Prelims are 3% ahead of expectations, through slightly better LFL growth and slightly less cost growth. Of the £33m YoY PBT growth, c£9m relates to the favourable FX tailwind. Based on current FX rates, we estimate the headwind in FY16 will exceed that, possibly c£11-12m. End markets remain favourable and HWDN is investing in capability to continue profitable expansion – now with a 800 depot target (619 now) and additional trials in Europe. An extra £15m of opex (2.5%) is flagged as part of this investment, not all of which appears to be in the numbers. The higher base in FY could shield consensus forecasts from the mix of FX and opex but maybe not all of it.
