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26 Sep 2024
Quietly confident
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Quietly confident
Halma plc (HLMA:LON) | 3,664 1465.6 1.1% | Mkt Cap: 13,910m
- Published:
26 Sep 2024 -
Author:
Gjani Bruno BG -
Pages:
10 -
Halma''s trading update was light on detail....
Halma''s H1 trading update was light on detail - it simply noted that orders had grown, and book-to-bill was above 1.0x; organic revenue growth was described as ''good'' (Cons at 7.0%); margin was noted to have improved modestly YoY (Consensus +70bps). No colour was provided on individual sector trends. Guidance was reiterated on an organic basis, although a steeper FX headwind was guided to (no surprise there). All-in-all, there didn''t seem to be much in the trading statement that would lead Consensus to revise underlying assumptions.
However near-term risk-reward is starting to screen as being more favourable...
What appears interesting is that Consensus models the largest sequential revenue decline (H1''25 over H2''24) in EandA on record, even though Halma has reassured on the demand in Photonics being sustained in the near term and the fact that Spectroscopy is likely to have bottomed. We think Environmental and Analysis will deliver organic revenue growth of c25% in H1 (Cons at 15%).
While Healthcare is likely to act as a drag - we expect modest declines YoY - it should not be enough to offset a beat that should come through in EandA. At the same time, as we look out to H2''25, the prospects of a recovery in Healthcare and Spectroscopy appear more likely. The pace of the recovery is hard to call of course, but Consensus estimates at least for now don''t seem to embed much of an H2 step up to reflect this. As such risk-reward into H1''25 results appears skewed to the upside (potential H1 profit beat accompanied by positive message regarding H2''25 development).
Our TP moves up to 2650p from 2200p; Neutral reiterated
We have updated our model to reflect stronger growth prospects in EandA, where risk-reward appears most strongly skewed to the upside. As a result, our adjusted operating profit forecasts for FY''25/26 move up by c6% and our TP up to 2,650p (from 2,200). Neutral reiterated.