The Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2024

Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol

The Hardman & Co Monthly: March 2024

Feature article: Streamed content takes over…after the Great Correction of 2022 Streaming is a disruptive, content-led, subscription-based technology. Challenging all video distribution business models, it opens up global opportunities for a growing variety of content, including gaming and sport. The Great Correction of 2022 saw the share prices of streamers plunge after market leader Netflix reported slowing subscriber growth. The slowdown in growth of subscribers led investors to refocus on

Real Estate Credit Investments (RECI) - French and German exposures in perspective

We last reviewed RECI’s operations in France, 25% of the latest portfolio, in our note, Vive la difference, published 15 February 2022. The core approach is unchanged, but, following the December 2023 factsheet report of an unrealised hit of 1.6p to the NAV from a prime Grade A Paris office exposure, we thought we would review them again. Also, with the November Factsheet reporting a 1.1p NAV hit from a legacy mezzanine position exposed to a Berlin asset, we have considered the de minimis German

The Hardman & Co Monthly: February 2024

Feature article: 2023 was an annus horribilis for Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy - Consolidation is the new mantra. The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and t

The Hardman & Co Monthly: January 2024

The main function of the HHI is to monitor the performance, and to highlight the attractiveness, of life sciences investments over the long term, and to try to identify those stocks that have disruptive technologies that consistently allow them to outperform both the index and the markets. Many of the 52 constituents of the index are high-risk, still being in the development stage, with micro-capitalisations and a long way from profitability. Despite this, some companies can still make extremely

Hardman & Co Research: Real Estate Credit Investments (RECI) - Portfolio management to optimise risk/reward

In previous notes, we have reviewed why we believe RECI has procedures and practices that limit downside losses to help ensure the resilience of the NAV. In this note, we explore further how portfolio management helps optimise risk/reward with a dynamic approach to bond portfolio allocation, leverage, top 10 concentrations, geographical sectors, and duration. RECI’s portfolio is not a static, long-duration, totally illiquid book. It is actively managed to the latest market opportunities, with an

The Hardman & Co Monthly: November 2023

This month's feature article is entitled 'Gold and a Chinese Credit Event'. A Western phenomenon? If you own, or are considering owning, gold or gold equities, it’s likely that you’re concerned about protecting your wealth, or the performance of your fund, in the expectation of some kind of financial instability. Maybe your confidence in policymakers is ebbing, or you’ve researched debt bubbles in history and concluded that physical gold and silver have been the safest places to be invested whe

The Hardman & Co Monthly: October 2023

Feature article: Liquidity – shrinking when it’s most needed A review of liquidity in London since 2016 Summary ► Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. ► Following the events at the Woodford Equity Income Fund (WEIF) in 2019, professional investors, increasingly, focus on liquidity when making investment decisions. ► However, this paper shows that liquidity declined significantly between 2016 and 2022. Our work demonstrates that, in 2016, the total value traded of trading companies lis

The Hardman & Co Monthly: September 2023

Feature article: Equity Income – UK or Global? Should investors widen their horizons? Introduction: ► The UK Equity Income sector (UKEI) is the fourth-largest investment company (IC) sector in the Association of Investment Companies’ (AIC) universe, with £12.5bn of assets (as at August 2023), and is the traditional home for investors looking for income in the equity market. ► The UKEI not only provides investors with a better dividend yield than the ge

Real Estate Credit Investments (RECI): Why CRE equity worries should not apply to RECI

RECI’s current discount to NAV (15%) suggests to us that some investors could be concerned that potential issues with commercial real estate (CRE) will dramatically affect the trust’s assets. In our view, the key reasons why they should not lie in RECI’s management of its position as a debt provider and in its asset selection. We note i) CRE equity holders take first losses (with a 60% LTV, RECI has a big cushion), ii) when accounts have got into difficulties, RECI has typically seen more funds

The Hardman & Co Monthly: August 2023

Feature article: UK interest rates and “risk-free” gilts at their peak? Infrastructure stocks struggle Executive summary Infrastructure/Renewable Energy Funds ► The share price performances of the nine Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and of the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs) have been dire over the past year. Undoubtedly, the sharp rise in interest rates has presented the sector with serious challenges, especially since the yield on “risk-free” 10-year gilts has r

The Hardman & Co Monthly: July 2022

This month, we feature a contribution by Stephen Isaacs, who is known in the hedge fund world for his, often, thought-provoking commentaries about markets, economics and politics. It goes without saying that the thoughts expressed in this article are those of Stephen, and do not necessarily reflect Hardman & Co’s views. Feature article: UK/OK – muddling through The past few years have seen previously unheard-of constitutional risks – from threats to the Union to the departure from the EU. Brit

Real Estate Credit Investments (RECI): Double tangible security

Our recent notes, in the main, have focused on why RECI should prove resilient in uncertain times, given its credit processes, high-quality security, low exposure to high-risk sectors, diversity and management of problem accounts. Market turbulence has reduced competition, and there is distinct upside, particularly in moderate-risk development loan positions. In this note, our property analyst considers the underlying real estate security, and concludes that i) potentially more difficult asset-c

LIBERUM: Real Estate Credit Investments: Sales view: A generational opportunity

The Hardman & Co Monthly: June 2023

Feature article: UK Water – making waves Over the past year, UK utility share prices have been volatile, especially within the electricity sub-sector. The combination of the war in Ukraine and the associated impact of fluctuating gas prices, along with sharply higher inflation and the consequential rise in interest rates, have destabilised much of the sector. Indeed, most sector constituents have seen their share pieces fall (although not seriously), while Centrica, the UK’s leading gas company

LIBERUM: Plus500: Strategic progress pays dividends

Tatton Asset Management (TAM LN) - Record net inflows

Tatton, the leading on-platform discretionary fund manager (DFM) and IFA support services Group has released a trading update ahead of its results to 31 March 2024, due on 18 June 2024.

Hardman & Co Insight: 2023 was an annus horribilis for Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy

The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no

Ondo InsurTech FY24 Trading Update

Ondo InsurTech has released a brief post-YE update revealing its good progress continued through 2H24 and consequently FY24 will be in line with market expectations.

BlackRock World Mining

BRWM’s managers: we see all the classic signs of high commodity prices...

Foxtons Group (FOXT LN) - 1Q24 IMS shows real momentum

Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.

NextEnergy Solar Fund - Attractive Refinancing

The refinancing of a £135m revolving credit facility and the extension of a similar £70m facility gives NESF firepower as development opportunities for new solar are especially attractive thanks to lower module prices in Europe. They give the fund key financial flexibility at a critical time as it pursues its capital recycling programme.

Morning Note – 18 April 2024

Foxtons Group - FY24 underpinned by market share gains

Foxtons Group’s Q1 revenue grew by 9%, supported by growth in all three divisions as the strategic initiatives continue to gain significant momentum, driven by investment in staff, best-in-class bespoke IT and data platforms. This implies that Foxtons’ medium-term targets are now coming into focus. Market share is being gained in all divisions, which puts Foxtons in a good position as the sales market stabilises. We maintain our valuation of 132p/share and believe that if interest rates stabilis

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

M Winkworth+ (WINK, House Stock at 163p) - Solid FY23A results, well placed to grow

Hybridan Research: Sector Review: Artificial intelligence in UK cybersecurity: the human uplift 17/04/2024

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti

Resilient FY24, confident long-term outlook

Vp’s full year update highlights sector-leading results, once again benefiting from the diversity of its end markets and the quality of its specialist businesses. With results expected to be broadly in line with expectations, we trim our FY24 PBT forecast by c.5% to £39.0m, a shade below the FY23 outturn (£40.2m). We consider this an impressively resilient performance set against a mixed market backdrop. Under new leadership, a strategic refresh is underway and management is confident in long

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 16/04/2024

16th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radical Limited for

AUM up 30% in FY24, record flows, forecasts raised

AUM jumped £3.8bn or +30% in FY24, reaching £16.6bn on 31 Mar 24, 12% above our previous forecast of £14.7bn. Including 50%-owned 8AM Global, Assets Under Influence hit £17.6bn. Investment performance provided a tailwind, adding £1.5bn to AUM. But our key takeaway from Tatton’s hugely impressive last few years, is that it has designed and implemented a superior offering in platform-MPS with net flows consistently far higher than peers. That leadership looks even more pronounced in H2-24 with net