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22 May 2025
Value over volume
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Value over volume
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 2,298 7639.2 16.8% | Mkt Cap: 25,480m
- Published:
22 May 2025 -
Author:
Wyburd Harry HW | Xu Joy JX -
Pages:
13 -
Parsing through yesterday''s numbers, we think concerns over a cashflow miss look overdone, although we trim our FY26 EPS to a touch below cons. on lower capacity additions. Bigger picture, the shares remain on low multiples, the incoming CEO was soothing on zonal pricing, and we see chances of an eq. raise as negligible in the near term. Maintain Outperform.
Valuevolume, GBP3bn cut to capex and networks pivot
From a strategic point of view, the important take from these results is that SSE is mimicking other large European peers by trimming renewables capex and increasing the weight of networks in the investment mix. The foray into international renewables appears to have been de-emphasised, returns hurdles raised, capacity addition targets cut to 7GW by Mar''27 (prev up to 9GW) and GBP3bn taken off the capex plan. The capex trim caters favourably to many investors'' continued scepticism on renewables, and is supportive in our view esp. given the co has maintained FY27 EPS guidance.
An event-heavy 9 months ahead: Zonal pricing decis., RIIO-T3 reg review and AR7 CfD auction
Asked when we could next expect a CMD, incoming CEO Martin Pibworth highlighted these three strategically-critical events as important milestones to get past before rolling forward current Mar''27 targets. Our best guess is we shouldn''t expect a major strat. update before calendar 2026. We think each of these events has the opportunity to be a certainty catalyst that could help the shares rerate.
Adjusting FY26 EPS, less worried on op. FCF though - small bump in TP from 2320 to 2355
We cut our FY26 EPS from prev c4% ahead of cons to 1% below, mainly on lower renewables additions although this is offset by higher capacity payment ests by FY27. We look at capex/op.CF/net debt dynamics on p4 and conclude that concerns about an operating cashflow miss post yesterday''s call look overdone.