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12 Nov 2019
SSE : 1H results a sideshow - Hold
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SSE : 1H results a sideshow - Hold
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 1,971 620.9 1.6% | Mkt Cap: 21,859m
- Published:
12 Nov 2019 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
7 -
Over the past three years, SSE’s 1H adjusted operating profit has been in a 30-40% range of FY adjusted operating profit. 1H20 is set to be different, with SSE guiding to around 20% of FY adjusted operating profit. Our £343m 1H20E is equivalent to 23% of our FY20E.
There are two key drivers to the timing of profit generation in FY20: (i) an expectation that over 90% of the expected £115m +/-£15m EPM loss will be incurred in 1H20; and (ii) reinstatement of the Capacity Market being a 2H event, with payments expected to be received in this period. This impacts both thermal and renewable generation, with the former likely to be loss making in 1H20.
We look for SSE to provide detail on how the record low strike prices on the Dogger Bank and Seagreen offshore wind farms allow SSE to generate value, an update on the gas production disposal process, the RIIO-2 business planning process, and the revised proposals requested by Ofgem for the Shetland and Orkney island links.
For FY20E, our adjusted EPS is 80.1p, positioning us at the bottom of SSE’s guided range, of 85p-90p with up to 5p of dilution if gas production is treated as ‘held for sale’, an accounting treatment we assume.
A presentation will be held, and can be accessed via www.sse.com, or +44 20 7192 8000, with access code 1197523.