Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on MCCOLL'S RETAIL GROUP PLC. We currently have 4 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
|22Mar17 13:10||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|15Mar17 17:12||RNS||Long Term Incentive Plan Awards|
|06Mar17 12:25||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|27Feb17 07:00||RNS||Final Results|
|21Dec16 12:02||RNS||Price Monitoring Extension|
|20Dec16 07:07||RNS||CMA approval|
|16Dec16 09:00||RNS||Director Declaration|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
MCCOLL'S RETAIL GROUP PLC
MCCOLL'S RETAIL GROUP PLC
21 Dec 16
"With markets winding down for the Christmas and New Year break, International equities remain very much the favoured investment. The continuing rout across global bond markets appeared to gather pace yesterday from the fallout of the supposed terrorist attacks in Germany and Turkey, as investor concern for a potentially wider series of IS-directed extremist assaults across Europe’s capitals to unnerve its populations, the backlash of which could result in further sharp swings toward more populist governments during the various presidential and general elections expected in the New Year. Right now the threat may not seem very real, but with the possibility of an early vote to replace Italy’s recently-installed caretaker government and France’s presidential election scheduled for May, well-prepared opposition parties in the shape of Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement and Marine le Pen’s National Front etc. are positioned to challenge the very existence of the Eurozone. During these quite exceptional times, with authorities still apparently totally out of touch with their electorate, such a threat simply cannot be discounted, the ultimate cost of which could even be for independent nations to choose reversion to their legacy currencies with the potential to create widespread default. Such lingering fears will likely hinder Europe’s opening this morning, despite the Dow Jones chalking up yet another all-time high overnight, closing just shy of the psychologically important 20,000 mark, with all the principal US markets also making reasonable gains as optimism that Trump-inspired reflation and proposed investment will provide a significant medium-term boost to earnings. Asia was also in a good mood, with broad gains seen in just about all regional markets most notably with even China playing catch-up following a couple of days of weaker trading as economists speculated on the potential for a PBOC-directed tightening of liquidity during Q1’2017. Other than release of Public Sector Net Borrowing figures this morning, the UK is not due to release any significant macro data, while the US is scheduled only to provide MBA Mortgage Applications and Existing Home sales data ahead of a larger swath of figures tomorrow and Friday. Very little is also happening on the corporate front this morning, with earning or trading updates due from just a few second-liners including CH Bailey (BLEY.L), Premaithia Health (NIPT.L) and Water Intelligence (WATR.L). Investors will, however, be keen for any further media comment following the Prime Minister, Theresa May’s reported backing for the UK to be permitted to enter a ‘transitional period’ in order to adjust to the new economic order prospectively resulting from Brexit. Accepting the need for a soft, rather than hard, landing could provide significant relief for those fearful that a clear post-Article 50 plan is still not in place. The FTSE100 is seen around 10 points weaker during this morning’s opening trade. " - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
02 Dec 16
"By late Sunday, we should have a good idea whether or not Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, will be stepping down. The polls suggest his constitutional referendum, which has effectively become a confidence vote on his premiership, will get a 'thumbs down'. No new election is actually required until February 2018, but any attempt to simply replace him with another technocrat leader could well see a public, suffering from implosion of their bad-debt laden banking system, 38% youth unemployment and an inability to stifle giant capital outflows, clamouring for a snap election. This, of course, would open the door for Bepe Grillo's Five Star Movement, whose denouncement of the Euro could, in turn, generate in a wave of similar populist referendum voting across other dissatisfied EU nations, with France's own presidential election, due to take place on 7th May, the headline this morning following Francois Hollande's overnight declaration that he has decided not to stand. The prospect of Eurozone's collapse, however, was not the driver of the US session, which started in the positive following release of strong November Manufacturing ISM data, but waned later as a sell-off amongst tech issues pushed the NASDAQ sharply down, while the Dow Jones managed to hold onto modest gains due to sustained switching into financials, as divergence between the two sectors and the rout in government bond markets since Trump's election continued. Asian shares were lower across the board, with the Nikkei suffering as the Yen found buyers amongst US$ sceptics waiting for flaws in the Trump rally to show through, which dragged the other regional markets with it. With investors now virtually taking a 25bp hike by the Fed later this month for granted, focus this afternoon is likely to centre on the important US employment report, with forecasts in the 180k to 200k range, taking unemployment to 4.8% with a modest rise in hourly earnings of around 0.1%. The UK will also report Construction PMI figures this morning while corporates due to disclose earnings or trading updates include 88 Energy (88E.L), Altona Energy (ANR.L) and Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG.L). Traders meanwhile continue to watch oil futures carefully; although prices moderated during the Asian session, sentiment following OPEC's agreement remains positive with January's light, sweet crude trading a whisker below US$51 on the Mercantile Exchange, as they weigh up expectations on the terms being upheld or the various participants instead deciding to cheat on quotas rather than give up market share to US shale producers. London equities opened in a nervous mood this morning, with the FTSE-100 down over 57 points in early trading." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
02 Sep 16
The UK economy provided yesterday's biggest surprises for investors. Manufacturing PMI data recorded its biggest monthly increase in a quarter of a century for August, as production and new orders recovered sharply to a level of 53.3 from the initial post-Brexit shock three-year low of 48.2 recorded in July. Sterling jumped as much as 1.35% to over US$1.33, as the IMF concluded that post-Referendum growth had 'surprised on the upside', while measures taken by the Bank of England to boost expansion would 'support the economy' and cushion part of the negative impact. As a result, London's two principal equity indices moved in opposite directions; the FTSE-100, whose constituents derive over 70% of their earnings internationally, reversed early gains to be knocked by Pound strength, while the more domestically weighted FTSE-250 bounced a similar amount into the positive. Reflecting further on this, and ahead of today's key US jobs data, the FTSE-100 is expected to recover part of yesterday's losses, rising around 16 points during early trading. US equities ended unchanged to fractionally positive yesterday evening, with recent oil prices weakness making energy stocks the session's main casualty; anything significantly stronger than the consensus figure of 185,000 new jobs added during August, taking the unemployment rate to 4.8%, will likely build confidence and raise expectations that the Fed could finally deliver a rate hike later this month. Asian equities had an uneventful session, with the ASX the only notable mover as its energy shares remained under similar pressure. Elsewhere in the region, equities generally trod water waiting for this afternoon's release from the US as traders pondered the extent to which an early hike would suck foreign capital out of its emerging markets, although clearly such a move by year-end will already have been largely priced in. The UK will release UK Market Construction Index data this morning, while this afternoon, the Fed's Jeffrey Lacker may be the first to reflect on the US Jobs data in his scheduled speech. Corporates due to release earnings figures this morning include EMIS Group (EMIS.L), Fyffes (FFY) and Go-Ahead Group (GOG.L).
Disciplined control of costs
30 Jul 15
In a challenging food retail environment, McColl’s has delivered solid H1 results and reiterated guidance for the year. What strikes us as most impressive in these results is, yet again, the company’s strong focus on cost control. Administrative costs are well under control despite a significant store conversion programme, coupled with the acquisition of new stores and added services. We believe the long-standing management has a good growth strategy in place, and with more of the estate being converted to better-performing formats, like-for-like sales should pick up over time. Hence updated consensus forecasts post the interim results look too low in our view. Valued at a steep discount to the sector and as a main player in the growing UK convenience market, we consider the high dividend yield of 6.2% an added bonus.
Retail sales still in trouble
17 Mar 17
Excluding fuel, Sainsbury’s Q4 retail sales were down on a lfl basis vs. a 0.1% uptick over the Q3. Following this disappointing quarter, FY 2016/17 retail revenues declined by 0.6% on a lfl basis. Including fuel, this came in at 0.2%. Argos’s sales delivered strong 4.3% lfl growth. Together, Sainsbury’s and Argos’s lfl sales were by up 0.3%. Sainsbury continues to lag behind Morrisons, the latter’s sales impressed with 2.5% lfl growth over the last quarter and 1.7% over the whole year. Regarding the outlook, management remains cautious about the highly competitive market and the cost price pressure impact.
Argos and broader non-food offer to defend market share
28 Sep 16
Q2 total sales fell by 0.4% and by 1.1% on a lfl basis. The retail business (excluding Argos) generated almost flat sales compared to Q2 15 but was still experiencing a negative trend on a lfl basis. The good news came from Argos’s recovering business, where revenues impressed with 2.8% growth in H1 following a promising Q2. Sainsbury strengthened its network by opening nine new convenience stores and one supermarket. Sales of groceries online showed an 8% increase (in line with last quarter’s) despite the decrease in both customer orders and basket size. The stock lost 3.27% this morning.
More convincing on its home turf
19 Oct 16
Q3 16 sales including VAT came in at €21,781m, leading the total sales from the beginning of the year to €62.33bn. Q3 revenues progressed by 3.2% on a lfl basis driven by accelerated growth on its home turf (1.2%) and resilient business in Brazil (12.4%). In France, the supermarkets and convenience stores are the main growth drivers. In China, struggling operations witnessed a continuous fall in sales of 7.8% on a lfl basis. Carrefour faces also a difficult time in Poland where sales were slightly down.
Lower than expected margin
24 Oct 16
Jeronimo Martins released strong Q3 sales growth leading to a 5.5% rise over the last nine months. Total sales reached €10,738m and EBITDA stood at €626,9m, i.e. an EBITDA margin at 5.8%, flat compared to 2015. The 9M net result came in at €501.6m, including gains from the Monterroio disposal for €224m. Adjusted net profit amounted to €266m, 5.6% yoy, boosted by a lower cost of debt. Biedronka remains the main driver for both the group’s top-line and profitability which offset a slight decrease in the Polish business margin (10bp). The underperformance of Ara and Hebe is more pronounced this year due to Ara’s network expansion (expected to be above 2015’s level). Despite the substantial capex, JM continues to enjoy a solid balance sheet with a lower debt burden (reaching €326m vs. €658m in 2015).
On the right track
05 Oct 16
THe Q2 figures witnessed a third consecutive lfl positive growth leading to a H1 16 sales improvement of 1.0% on a lfl basis. H1 sales stood at £24.4bn (£27,338m including fuel) following a promising Q2 (0.9% in the UK and 2.1% for international markets). Tesco’s sales have benefited from the increase in both volume and transactions in all markets. All formats – including the largest and the Extra formats – saw an improving trend in lfl sales performance throughout the half. H1 operating profit came in at £596m, i.e. a 2.2% operating margin and management expects £1.2bn for the whole year. This positive trend in the margin will continue according to management and reach 3.5-4.0% by 2019/20. Net debt decreased to £4,352m but total indebtedness surged by £3,400m with a ballooning pension deficit due to low UK bond yields, in the aftermath of Brexit.
Sales slowdown in France and currency gains in Brazil
13 Oct 16
Q3 sales progressed by 6.7% yoy to €10,425m, mainly driven by the LatAm retail business accounting for 37.14% of group sales (vs. 35.1% in Q2 16 and 30.0% in Q3 15). Casino derives 45.7% of its sales from its domestic market where growth slowed due to an underperforming non-food business hit by unfavourable weather conditions and the decline in tourist activity in Paris. The transfer of stores to franchisees and the closure of loss-making ones have remarkedly pulled down Leader Price, Franprix and Convenience’s total sales. Casino’s e-commerce business was hammered by Cnova Brazil (negative sales momentum for non-food products) while Cdiscount France is delivering strong results (+5.6% net sales growth).