Auctus on Friday - 03/11/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.80 per share: On Track to start drilling in early November - 3Q23 production of 324 boe/d and cash of A$5.7 mm at the end of September were near our expectations. This includes 101 bbl/d gross production for Anshof that was shut-in on 19 September after reaching the regulatory limit for test production. Until that date the Anshof-3 well produced at a stable rate of 114 bbl/d, which is above the

Q3: A profits shortfall on the back of weak gas trading casts a shadow over the upstream

Unlike its peers, bp posted a big miss versus estimates as the company’s quarterly profits remained 13% below the consensus figures. A strong oil trading result was offset by weaker gas trading in the quarter due to subdued volatility. The overall operational performance was supported by increased hydrocarbon production. Despite the consolidation trend in the US, bp is focusing on organic growth for its oil and gas portfolio at high prices while looking at inorganic growth in the energy transiti

Dangled in the “G” anomaly after CEO’s sudden departure begs questions

In an unexpected move, bp announced CEO Bernard Looney’s resignation over his failure to disclose transparently the number of past relationships with colleagues. He will be replaced by CFO Murray Auchincloss on an interim basis. Looney took over the job in early 2020 and immediately introduced a strategic overhaul that should drive the company through the energy transition and towards a net zero path. While the overall strategy of the company may not change, the CEO’s surprising departure (shoul

Auctus on Friday - 04/08/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Growing production. New Anshof well to be spudded in September - 2Q23 production was 317 boe/d reaching 366 boe/d in June and including ~115 bbl/d at Anshof. Anshof-3 production performance continues to exceed expectations with strong pressure support and deliverability with no water production. Work-over activities at Zistersdorf and Gaiselberg (Vienna basin) in mid-August are ex

Q2: saved by promising projects, cash returns

Among its peers, bp reported the biggest annual decline in profits (c.-70%). Across the business segments, refining and products suffered the most with low margins and prolonged costly maintenance, and weaker oil trading. Despite the negative surplus due to a 46% drop in operating cash flow, bp committed to returning $1.5bn in buybacks in Q3 and announced a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend. Disclosure in the energy transition businesses as of the next quarter is a welcome development.

AXL LN/CN, LBE LN, PTAL LN/TAL CN, SOUC LN/SOU CN, VLE CN, ANGS LN, AST LN, BP LN, CEG LN, COP US, EME LN, EQNR NO, GTE LN/CN/US, ITH LN, KIST LN, TCF CN, TRIN LN, TTE FP, UOG LN

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Zone at Carrizales Norte with no booked reserves has flowed >1 mbbl/d – The Ubaque horizon at the Carrizales Norte-1 (CN-1) exploration well was put on three tests, the last of which tested at 1,134 bbl/d of 13.5 API oil on pump. The flow rate was stabilized with a 28.3% water cut (completion fluid). The water cut has been decreasing throughout testing. This is a very go

Auctus on Friday - 05/05/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Target price of A$0.100 per share: 1Q23 in line with expectations. Growing production at Anshof – 1Q23 production was 299 boe/d including 88 bbl/d for Anshof. In March net production from Anshof has increased to 94 bbl/d. Overall net production in March including the Zistersdorf & Gaiselberg fields (Z&G) was 336 boe/d. Additional site storage is planned to be installed at the Anshof-3 well location in June which

Q1: Another quarter boosted by trading, but the buyback outlook is disappointing

Strong oil and gas trading lifted the results for another quarter, enabling bp to book $5n in the Q1 and beat the consensus by 16%. The adjusted EBIT at $9.2bn was broadly in line with the Q4 FY22 and higher than ENI and TotalEnergies. Surplus cash flow significantly dropped (54%) qoq due to lower operating cash flow, down 44% qoq, on the back of declining commodity prices. Accordingly, bp announced a lower share buyback program at $1.75bn, which disappointed the markets.

Auctus on Friday - 31/03/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN) C; Target price of £0.45 per share: Adding reserves in Colombia – Arrow’s 1P, 2P and 3P reserves were estimated at respectively 3.4 mmboe, 7.7 mmboe and 11.7 mmboe at YE22. This includes 2.1 mmboe 2P reserves and 4.3 mmboe 3P reserves at the company’s core assets in Colombia (Tapir and Oso Pardo). Even after deducting 6 months of production (~0.18 mmbbl), the 2P and 3P reserves at the core assets have increas

BP PLC: Major Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (02/23)

BP had a mixed quarter and its revenues were significantly above Wall Street expectations. The management’s emphasis on cost performance as well as operational reliability underpinned robust financial delivery. Despite the fact that its costs are being controlled, the company missed out on meeting the earnings estimates of analysts. BP saw a sharp decline in both spots as well as futures prices. Global margins decreased modestly, consistent with trends in seasonal demand. The company is planning

CEQ CN, GPRK US, HHR AU, TETY SS, AKERBP NO, APA US, ALV CN, BP LN, CNE CN, DEC LN, DELT LN, DNO NO, EQNR NO, FEC CN, IOG LN, MAHA-A SS, SQZ LN, TTE FP, VAR NO

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) C; Resources report in Indonesia – The Lengo gas field is estimated to hold 359 bcf (134 bcf net to Criterium). The contingent resources for the Lengo field are contingent on signing a Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) and securing financing and a final investment decision (FID). A Heads of Agreement was signed in August 2022 with a credible gas offtaker and the partners are now progressing to a formal GSA. It is ant

Q4: bp appreciates high returns from O&G in commitment to stable returns

A more-than-doubling in FY2022 profits and an impressive increase in cash flow from operations have led bp to increase its quarterly dividend by 10% and continue its buyback spree with $2.75 in Q1 FY2023. The updated outlook highlights increased EBITDA from the energy transition business of around $10-$12bn by 2030, with double-digit returns across the EV charging, hydrogen, and bioenergy businesses while “resilient hydrocarbons” will still contribute 75%-76% of the EBITDA at an assumed oil pric

Auctus on Friday - 04/11/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.070 per share: Anshof Reserves estimate well above expectations – RISC estimates that the Anshof field holds 5.2 mmboe of 2P gross reserves (4.2 mmboe net to ADX). This is well ahead of our expectations of ~1.8 mmboe. 85% of the previously estimated mid-case recoverable resources are now classified as 2P reserves. The 2P reserves estimate is based on an assumption of a water oil contact at 1,

60% of FCF for buybacks, increasing dividends while riding a bull

An underlying profit some 34% above consensus is what we call a serious beat! Despite many headwinds for BP – like the Toledo refinery fire, lower margins and lower price realizations – it managed to post its second-highest set of quarterly figures thanks to the gas trading business. Taking the same path as its rivals, BP just upped the ante by announcing a 10% increase in quarterly dividends and the launch of another $2.5bn share buyback program.

BP ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (10/22)

This is our first report on oil major, BP. With its results just around the corner, the company’s stock has already begun an upward trajectory. Its last results were excellent with Brent averaging $114 per barrel, up from $102 per barrel in the initial part of the year. This had helped the company deliver an all-around beat. Its inventory levels were significantly below the five-year norm caused by decreased spare global capacity. Average European prices fell during the second quarter as increas

i3 Energy (I3E LN) - Canada site visit review

Last week we attended a site visit to i3’s assets in central Alberta in Canada – the company’s largest producing area. We were left with a favourable impression of the magnitude of the company’s operations in the region, of the professional operational running of these, and of the overall level of opportunity in this well-established oil and gas province.

Reabold Resources - Payment received from Shell

Good news for Reabold, which is set to receive £5.2m of the second tranche payment from Shell imminently for the Victory gas field it acquired last year. The final £4.4m payment is due once the development approval for the field is received from the NSTA in the coming months. These funds will allow RBD to progress its two onshore gas developments in the UK and Italy and consider further distributions to shareholders. Partner funding of these projects remains an issue, but RBD’s risk/reward profi

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

88 Energy, Falcon Oil & Gas, Trinity Exploration & Production, Plexus Holdings, Baron Oil, Harbour Energy, EnQuest, Capricorn Energy, Arrow Exploration, Southern Energy, Serinus Energy, SDX Energy, Panoro Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, OKEA ASA, Equinor Source: FactSet, weekly change 27/11/23-1/12/23 Oil extended declines, closing out a sixth straight weekly drop, as the OPEC+ output cuts announced Thursday failed to dispel the market’s gloom over swelling global supplies. West Texas Intermed

Tower Resources (TRP LN) - Initiation Report (SPECULATIVE BUY, 0.12p/sh TP)

Cameroon: Ready for the Rig

Pan African Resources - Valuation up 22.2% with new gold price forecasts

On 22 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that operations to date in FY24 had performed in line with, or better than, expected, with gold production for H124 anticipated to be in the range 94,000–98,000oz (cf 92,307oz in H123). As a result, it increased its production guidance for FY24 to 180,000–190,000oz, which caused us to increase our production estimate in turn by 1.9% (or 3,575oz) to 189,725oz. The change made only a modest difference to our EPS forecasts for FY24 (see Exhibit

Morning Note – 4 December 2023

New Debt Facility – Lowering TRR Cost of Capital

We have been roadshowing Trident Royalties all week during which time the company released an announcement that they have entered into a commitment letter with BMO and CIBC for a new $40m revolving credit facility (RCF), with the potential to increase the facility to $60m via an accordion feature. The proceeds from the $40m are going to be used to repay the existing secured debt facility of $40m with Macquire in Q1 next year.

Baron Oil - Chuditch PSC – Six-Month Extension

Baron has been granted a further six-month extension to the Chuditch PSC. The end of Contract Year Two will now be 18 June 2024, at which time Baron will need to make a decision on entering Year Three. In the Third and final phase of the PSC, a final investment decision (FID) will be required on an appraisal well targeting the Chuditch discovery (Chuditch-2). Baron continues to make good progress in its discussions with potential funding partners, having previously announced that it is in “advan

Hartshead Resources - Fully Funded Solution

Hartshead has secured a funding solution with partner Rockrose Energy to fund 100% of the Phase I development costs. Under the agreement, Hartshead has the option to exchange an additional 20% licence interest for an uncapped free carry, thereby covering the total cost of the Phase I development project (financing backstop). Importantly, Hartshead maintains at its election the option not to proceed with the RockRose financing solution, and introduce other financing solutions (eg project debt, pr

SP Angel Morning View: Ford takes 8.5% stake in Indonesian nickel project as Automakers swim upstream

Southern Energy - 3Q Results and Comprehensive Update Note

Southern Energy delivered solid 3Q results with the focus of attention now turned towards the completion of 4 drilled uncompleted wells (“DUCs”). We see our investment thesis for Southern Energy – premised on the scale, location, quality, deliverability, low-cost nature of the company's Gwinville gas field in Mississippi, USA – very much strengthening based on our structural commodity price outlook and our growing confidence in the highly prolific Gwinville gas field, sharpening our interest in

SP Angel Morning View: Gold powers through $2,100/oz on outlook for Fed rate cuts

SP Angel Morning View: China lithium stocks rally on prospects for market rebound

UK-Listed Energy Sector: Review of the UK oil and gas landscape – why the country needs it, current policy and tax

The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.

Andrada Mining: Lab-scale Spodumene concentrate results further advance Andrada’s lithium strategy

Andrada Mining (“Andrada”; “ATM”) has produced its first laboratory scale high-grade spodumene concentrate from mineralised pegmatite at Lithium Ridge (ML133). The material was sourced from the drill core of three holes through two separate pegmatite ore bodies drilled earlier this year. The weighted average feed grade was 1.69% Li2O (15.2% Spodumene), with a 76% Li2O recovery, producing a 6.8% Li2O high-grade spodumene concentrate suitable for lithium carbonate production. A second drill progra