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  • 08 Jan 2026

Off the call: move feels overdone, opportunity to add to SBRY ahead of results tomorrow


Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON) | 463 -8.8 (-0.4%) | Mkt Cap: 29,401m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Joyce Rob RJ

    • 10 pages


 

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Off the call: move feels overdone, opportunity to add to SBRY ahead of results tomorrow


Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON) | 463 -8.8 (-0.4%) | Mkt Cap: 29,401m


  • Published: 08 Jan 2026
  • Author: Joyce Rob RJ
  • Pages: 10
  • BNP Paribas Exane


BNPP View: Overall Tesco''s Xmas trading call was a solid one, with management emphasising consistent volume growth and volume share gains across the period (ahead of value share gains), despite market volumes softening. This, alongside guidance for profits at top end of the range in FY26e (in line with cons) and that FY26e was an exceptional year in terms of no profit growth, leads us to expect minimal changes to FY27e cons for c.5% EBIT growth. As such, while the LFL growth is below expectations, we see this as largely Tesco driven and see the -5% move down as slightly overdone. In terms of read across, with SBRY (+) down 4%, we see an opportunity to add into results as we still see SBRY delivering grocery growth ahead of the +4.9% consensus expectations for their 3Q26, to be reported tomorrow. Key points: On FY27e: Tesco would not be drawn on expectations for next year, specifically on inflation and volumes. However, they did acknowledge that in terms of profit growth, FY26e, at flat, was an exceptional year. We took this to mean Tesco envisage profits growing again in FY27e, and think the market at +5% still looks reasonable. On UK grocery market: saw a slowdown in both inflation and volumes over Xmas. Market competitive intensity has been elevated since Feb, but not changed since then. Tesco would not comment on the inflation outlook. On Tesco''s performance: Tesco state that they have grown volumes every month across the 19 week period, with volume market share increasing ahead of value market share. This is because they have proactively invested in price ahead of the market. On the consumer: sentiment is mixed, but resilient overall. Continue to see value conscious consumers in lower income groups, with higher income groups in pretty good shape. On private label: continue to see strength in top tier private label, driven by innovation and the ongoing trend (expected to continue into 2026) of customers trading down from restaurants.

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