Molten Ventures - NAV down c 6% in the first half of FY24

Molten Ventures released its H124 trading update (to end-September 2023), with management expecting its NAV per share at c 735p, a c 5.7% decline from the end-March 2023 level as a result of a 3.6% negative fair value movement (excluding fx) across its portfolio. That said, management highlighted that the valuation environment is stabilising and that Molten’s portfolio performance remains resilient, with a good balance between growth (even if at a slower pace) and capital efficiency (with very l

Molten Ventures - Cash is king

Molten Ventures has recently faced pressure on tech valuations and muted deal activity from macroeconomic headwinds. That said, management reflected the lower public multiples in Molten’s H123 valuations, with greater stabilisation occurring in H223 (gross portfolio value was down 19% excluding FX in FY23 but only 2% in H223). Molten now offers exposure to a curated portfolio of 70+ assets at a significant discount to NAV. Management remains confident the portfolio is well funded, with 80% of th

Molten Ventures - Initial signs of stabilisation in H223

Molten Ventures released its FY23 trading update (to end-March 2023), with its NAV per share down c 17% in FY23 to c 775p. That said, it posted only a minor 2% decline in its gross portfolio fair value in H223 (excluding foreign exchange impact), which indicates some stabilisation after the 17% decline in H123. Molten’s ‘Core’ portfolio (c 62% of total portfolio) saw a robust 40% value-weighted revenue growth in the calendar year to end-December 2022 (though below the expected 60-65%, partly due

Molten Ventures - Key takeaways from the 2023 capital markets day

At its capital markets day (CMD) Molten Ventures highlighted its successful growth since it listed in 2016, having grown its gross portfolio value by a CAGR of 59% (supported by several capital raises). We note that Molten posted a six-year NAV total return (TR) to end-September 2022 of c 15% pa. Since IPO, Molten has deployed an average £133m in capital per year (excluding secondary investments) and received £452m in total realisation proceeds. Portfolio growth has been underpinned by the 24% p

Molten Ventures - High emphasis on capital preservation

Molten Ventures reported a c 11% decline in NAV per share to 837p in H123 versus FY22, broadly in line with its trading update in early November. Its gross portfolio value was down 17% in constant currency, partially offset by a 5% positive foreign exchange impact from a stronger US dollar. While the enterprise values (EVs) of its portfolio holdings were marked down on average by c 35% (primarily in response to the softening valuations across public equities year-to-date), we note that the portf

Molten Ventures - NAV reset reflects falls in public markets

In its trading update, Molten Ventures announced that its H123 NAV per share is expected to fall to not less than 830p (H122: 887p), 12% below the FY22 NAV/share of 937p. This corresponds to a 17% fall in gross portfolio value (GPV) on a constant currency basis, a net fall of 12% after reflecting exchange rate gains. In turn, GPV is expected to be not less than £1.45bn (FY22: £1.53bn). The falls in valuation were cushioned by the vast majority (c 90%) of Molten’s holdings being structured as pre

Molten Ventures - Readying the ship for choppy waters

Molten had a very strong FY22 (net growth in fair value of 37%), delivering a solid series of cash exits (realisations/gross portfolio value of 13%). Despite this, Molten’s shares trade at 0.44x FY22 NAV per share of 937p, which seems an unjustifiably deep discount given its 26% y-o-y NAV/share growth and five-year NAV/share CAGR of 22%. Moreover, Molten has a broad-based portfolio, weighted towards the more robust B2B business model. Molten’s quoted holdings represented 4% of FY22 fair value an

Molten Ventures - A compelling story at an attractive discount

Molten Ventures continues to deliver strong returns, fully meeting its guidance for FY22, though the current environment is clearly more challenging than the buoyant conditions seen in 2021. The group is in the process of raising its growth fund and is also looking to extend its debt facilities to ensure that it can take advantage of new investment opportunities in FY23. Underlying portfolio performance remains strong (averaging above 65% y-o-y revenue growth for the core portfolio). NAV/share i

Molten Ventures - A core tech holding through the cycle

Molten Ventures is the leading listed venture capital (VC) in Europe, providing liquid exposure to Europe’s high-growth tech start-up ecosystem, through a diversified investment holding company with a proven track record. Following the sell-off of technology and growth stocks, Molten now trades at a 18% discount to the H122 NAV. This is despite Molten delivering a 20% H117–H122 NAV/share CAGR and management’s expectations for c 35% fair value growth for FY22 (implying FY22 NAV/share of c 929p).

Molten Ventures - A technology investment for all seasons

Driven by the marked rotation out of tech seen in January and in line with the sector, Molten’s share price has dropped over 30% since its peak of 1,180p in September 2021 and over 20% since the start of the year. However, in its trading update, management reiterated its target of 35% expected fair value growth in FY22, which we estimate implies c 25% NAV per share growth year-on-year, or FY22 NAV per share of c 929p per share (FY21 743p, H122 887p). At yesterday’s close, Molten traded at 0.84x

Molten Ventures - Let the good times keep rolling

In H122, Molten Ventures saw a continuation of the strong performance reported in FY21, with 27% fair value growth in the period taking gross portfolio value to £1,350m. Management reconfirmed its expectation for c 35% fair value growth for FY22 ‘subject to wider market conditions’, well ahead of management’s initial guidance of below-trend 15% growth. H122 NAV per share increased by 19% to 887p per share, with the five-year CAGR now over 20%. With an uncertain outlook, Molten Ventures offers a

Draper Esprit - Strong H122, FY22 guidance revised upwards

Draper Esprit’s management confirmed that H122 NAV per share is expected to be not less than 885p (31 March 2021: 743p), growth of 19% in the period. With portfolio activity remaining strong, management revised its FY22 fair value growth guidance from 15% at the start of the year to c 35% ‘subject to wider market conditions’. Although growth in NAV per share lags fair value growth (H122 estimates: 26% fair value growth, 19% NAV per share growth), 35% fair value growth might suggest an NAV per sh

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 17-09-2021

Joiners No joiners today. Leavers No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Responsible Housing REIT to join the Main Market (Premium) raising up to £250m. The Company's investment objective is to generate a consistent and sustainable income-based return from the provision of Supported Housing accommodation assets and aligned sectors. The Company is dedicated to the expansion of Supported Housing accommodation and aligned sectors in the UK and will acquire and create quality, fit

LIBERUM: Plus500: Strategic progress pays dividends

Tatton Asset Management (TAM LN) - Record net inflows

Tatton, the leading on-platform discretionary fund manager (DFM) and IFA support services Group has released a trading update ahead of its results to 31 March 2024, due on 18 June 2024.

Hardman & Co Insight: 2023 was an annus horribilis for Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy

The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no

Ondo InsurTech FY24 Trading Update

Ondo InsurTech has released a brief post-YE update revealing its good progress continued through 2H24 and consequently FY24 will be in line with market expectations.

BlackRock World Mining

BRWM’s managers: we see all the classic signs of high commodity prices...

NextEnergy Solar Fund - Attractive Refinancing

The refinancing of a £135m revolving credit facility and the extension of a similar £70m facility gives NESF firepower as development opportunities for new solar are especially attractive thanks to lower module prices in Europe. They give the fund key financial flexibility at a critical time as it pursues its capital recycling programme.

Morning Note – 18 April 2024

The Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2024

Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol

Foxtons Group (FOXT LN) - 1Q24 IMS shows real momentum

Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

M Winkworth+ (WINK, House Stock at 163p) - Solid FY23A results, well placed to grow

Foxtons Group - FY24 underpinned by market share gains

Foxtons Group’s Q1 revenue grew by 9%, supported by growth in all three divisions as the strategic initiatives continue to gain significant momentum, driven by investment in staff, best-in-class bespoke IT and data platforms. This implies that Foxtons’ medium-term targets are now coming into focus. Market share is being gained in all divisions, which puts Foxtons in a good position as the sales market stabilises. We maintain our valuation of 132p/share and believe that if interest rates stabilis

Resilient FY24, confident long-term outlook

Vp’s full year update highlights sector-leading results, once again benefiting from the diversity of its end markets and the quality of its specialist businesses. With results expected to be broadly in line with expectations, we trim our FY24 PBT forecast by c.5% to £39.0m, a shade below the FY23 outturn (£40.2m). We consider this an impressively resilient performance set against a mixed market backdrop. Under new leadership, a strategic refresh is underway and management is confident in long

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 16/04/2024

16th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radical Limited for

AUM up 30% in FY24, record flows, forecasts raised

AUM jumped £3.8bn or +30% in FY24, reaching £16.6bn on 31 Mar 24, 12% above our previous forecast of £14.7bn. Including 50%-owned 8AM Global, Assets Under Influence hit £17.6bn. Investment performance provided a tailwind, adding £1.5bn to AUM. But our key takeaway from Tatton’s hugely impressive last few years, is that it has designed and implemented a superior offering in platform-MPS with net flows consistently far higher than peers. That leadership looks even more pronounced in H2-24 with net