticipated

FY23 results confirm an in line outturn, as well as reassuring on the outlook. Whilst the sales rate reduced over the summer months (0.43 in the 9 weeks to 1st Sep. vs. 0.54 in 2022), in line with peers, management anticipates a recovery during the autumn selling season. This is supported by a steadying mortgage market, its sales and marketing initiatives, and continued interest in multi-unit transactions. Gleeson Land started FY24 in a strong position with six consented sites and it has already

LIBERUM: MJ Gleeson: More resilience & more growth

LIBERUM: Housebuilders: Darkest before dawn

LIBERUM: Housebuilders: Rate peak nears & Gove less BANANAs

LIBERUM: Housebuilders: More confidence as rates stabilise

Surface Transforms plc (SCE LN) - Forecasts and valuation withdrawn

We note the regulatory announcement this morning from Surface Transforms and withdraw our estimates and valuation, pending conversations with management.

Surface Transforms - New guidance – forecasts under review

Surface Transforms has issued new revenue guidance for FY24, with the company now expecting revenues in the range £17.5-22m. We are withdrawing our previous forecasts for FY24 and withdrawing our price target while we review the impact of the new guidance.

Morning Note – 16 April 2024

Robust margin and cash performance

Surface Transforms (SCE LN) - Obstacles removed for higher production

Surface has issued a brief Q1 update. Production will ramp-up this year as final new equipment is installed, and manufacturing teething problems recede.

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 16/04/2024

16th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radical Limited for

Dowlais Group - Motoring forward

Dowlais Group’s first set of results were ahead of our expectations, with positive cash generation a highlight despite restructuring and demerger costs. Softer automotive markets will limit margin progress in FY24 towards the double-digit target. Despite this, margins of c 6.5% are still ahead of automotive peers, although the shares trade at a significant discount to our implied generic peer-based valuation.

Morning Note – 9 April 2024

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Morning Note – 4 April 2024

LIBERUM: New Energy Nuggets: Hydrogen - the future is green

Nexteq - FY23 adj EBITDA +4% ahead, FY24E upgrades of +1-10%

Nexteq’s FY23 results show adjusted EBITDA +4% ahead of the +6% upgrade at the January trading update, record FY23 EFCF of $17.4m, and a confident outlook that leads us to reiterate our FY24E revenue and upgrade FY24E gross profit, adj EBITDA, and EFCF by +1-10%. The strategic focus on higher-margin products and customers reducing elevated inventory levels led FY23 group revenue -5% yoy to $114.3m, with Quixant 6% lower at $69.3m and Densitron 2% lower at $45.1m. Effective supply-chain managemen

Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) - A chink of light

Gooch has issued a positive update for H1. Trading has started to recover with stocking levels normalising at industrial and medical devices customers. The outlook is positive with growth returning, and management has confirmed our full year estimates (adjusted for the disposal of EM4). The order book and order flow appear healthy, and net debt is comfortable. Gooch clearly still has plenty to do to lift operating margins from a lacklustre 8.1%, but the transformation plan appears to be back on

PROGRESSIVE: Watkin Jones: Rising rents attract investors back to market

Residential-for-rent developer and manager Watkin Jones on 25 January delivered FY22 results that were broadly in line with our expectations. Continuing strong demand for its core rental developments, as highlighted in October, was hampered by delays in investment decisions following the mini-budget. We believe recovery has begun, albeit on a slightly shallower trajectory, and current market conditions may offer the group opportunities. Surveys show continuing rental growth, attracting back inve