The Budget offered a clear picture of the state of the economy. Put simply, the economy will be 3% smaller in three years’ time than it would have been without the impact of the pandemic. However, it is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, six months earlier than previously thought. The OBR forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 4.1% in 2021, (lower than the 5.5% outlined in November 2020). It has set its GDP forecasts in 2022, 2023 and 2024 at 7.3%, 1.7% and 1.6%. Positive
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BVC BEG BRSD BWNG CBOX CTG CLG CML CWK EYE ECHO EML ESC FBD FA/ GSF HTWS INSE JDG MACF MTW NESF NAVF NSF NBI OTMP PCF PPC QFI SAVE SEN SNX TGL UTL VLS WYN
Non-Standard Finance, one of the leading providers of unsecured credit to UK adults, has issued a trading update which covers performance up to the end of December 2020. This shows that lending volumes were negatively impacted by the tiered lockdowns during November and December, while collections remained robust. In addition, the group has announced plans for a substantial capital raise with the support of Alchemy, its largest shareholder, with a view to completing this during the second quarte
Companies: Non-Standard Finance Plc
NSF’s 1H’20 results reflected the pain from COVID-19, with i) less volume, ii) changes to business models, and iii) higher impairment, including an increased weighting of a severe macro downside, increasing IFRS9 cyclical impairment charges. Despite these pressures, both the branch (ELD) and home collect (HCC) businesses were profitable. A young customer demographic meant the guarantor loan division (GLD) was most impacted, with COVID-19 effects compounded by the recent FCA review in 2H’20. NSF
SAS Multi-asset Chartbook, 4imprint, Sylvania Pla
Companies: FOUR SLP NSF
1H20 results demonstrate that NSF had been coping relatively well with COVID-19 but has been marred by the FCA’s multi-firm review of the guarantor loans sector. Adjusted pre-tax loss of £9.9m was broadly in line with expectations but the reported loss included a goodwill write-down of £75.5m and redress provisions of £15.8m. Everyday day loans and Loans at Home are performing well in the unprecedented environment. The group continues to operate within its financial covenants and is still lookin
20 years ago, a young intern at a leading investment bank was asked for his views on the future of the media industry. His published thoughts included the suggestion that his generation never watched TV. This came as a complete shock to the older generation of analysts and fund managers. Could this apply to the car industry? The following article results from an interview between the Hardman & Co analyst, Derek Terrington, and his son, William (age 23). Derek is famous for his research note expo
Companies: ARBB ARIX CLIG ICGT INC NSF PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE SHED VTA YEW
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact globally in many areas. While primarily a health issue, it has had wide-ranging implications for stock markets, which have now rallied after the plunge in share prices in mid-March when the full severity of the emerging pandemic became more widely appreciated. Nonetheless, the FTSE 100 Index remains almost 20% off its late February 2020 figure.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX CLIG DNL GDR ICGT NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
For this Monthly, we are delighted that Rooney Nimmo and 24Haymarket have allowed us to reproduce a recent report they jointly published, entitled An analysis of UK exits (2015-2019), which provides a granular analysis by sector of the activity in our dynamic private companies world. We hope you find the insights of interest.
Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX CLIG ICGT NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RECI SCE TRX SHED VTA
Non-Standard Finance (NSF) recently published full year results to 31st December 2019, which had been somewhat delayed while the auditors completed their work. The announcement noted that the group is currently facing a challenging environment caused by Covid-19 and that it was exploring various funding options which may include an equity raise. The aim of this would be to put the balance sheet on a sounder footing, improve access to debt funding and thus allow the group to take advantage of the
The June trading update confirmed that collections remain robust and that, as anticipated, lending volumes are slowly recovering. As well as underpinning our earnings forecasts, it also reinforces our view that the potential cash generated by the business in FY20 eliminates any risk around NSF’s solvency. While our base case assumes limited loan book growth relative to FY19 levels, a combination of upgrading its book and self-help measures should enable a sharp recovery in profitability by FY22.
Key takeaways from NSF’s results and presentation were: i) solid underlying 2019 with normalised operating profits up 20% and lower impairments to revenue; ii) £60m cash now ‒ April and May cash-generative; and iii) current collections 86% of pre-lockdown levels. NSF is a going concern and is considering an equity raise to help fund additional growth. Downside includes: i) statutory loss with further goodwill impairments; ii) material uncertainty arising from COVID-19 effects and so possibly its
Despite an uncertain short-term outlook due to COVID-19, our analysis suggests that the cash generated in FY20 eliminates any risks around NSF’s solvency. Although our base case assumes limited loan book growth relative to FY19 levels, a combination of upgrading its book and self-help measures should enable a sharp recovery in profitability by FY22. With the shares trading on just 1.9x these earnings, it is clear that the group’s liquidity position is misunderstood, the strength of its brands an
A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REI
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
Much has been written about the effects of the virus on the world and on the stock market. Here is one analyst’s take on some of the likely impacts on the way we should look at companies. This article was originally produced as a blog, “10 Changes Post Virus”, which was published a few weeks ago.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX DNL GDR NSF PCA PIN PHNX PHP RE/ RECI STX SCE SIXH TRX SHED VTA
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Non-Standard Finance Plc.
We currently have 122 research reports from 4
Agronomics is an investment company, making selective investments in early-stage alternative protein companies. We believe the combination of the conservative approach to calculating a reported net asset value (NAV) and growing interest in the broader alternative protein and cultured meat opportunities has resulted in Agronomics' shares trading at a c320% premium to its latest reported NAV per share value. Our analysis suggests that not only can this premium be justified but that upside exists b
Companies: Agronomics Limited
Semper Fortis Esports* recently announced its intention to IPO onto the Access Segment of the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Semper is a multi-operational Esports organisation focusing on gaming technology solutions, brand enhancement and high growth team infrastructures. The company plans to raise £2.5m to develop their three core areas of establishing an esports team, forming partnerships with brands for sponsorship and B2B consultancy services. The Board are highly experienced in spor
Companies: ADME RTC SAV DFCH HUW TEG ANIC KOO MIRI SPSY
Today's news & views, plus announcements from CPG, DGE, FLTR, MSLH, PHP, TUI, UDG, ULE, RQIH, VTU
Companies: Primary Health Properties PLC (PHP:LON)Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings Ltd. (RQIH:LON)
Gore Street continues to develop its portfolio with the acquisition of a 80MW project in the GB market and a 300MW expansion of its exclusive development pipeline. Extended revenue opportunity in Ireland and well optimised assets in the UK give us confidence that the company can maximise value from this larger portfolio.
Companies: Gore Street Energy Storage Fund PLC
In addition to successfully executing a high volume of transactions for clients in the first half, Numis continues to plan investment to strengthen and broaden its capabilities to support longer-term growth through market cycles. With over 60% of transaction fee income in H120 coming from outside the retained client base there is evidence that the company is succeeding in building a wider reputation.
Companies: Numis Corporation Plc
NextEnergy Solar’s NAV reflects a reduction in long term pricing offset by continued operating outperformance. While long term pricing remains an issue across the renewable yieldco sector, we continue to see NESF as better placed thanks to its non-amortising debt. It is also showing that its energy sales relationship with NextEnergy Capital is delivering strong hedging positions which should benefit the company going forward. On top of this the company has a range of opportunities to develop and
Companies: Nextenergy Solar Fund
The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are fa
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BAG BVC BEG BONH BLVN BRSD CML CWK CRPR EYE ECHO FDM FAR FA/ GPH GSF HUW INSE JDG KAPE KP2 MACF MPAC MNZS NESF NBI OTMP OBD PREM QFI RUA SCS SEN SOS SUR TON TOU TXP TGL TCN UEM VLS WYN
Companies: Pantheon International
Marlowe has released a positive FY21E trading update, with Adj EBITDA of £28m+ being comfortably ahead of our forecasts (£26.4m). FY22E has started well, with strong demand being seen across all business units. Boosted by recent acquisitions and continued organic growth, run-rate Adj EBITDA now stands at c£39m. The company has today also announced three bolt-on acquisitions. Given the strength of Marlowe's business model, in an industry underpinned by durable structural growth drivers, we believ
Companies: Marlowe Plc
Full-year results to 31 December 2020 show the value of recurring revenues amid the global pandemic, bolstered by technology investment permitting improved operational efficiency. The flexible annuity pipeline remains significant, though the pandemic has caused slow conversion of leads. A UK-focussed acquisition pipeline continues to form a key part of the investment thesis and a post-period exit from the trusts sector has freed up capital to allow the company to pursue this strategy with the re
Companies: STM Group PLC
Canyon Resources (CAY AU) – Minim Martap bauxite project mineral resource upgrade (Altus Strategies is invested in Canyon Resources)
Marvel Gold (MVL AU) A$0.05, Mkt Cap A$27m – Chilalo Graphite Project spin out (Altus Strategies holds a JV agreement with Marvel Gold)
Metal Tiger (MTR LN) – Drilling Commenced at KML copper project
Serabi Gold* (SRB LN) – Drilling confirms lateral and depth extensions to mineralisation at Palito
Companies: ALS SRB MTR CAY MVL
We initiate coverage of Parsley Box with a 220p share price target, implying 14% potential upside. Parsley Box is a small, dynamic, fast-growing company that delivers quality ambient ready meals direct to its customers, targeting the growing number of older and wealthy people in the UK. We expect Parsley Box to break into EBITDA profit and be cash-generative in 2022 and to grow rapidly thereafter. We would expect the valuation discount will narrow as it continues to deliver.
Companies: Parsley Box Group PLC
Primary Health Properties (PHP) has issued a trading update covering the three months to 31 March 2021 (Q121). The existing portfolio continues to perform well, as expected, and while acquisition activity has been light amid a highly competitive investment market, progress continues with rent reviews and asset management projects, forward-funded developments and the recently acquired direct development pipeline.
Companies: Primary Health Properties PLC
The key messages we take from RECI’s April’s quarterly investor updateand end-March 2021 factsheet are i) mark-to-market (MTM) writedowns in March 2020 proved overly conservative, and RECI has been making recoveries since, ii) with no defaults, RECI’s assets have proved highly resilient (this is no accident, but reflects the different way in which the assets are managed to other lenders, and iii) as expected, RECI’s bond portfolio provided significant liquidity at only a modest cost. Despite the
Companies: Real Estate Credit Investments
Brewin Dolphin’s strategy to broaden its range of propositions and distribution channels to reach wider demographics has resulted in the delivery of a strong performance in 1H21. Adj. PBT of £47.0m was up 29% YoY driven by strong income growth and ongoing cost savings, leading to Adj. PBT margin of 23.5% (1H20:20.8%). The interim DPS is also up by 5% to 4.6p.Total discretionary fund inflows hit a record of £1.0bn in 2Q21 helped by the recent launch of Voyager funds while strong retention rates o
Companies: Brewin Dolphin Holdings PLC