Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on PAN AFRICAN RESOURCES PLC. We currently have 12 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
PAN AFRICAN RESOURCES PLC
PAN AFRICAN RESOURCES PLC
28 Oct 16
This quarter’s topic: We look at some recent smaller company mine start-ups. Some have been impeccably managed, with projects coming in ahead of schedule and on or under budget. Others have suffered teething problems before settling down whereas a few have fallen seriously short of expectations and have required substantial refinancing.
New dividend policy unveiled
28 Sep 16
Pan African’s FY16 results were closely in line with Edison’s expectations. Excluding Uitkomst, revenue of £164.7m compared with our forecast of £165.1m and costs of £103.9m compared with our forecast of £104.6m; precious metal mining profit was therefore £49.3m vs our expectation of £48.9m. The only material negative variance was in ‘other expenses’, where a loss of £12.2m (largely attributable to a mark-to-market loss on its small hedge position) compared with our expectation of an £8.9m loss, with the result that actual earnings were £25.5m (or 1.41p for EPS and HEPS) vs our expectation of 1.48p/share. Normalised HEPS and EPS were reported to be ZAR0.4424/share, or 2.08p/share (Edison conversion).
18 Aug 16
Continuing its tradition, Pan African (PAF) has released a trading statement under paragraph 3.4 (b) of the JSE listing requirements stating that its FY16 results will differ by at least 20% cf FY15. In this case, PAF has indicated that headline EPS (HEPS) will be 114-134% higher at 1.37-1.50p and that normalised HEPS (excluding financial instruments) will be 208-228% higher at 2.00-2.13p.
15 Jun 16
Topic of the quarter: We look at lithium – outlook, demand and supply. The metal is currently the subject of an astonishing level of hype, although massive near-term demand growth does appear to be real, driven principally by the growth in demand for electric and hybrid electric vehicles. We conclude that while demand is expected to grow rapidly, several substantial new sources of supply are scheduled to start producing in the near future with much more to follow. Currently known lithium reserves and resources are sufficient to power around nine billion cars – there is no shortage. We therefore see little need for prices to remain at present elevated levels for much longer.
Consensus eps falling…falling…falling…rising 2.0
29 Apr 16
In January we screened for companies with estimates that had been declining consistently since a year previously, but which had risen in the immediately preceding three months (see our note dated 22 January 2016). We have reviewed the performance of those companies and, given the overall strength of this selection, we have re-run the screen. In the c.3 months since selection, the unweighted average rise was c.34% against a c.11% rise in the main All-Share index. From the same universe as before (some 900 companies) we find 38 companies selected by the screen. We note a number of stocks in the list where we have a supportive stance including: Devro (DVO LN, Buy), James Fisher (FSJ LN, Corporate), Mattioli Woods (MTW LN, Buy) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN, Buy).
Tailings: finnCap Mining sector quarterly report (Issue 2)
21 Mar 16
This quarter’s topic: We consider the possibility that the Mining sector may have reached the low point of the current cycle. The finnCap 40 Mining Index has now been running since March 2014. Since our previous quarterly it has begun to show signs of recovery, with strong price appreciation since the start of 2016. The index low was reached on 20 January; since then it has risen by nearly 37%. It is far too soon to call a definite bottom in this cycle, but nevertheless this is encouraging.
08 Dec 16
Elderstreet stake acquired 02 GENERAL NEWS Globalworth premium In this issue Venture capital firm Draper Esprit has taken a 30.8% stake in venture capital trust manager Elderstreet. Both investment managers focus on the technology sector and they will be able to co-invest. Elderstreet has investments in a number of AIM-quoted companies through its VCTs. The purchase was funded by an issue of Draper Esprit shares worth just over £250,000. Simon Cook, the chief executive of Draper Esprit, is a former partner at Elderstreet so he knows the business and the people who run it, although he did leave more than 14 years ago. Cook has previously acquired portfolios from 3i and Cazenove, two other firms where he has worked. Draper Esprit has an option to acquire the remaining shares in Elderstreet, which has more than £25m under management. Adding Elderstreet to the group enables Draper Esprit to offer investors a range of EIS funds, VCTs and an ISA qualifying listed evergreen patient capital fund. The enlarged group has venture capital assets under management of more than £350m. At the end of September 2016, Draper Esprit had a net asset value of 352p a share, which is similar to the current share price. The June 2016 flotation price was 300p a share. Draper Esprit is quoted on Ireland’s Enterprise Securities Market as well as AIM.
01 Nov 16
Since our last outlook note, Quadrise has begun to supply MSAR for extended LONO sea trials, paving the way for commercial adoption from calendar H217 onwards. In August it signed a memorandum of understanding with clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which is a key enabler for progressing the production-to-combustion pilot there. In October it completed a placing and open offer raising a total of £5.25m (gross). This should enable it to transition comfortably to the commercial phase on successful completion of the LONO and KSA trials.
Dividends reinstated; is it time to turn (more) optimistic?
08 Dec 16
Glencore continues to surprise the markets, earlier with its fast pace of asset disposals and now with the reinstatement of dividends. The following were the key details shared with investors in a meeting held on 1 December 2016: 1/ completed $6.3bn of asset disposals; 2/ reduced net debt (including readily marketable inventories) by $12.5bn over the last 18 months; 3/ reiterated trading’s 2016 EBIT guidance towards the upper end of the $2.5-2.7bn range; 4/ expects healthy annualised 2016 free cash flows – even at Q1 16 commodity price lows; at 2017 forward prices, FCFs are guided to be $6.5bn; 5/ dividends would be reinstated from 2017 – with $1bn to be paid in two equal tranches in H1 and H2; thereafter (i.e. 2018 onwards), $1bn would be a fixed annual dividend payment (banking on the stability of trading’s cash flows) plus a minimum 25% of FCFs from industrial activities. Production guided to grow Source – Investor Presentation December 2016 While copper would be negatively impacted by the end-of-life impact at Alumbera and the Ernest Henry divestment, the output for all other commodities is guided to be higher (in varying degrees).
Raising Target Price to 2,500p per share
01 Nov 16
Royal Dutch reported clean EPS of US$0.35, nearly 50% ahead of consensus. More importantly, cash flow jumped QoQ to US$8.5bn which should go a long way to confirming Shell’s capacity to maintain the current dividend, despite the increase in gearing to 29.2%. Upstream returned to profitability on an underlying basis for the first time since 1Q15. We believe these results confirm our view that Shell’s dividend can and will be maintained at US$0.47 per quarter and we increase our Target Price to 2,500p per share, given further sterling weakness.