Decent Q3; an unforgiving market reaction to a weaker 2024 outlook

Despite only a slight miss in the Q3 vs. consensus, Sanofi’s shares were hammered today, as markets were disappointed with the 2024 outlook. Even the intention to separate CHC and a rebound guided in 2025 backed by the newly-announced cost saving plan could not lift investors’ spirits. However, given that the near-term earnings pain is due to an increasing R&D focus which is a sensible strategy for the longer-term, the sell-off was clearly an over-reaction and Sanofi’s attractiveness as a medium

A victim of (unwarranted) market panic after the Q3 23 results

While the Q3 results were not much short of expectations, the markets were disappointed with the management’s 2024 guidance of lower earnings, which triggered a sell-off. However, going into details, the near-term earnings pain comes from the increasing focus on R&D which, along with the 2024-25 cost savings program, should bode well for Sanofi’s longer-term organic growth and margins. Overall, investors need to sit tight, since the value lost today should soon be recouped, as was the case after

Sanofi – don't overlook this silent performer

Away from the limelight captured by Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca and Eli Lilly in the last five years, Sanofi has been growing steadily in valuation and profitability terms, despite facing various challenges. Going forward, while its lynchpin drug Dupixent has plenty of room to grow, there are promising drugs in other areas also. Overall, with the shares trading at a material discount to their historical multiples, despite numerous operating virtues and a strong balance sheet, Sanofi offers an attr

Mixed Q2; attractive price levels offer healthy upside

Sanofi’s Q2 results disappointed investors, which saw most other AV Big Pharmas exceeding the street’s expectations in this quarter. Nonetheless, for Sanofi, Specialty Care and Vaccines compensated for the subdued CHC and a decline in General Medicines. Consequently, management upgraded its 2023 guidance. Overall, a strong momentum for Dupixent, a dominant position in Vaccines, promising R&D developments of late and a healthy balance sheet support our BUY recommendation for the attractively-pric

Consensus-beating Q1, guidance unchanged

Sanofi’s Q1 results were ahead of expectations, with growth largely being driven by Dupixent, along with positive contributions from Vaccines and Consumer Healthcare. Still, 2023 guidance was maintained. Overall, we re-iterate our positive stance on Sanofi, drawing comfort from Dupixent’s robust growth prospects, strong position in Vaccines, a healthy balance sheet and expectations of improvement in R&D execution, especially given the recent successes and the change of R&D head. The re-rating th

Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2023

Feature article: 2022 Pharma Statistics - 8.7% growth – but worrying signs An efficient reporting system has seen all the listed multinational pharmaceutical companies announcing results for 2022, which has given us the opportunity to update our industry statistics and drug database. This report provides the first snapshot of the global and US rankings of the top 20 drug companies for 2022. 2022 was characterised by 8.7% underlying growth, offset by a large forex impact (-12%), due to USD stren

Soft Q4 + weak guidance but attractively-priced at present

Q4 sales fell short of expectations. Dupixent remained the key growth driver, supported by a good performance from Consumer Healthcare and somewhat offset by a weaker showing in Vaccines. Moreover, the 2023 guidance was weak. Nonetheless, given the healthy prospects of Dupixent, the strong positioning in Vaccines and the robust balance sheet, the firm has enough leeway to look for further growth opportunities. Sanofi looks attractively priced at the current levels, especially given the dissipati

Strong Q3 + full-year guidance upgraded

Q3 exceeded expectations, driven by a strong run for Dupixent and Vaccines, and resilient Consumer Healthcare. Consequently, the 2022 guidance was revised upwards. While some recent R&D setbacks in oncology, in addition to Zantac woes, could put more pressure on the CEO, our positive stance on the stock is supported by Dupixent’s sustained growth momentum – also backed by various newer indications in the pipeline, a dominance in vaccines and a healthy balance sheet.

Sanofi – down but certainly not out

In the last one month, Sanofi has corrected significantly vis-à-vis its Big Pharma peers. While sector-specific factors have contributed to this negative sentiment, potential fall-out from the Zantac litigations and continued R&D setbacks were the main pain-points. However, there are still plenty of positives to look forward to in this promising equity story, and we believe that this more than warranted correction has opened up an attractive entry point into the French pharma giant. Overall, our

Strong Q2; full-year outlook revised upwards

In Q2, Sanofi continued its solid growth momentum driven by a strong showing from Dupixent and the Consumer Healthcare Business. Although, Vaccines’ growth came in slightly lower than the other segments, this is not a reason to worry considering the underlying strength of the business, especially the flu vaccine. Moreover, the sustained profitability improvement meant that the firm’s transformation journey remained on track. Hence, our positive outlook on the stock is maintained.

Q1 - a good start to the year

Sanofi started 2022 on a good note, with solid growth being witnessed across the divisions. In Q1, Dupixent continued its good run, and was well-complemented by a recovering Consumer Healthcare business. While the individual Vaccines performance was slightly mixed, it remains well-poised to capitalize on recovering demand post the COVID-19 disruption. Overall, the firm’s transformation journey remains on track and, hence, our positive stock recommendation is maintained.

An encouraging 2021 + a promising outlook

Sanofi’s 2021 ended on a strong note, with positive takeaways across divisions. While there were some transient challenges in Q4, it doesn’t impact the firm’s performance momentum – also reflecting in a promising 2022 outlook. Overall, the firm remains on track to deliver on its business (transformation) promises and, hence, our positive stock recommendation is reinforced.

Strong Q3 powers another guidance upgrade

Sanofi reported an excellent Q3, with all divisions supporting the strong top-line momentum. Moreover, better sales and tight control over operations aided profitability improvements and, hence, underpinned another full-year outlook upgrade. While Sanofi has been (very) late in its COVID-19 vaccine ambitions, the strong potential in most other areas remains intact and supports our positive stock recommendation.

Strong Dupixent + Vaccines powers upward revision to outlook

Sanofi witnessed remarkable growth in Q2, with strong growth in the high-margin Dupixent and Vaccines business being complemented by the recovery in the consumer business. Moreover, the improving top-line and various cost control measures have led to a marked improvement in Q2 profitability, and thereby an upward revision to the full-year outlook. While resurfacing pandemic uncertainties may play spoilsport, additional catalysts in the form of the COVID-19 vaccine and Dupixent’s approval in newe

Stable Q1 21, full-year guidance maintained

Despite pertinent pandemic pressures and tough comps (due to panic buying), Sanofi reported decent growth in Q1 21 – driven by robust growth in the Dupixent and vaccine business. Moreover, profitability improved further due to the cost initiatives measures in place. While pandemic-induced uncertainties are here to stay, the group should find support from new launches and label and geographic expansion of key drugs. Additionally, success in the COVID-19 vaccine development space could prove anoth

Warpaint London+ (W7L, House Stock at 470p) - Outstanding FY23A - Upgrades!

Shield Therapeutics - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on ABC Arbitrage (ABCA), paragon (PGN), Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL), Kendrion (KENDR), Lithium Power International (LPI), Triple Point Energy Transition (TENT), 4iG (4IG), e-therapeutics (ETX), Pharnext (ALPHA) and Shield Therapeutics (STX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our web

Cambridge Nutritional Sciences - Operational efficiencies; adjusted EBITDA profi

Cambridge Nutritional Sciences (CNS) has provided a trading update for the 12 months to 31 March 2024, noting that a combination of strong sales growth and significant margin improvements, driven by operational efficiencies, have played key factors in the group’s expectation of being adjusted EBITDA positive in FY 2024. Revenues are expected to be £9.8m (30% YoY growth), ahead of our £9.0m forecast, with gross profits expected to exceed £6m, which is again ahead of our year-end forecast of £5.6m

Futura Medical: Eroxon poised for launch in key US market

Futura Medical’s investment case has shifted firmly onto commercial execution. The highly successful initial launches of Eroxon, its novel topical gel for ED (erectile dysfunction), by partner Cooper Consumer Health in the UK and Belgium are now being followed by roll-outs across the major European markets. The much-anticipated launch in the commercially important US market by consumer healthcare giant Haleon is expected before February 2025. Launches in Other Regions are anticipated throughout

Creo Medical Group - Speedboat savings validated

An official NHS Supply Chain case study has quantified the savings made by an NHS Trust from adopting Creo Medical’s Speedboat device to perform Speedboat Submucosal Dissection (SSD) in comparison to surgical alternatives. In total, the net cash saving from 130 SSD procedures for the NHS Trust was calculated at £687k, including savings from reduced length of hospital stay and reduced theatre costs. Notably, these savings did not include the patient and financial benefits associated with reduced

Morning Note – 24 April 2024

Destiny Pharma plc+ (DEST, House Stock at 22p) - All eyes on XF-73

Creo Medical - NHS data validates Speedboat’s economic merit

Creo Medical has presented real-world evidence of the economic utility of its minimally invasive electrosurgical devices, based on NHS data from 130 submucosal dissection procedures using Creo’s flagship Speedboat Inject device. The data demonstrated net cash savings of £687k for the NHS trust, driven by a significant reduction in both hospitalisation and critical care costs. We believe this provides external validation to Creo’s pursuit of improving patients’ outcomes through its novel suite of

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 April 24

24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

Warpaint London+ (W7L, House Stock at 375p) - Trading ahead of expectations - +10% upgrade implied

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 25 April 2024

25th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: Smart Metering Systems (SMS.L) has delisted from the AIM market What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 22 April 2024

22nd April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

Cambridge Nutritional Sciences - H1 2024 interims: Executing a newly focussed st

Cambridge Nutritional Sciences (CNS) has published its H1 2024 results to end September 2023. Group revenues grew 44% to £4.9m and gross profits increased by 63% to £3.1m, with the company benefitting from newfound operational efficiencies. With its now streamlined strategy focussing on the core Health & Nutrition business and the initial signs of an encouraging uptick in sales momentum, we believe the company is well positioned for growth that will help create future value for shareholders. We

e-therapeutics - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on ABC Arbitrage (ABCA), paragon (PGN), Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL), Kendrion (KENDR), Lithium Power International (LPI), Triple Point Energy Transition (TENT), 4iG (4IG), e-therapeutics (ETX), Pharnext (ALPHA) and Shield Therapeutics (STX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our web

Venture Life Group - Strong organic growth; focus on EBITDA

Venture Life has reported FY23 results to December 2023, following the February trading update. Revenues grew 17% in the year to £51.4m (our est. £50.7m) and adjusted EBITDA was £11.6m (our est. £11.6m). Cash conversion was 85%, generating £9.8m of cash from operations. Cash generation and no M&A in 2023 allowed the company to de-lever, closing FY23 with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 1.3x. Management have focused on growth with three therapy areas generating double-digit revenue growth and onli