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16 Nov 2022
First Take: SSE - Guidance unchanged, moving parts
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First Take: SSE - Guidance unchanged, moving parts
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 2,215 -797.4 (-1.6%) | Mkt Cap: 24,565m
- Published:
16 Nov 2022 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
5 -
1H in-line, but moving parts
Adjusted operating profit of £716m (vs. INVe £735m) and adjusted EPS of 41.8p (vs. INVe 40.6p, and in line with guidance of “at least 40p”). As can be seen in Figure 1 overleaf, there are many moving parts that have contributed to a broadly in-line outturn.
In particularly, we highlight renewables which was impacted by volumes 0.5TWh (13%) below plan, the need to buy back hedges, and delays to Seagreen (now expected to complete in summer 2023) with a cost impact of £57m. Gas storage, however, performed strongly given the volatile gas market, and SSE has indicated the assets “remain well placed to capture the usual winter spread”. In thermal, higher volumes & prices, as well as balancing market performance offset the need to buyback hedges.
Net debt incl. hybrid of £10bn was in line with our £10bn. DPS of 29.0p was slightly ahead of our 28.5p given SSE’s assumption of 13.7% RPI.
SSE’s guidance for FY23 EPS remains “at least 120p”. Our pre-existing FY23E EPS is 128.6p.
The commitment to the RPI-linked dividend growth through to March 23 is reiterated.
SSEN Transmission stake sale imminent
SSE continues to forecast adjusted EPS CAGR of 7-10% to March 2026, after assumed minority interest. Our pre-existing estimates point to 10.7% EPS CAGR over this period.
There is no change in the FY24 dividend rebase to 60p, followed by 5%+ growth thereafter to March 2026.
SSE is progressing the sale of 25% minority stake in SSEN Transmission, with completion expected in the coming weeks.