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14 Mar 2024
Staying on course
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Staying on course
Halma plc (HLMA:LON) | 3,664 1465.6 1.1% | Mkt Cap: 13,910m
- Published:
14 Mar 2024 -
Author:
Gjani Bruno BG -
Pages:
11 -
Strong growth in EandA offsets a softer development in Healthcare
YTD orders were noted to have grown and on an absolute basis are ''close'' to revenue (i..e book-to-bill slightly below 1.0x). A similar message was provided in H1 implying that there have been no meaningful changes in order trends since. Group organic revenue growth was noted to have been good and supported by a ''strong'' development at EandA. Safety sales were noted to have grown at a ''good'' rate while Healthcare''s development was noted to reflect weaker second half market trends (we interpret that to mean down modestly). In all, we think Consensus Healthcare sales will need to be adjusted down slightly while EandA and Safety are revised higher to compensate.
FY''23/24 guidance was confirmed which we think should reassure
Halma confirmed its FY''23/24 adjusted PBT guidance. It continues to expect adjusted PBT that is in line with Consensus expectations (which before the IMS was GBP388.5m; range GBP376-394m). We think this is relatively encouraging given Halma''s guidance reflects a strong sequential margin recovery in EandA and continued progress in Safety. A reiteration thus confirms that the recovery in profitability is on track at both divisions. At the same time, it indicates that Healthcare''s margin likely remained robust; softer topline trends within this business was not enough to threaten Group profitability.
Relative valuation is beginning to look more appealing; Neutral rating maintained
We revise our H2 margin assumption at EandA higher as it sounds as if the steep H2 margin recovery is on track while incorporating the recently announced acquisition of Rover which drives our headline profit assumptions c3% higher (in line with Cons) and our TP to 2,200p (from 2,100p). While we view the shares as fairly valued, after a solid H2 Halma''s relative valuation may start to look appealing to some investors. For instance, on Consensus 12m fwd EV/EBIT it now trades at c10% discount to Spirax where...