Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on KSK POWER VENTUR PLC. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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KSK POWER VENTUR PLC
KSK POWER VENTUR PLC
H1 FY 2017 results
30 Nov 16
KSK has released its H1 results to the end of September 2016. These report a period of continued significant generation at Mahanadi (higher than H1 FY 2016, though lower than H2 2016), although transitory coal sourcing issues have resulted in revenues and profits behind our expectations, and we adjust our numbers for the full year (detailed below – we leave FY 2018 unchanged). More positively, the grid access and PPAs for Mahanadi are performing as expected, and construction is progressing apace on the next two 600MW units, which when completed will take capacity to 2.4GW. We expect further updates on this in H1 next year, which could help drive continued improved sentiment among investors, and positively impact the shares.
FY 2016 results
19 Jul 16
KSK has released its FY 2016 results, reporting strong revenues of US$675m (versus our US$600m forecast) and EBITDA of US$252m (versus our US$185m forecast). Based on this OCF was US$144m versus US$89.5m last year – demonstrating the impact of Mahanadi, which has been operating at a PLF of 80% on its entire 1,200MW existing capacity since October. We have increased our FY 2017 forecasts (revenues US$739m from US$644m, EBITDA US$273m from US$241m) given the strong generation performance from Mahanadi in H2 and higher pricing than we had expected in FY 2016. Mahanadi has now begun construction of the next 1,200MW phase (which would make 2,400MW total) thanks to new debt availability from KSK’s banks agreed earlier this year, meaning operating cash flow should continue to be augmented in the coming years.
H1 FY 2016 results
26 Nov 15
KSK has released its H1 FY 2016 results. Revenues were strong though margins were behind and interest charge ahead of our expectations. These could improve with greater utilisation of the generation base going forward. More important than the H1 financial performance and likely to provide a significant benefit in H2 however is the news that grid access for the Mahanadi plant into Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu has been implemented allowing PLF on the 1,200MW of available capacity to rise from 40% to 80% currently. This will have a positive earnings impact but also help de-risk and add flexibility to the financing structure for the project going forward. We have adjusted our FY 2016 sales forecasts up though our earnings numbers are maintained given the increased Mahanadi utilisation in H2 (discussed below). Operations at Wardha continue to be hampered as KSK pursues a long-term PPA and better coal pricing for the project. Overall, though we remain cautious the progress on Mahanadi is a distinct positive that should provide significant benefit if sustained going forward.
KSK Power Ventur*
21 Jul 15
KSK has released its results to March. These have reported revenues at US$382m coming in ahead of our US$344m. Operating profit was below our number however at US$40.6m versus our US$60.1m due in part to a US$24.6m impairment of compensation due on previous coal sales to the Wardha plant which are now to be settled by revised future prices as opposed to upfront cash. This had a knock on effect causing PBT to be behind our (US$136m) at (US$160m). EPS was ahead however coming in at (32.2c) versus our (58.8c) on the back of a deferred tax credit of US$91.2m. We have maintained our FY 2016 forecast (EPS shifts due to a higher number of shares and there is scope for upgrades from increased utilisation at Wardha and Mahanadi) and publish numbers for FY 2017.
Preliminary results show earnings ahead of forecast
16 Jul 15
KSK's preliminary results to 31 March show sales at $335.9m, down 14% but well ahead of our forecast $279.4m. EBTIDA at $101.9m was down 36% but well above our $72.1m. Net interest rose 57% to $130.2m against our $99.7m leaving PBT nearly in line at -$72.1m versus our -$69.9m. Much of the gap was due to our cautious exchange rate assumption but there was also better operational performance and development fees were ahead although we still to see these dropping away going forward. At the interest line the currency effect reverses and there are also timing differences that explain the forecasting variance. With a better tax charge EPS was -30.77c against our forecast of -32.97c.
09 Mar 15
KSK has provided an update on its operations and the ongoing coal block auctions in India. Operationally the expected uptick in activity on both Wardha and Mahanadi has not come through in the second half (despite the second 600MW unit on Mahanadi being commissioned) meaning revenues in FY 2015 are expected to be flat on FY 2014. Based on lower PLFs and some pricing and margin pressure for these projects versus our assumptions we are cutting forecasts for FY 2015 and we roll this effect over into FY 2016 too. Progress on sales and profitability at Mahanadi and Wardha could potentially come through quite quickly however. Mahanadi could more than double offtake once it receives grid access to sell power into Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. Wardha is also awaiting access to sell power into other states but also execution of a PPA with the Maharashtra state electricity board. The coal situation with Wardha which is depressing margins is also making some progress. Any and all of these factors could act in the coming months to increase offtake and profitability.
16 Jan 17
We take a look at the rankings of the various countries in Africa that have a significant exposure to mining. We take the Transparency International corruption rankings as our starting point and modify these for exceptional geology and for current UK government travel warnings. Ghana, Botswana and Namibia come out as our top three, with Eritrea, Kenya and Zimbabwe at the bottom of our rankings.
Small Cap Breakfast
17 Jan 17
Global Energy Development (GED.L) — To be renamed Nautilus Marine Services. Schedule 1 from developer and seller of hydrocarbons and related products. Reverse takeover. Raising $10.5m via a convertible. Expected 9 Feb. Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas—TSX-V listed oil and gas exploration has announced its intention to float on AIM. Assets in Guyana and Namibia. Proposed £2m-£3m fundraise. Diversified Gas & Oil—According to LSE website first day of trading on AIM now expected for 30 January.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
19 Jan 17
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Trading conditions difficult but acquisitions underpin growth
23 Jan 17
FY16 revenue will be £53.7m (FY15: £44.8m), in line with ZC estimate of £53.9m, showing growth of c. 20% yoy underpinned by the three acquisitions undertaken in the year. However, due to higher costs relating to the acquisitions and, to a lesser extent, gross margin pressure, PBT will be in the region of £7.0 to £7.2m equating to growth of between 5.5% and 8.0%. As a result, FY16 ZC profit forecast is reduced by 8.0% to £7.0m. The impact in FY18 and FY19 is muted by the announcement of a further acquisition leading to an increase in revenue estimates of 8.7% whilst profit estimates fall c.4.5% in each year, respectively. Despite the decrease in forecasts the PER multiple on FY17 earnings remains single digit at just 9.1x, against a distributor average of 15.8x. With commitment to the forecast dividend increase reiterated, Flowtech offers an above average yield of 4.1%
N+1 Singer - St Ives - Downgrade
19 Jan 17
Marketing activation has been impacted by further decline in grocery retail impacting profit by c£5m. Strategic The Company is also taking this opportunity to revise its guidance for Strategic Marketing as its recovery pace is not running at the planned target rate. PBT falls from N1Se £31.9m to £25m. The Company expects dividend to be held based upon lowered guidance and the implied cash flow performance. There do not appear to be any covenant issues. Forecasts and TP under review and downgrade to Hold. We expect the shares to test the 100p level.