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We expect XXL to report Q4/20 EBIT of NOK 96m, 10% above latest Factset consensus of NOK 87m. The positive deviation is explained by an estimated gross margin of 39.0% vs. cons. 38.1%, as we expect profitability to benefit from limited discounting in the quarter. Despite warm weather and poor snow conditions we estimate like-for-like sales growth of 7.8%, driven by strong demand for sporting goods and outdoor equipment across the company's home markets.
Companies: XXL ASA
Arctic Securities
Q3/20 EBITDA of NOK 413m vs. Factset consensus of NOK 367m Solid Q3/20 gross margin of 40.5%, up from 37.3% in Q3/19 LFL sales growth of 16.1% Y/Y driven by 21.1% LFL growth in Norway We expect share price and estimates to move higher today
We expect XXL to report Q3/20 EBITDA of NOK 325m, 11% below latest Factset consensus of NOK 367m. The negative deviation is explained by a combination of lower sales growth and lower gross margins. We estimate Q3/20 sales of NOK 2.9bn, up 19% Y/Y driven by strong demand for sporting goods in all XXL's home markets. We expect gross margins to be slightly down Y/Y, explained by lower supplier bonuses and NOK weakening.
Strong Q1/20 sales driven by 25% Y/Y growth in e-commerce Massive clearance sales resulting in soft Q1/20 gross margin of 27.9% Negative Q1/20 EBITDA explained by increased overhead costs Norway and Sweden have started Q2/20 on a positive note
We expect Q1/20 results to be a non-event given the clearly communicated soft January with the subsequent clearance sale in February and March. As investor focus has turned from a disappointing winter season to the ongoing Covid-19 uncertainty, we expect an update on April 2020 sales to be key for short-term share price momentum. Following 7 quarters of negative LFL revenue growth (including Q1/20), we expect actual April sales to surprise on the upside.
Pål Wibe’s first day as new CEO of XXL was an eventful one, with the share price soaring 85% on the back of the balance sheet restructuring news. While the Nordic sporting goods market remains challenging, XXL has now secured 18 months to improve profitability without constantly worrying about its debt covenant. While we continue to see downside risk for consensus estimates for 2020, we expect improving results from 2021 onwards to drive the share price higher.
XXL announces new bank financing of NOK 1,450m XXL also announces underwritten rights issue of NOK 400m Rights issue guaranteed by Altor, Ferd and Odin Rights issue structures to Altor avoids mandatory offer obligation
Despite having significantly reduced net interest-bearing debt over the past 12 months, we expect the leverage ratio to breach the debt covenant of 4.0x in Q1/20. The ratio increase is explained by a drop in 12-month rolling EBITDA, which we expect will continue to decline through Q2/20 and Q3/20. While we continue to view XXL’s balance sheet issues as fixable, we reduce our target price from NOK 10 to 6 and downgrade our recommendation from Hold to Sell.
Bjørn Rune Gjelsten to become 50% owner of Gresvig Olav Nils Sunde will own 50% of Gresvig and Sport 1 34 out of 94 owned stores to close as part of restructuring Market consolidation positive for XXL in terms of price pressure
XXL’s main competitor Gresvig declares bankruptcy More equity needed to compete rebranding to Intersport Long-term impact on XXL likely to be positive Challenging 2019/2020 winter season to become worse
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on XXL ASA. We currently have 11 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Strix has reported FY23 results to 31 December 2023 with adjusted PAT of £20.1m, in line with our updated forecast and company guidance provided in January. Revenue grew 35.2% to £144.6m, benefitting from the full year inclusion of the Billi acquisition, albeit slightly below our forecast of £151.0m. Its core Kettle Controls division also performed robustly, growing 2.7%, ahead of the broader market and indicating market share gain. Recent acquisitions have noticeably improved the Group’s growth
Companies: Strix Group PLC
Zeus Capital
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Liberum
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Cavendish
Cohort announces that its subsidiary SEA (Systems Engineering and Assessment Ltd.) has been awarded a major contract by the UK’s Ministry of Defence to provide Electronic Warfare Counter Measures (Increment 1a) (EWCM 1a) to the Royal Navy with a total value of at least £135m. This includes provision and support of SEA’s Trainable Decoy Launcher System, Ancilia. At the FY 24 interim results Cohort had commented on an overall “increased tempo” of order intake. The Group reported a closing order b
Companies: Cohort plc
Equity Development
Positives emerged, particularly in H2, as the recovery commenced within the kettle controls market. Billi was the architect of the revenue improvement, with LAICA also delivering a double-digit increase in the top line. Margins improved, notwithstanding a change in the mix. Encouragingly, investor concerns on debt were allayed with the careful management of cash, and latterly as bankers raised the net debt/EBITDA covenant to 2.75x. With further emphasis on costs and cash conservation and a lik
Companies: Luceco PLC
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
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Hardman & Co
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Quadrise continues to advance towards commercial revenues for its innovative fuel and biofuel technologies, with each of its projects approaching key milestones in 2024. Preparatory steps for the MSC Shipmanagement (MSC) fuel trials are now complete and fuel supply agreements are nearing finalisation. Quadrise will achieve its first licensing revenues on the successful completion of Valkor’s project financing (timing uncertain). Quadrise also successfully concluded its Morocco trial, paving the
Companies: Quadrise PLC
Edison
Judges Scientific is a group involved in the buy and build of scientific instrumentation businesses. Testament to the strength of its highly engineered offer and global diversified customer base, total revenue increased an impressive 20.2% to £136.1m (organic +15%), with adj. PBT +7.5% to £31.7m (FY2022: £28.3m), 3.1% ahead of our estimate of £30.5m. Fully diluted (FD) adjusted EPS increased a more muted 2.6% (impacted by anticipated tax headwinds) to 368.5p (basic adj EPS 374.5p), 3.4% ahead of
Companies: Judges Scientific plc
WHIreland
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Canaccord Genuity
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Gelion has reported in line H1 FY24 results that demonstrate continued strong cash management and steady progress in its pursuit of next generation lithium-sulphur battery technologies. Encouraging early test results justify last year’s IP acquisitions and validate Gelion’s Li-S battery technology plan, with additional progress expected to be reported in H2 alongside its pursuit of a strategic partner for its planned Advanced Commercial Prototyping Centre (ACPC) facility in Australia. There is a
Companies: Gelion PLC
Forterra’s FY23 (to 31 December) earnings were slightly higher than guidance, which was raised in January, with resilient pricing partly offsetting a steep fall in demand among its main end users, large housebuilders. Our estimates are broadly unchanged, other than reflecting a more conservative stance on the final dividend. Despite a cautious tone in the outlook statement, we believe the largest housebuilders may now rebound more strongly than smaller peers.
Companies: Forterra Plc
Progressive Equity Research
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