LIBERUM: Building Materials & Housebuilders: Things to watch next week

Morning Song

ATTRAQT Group (ATQT LN) Interims show encouraging progress | Bodycote (BOY LN) Strong H1 growth, modest upgrade to guidance | Brooks Macdonald Group (BRK LN) FuM +6.5%: Better markets in Q4, net inflows sustained at 9% annualised | Findel (FDL LN) Strong start to the year with both divisions performing | Frontier Smart Technologies Group (FST LN) Trading in line with revised expectations | Howden Joinery Group (HWDN LN) Solid H1 results given circumstances + on track to meet FY forecasts | Renis

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 02-11-2017

Howden Joinery Group (HWDN LN) Positive trading underpins f/casts despite the tougher backdrop | Wilmington (WIL LN) No change to trading trends

N+1 Singer - Howden Joinery Group - Positive trading underpins f/casts despite the tougher backdrop

Howden has delivered another solid trading performance in H2, all the more stand-out this time given the weak trading patterns and deferred spending trends being reported in adjacent consumer sectors due to declining consumer confidence and negative real wages. LFL depot growth of c5-6% was better than many feared and reflects the benefits of innovation/new ranges as well as, we believe, a greater emphasis on driving volume (over price) than earlier in the year. Although 10% of sales are yet to

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 09-06-2017

Retail Government uncertainty to weigh on domestic consumer stocks

N+1 Singer - Howden Joinery Group - Solid start to FY17 means on track to meet forecasts

In the recent 2 months the share price has bounced almost 100p (26%), racing through our previous 415p estimate of fair value. Although £ recovery has helped in that time (£/$ +4%, £/€ +2.5%) this adds back only c1.5% to PBT (COGS headwind reduced by c£3-4m), making today’s 4-month update more relevant than normal. Trading in the period is ahead 3.9%, or 2.4% on a LFL basis. With estimated inflation of c3-4%, this suggests LFL volumes marginally negative but not changed versus the previous perio

N+1 Singer - Retail - Matthew - Brexit driven forecasts and valuation update

Prior to the EU vote, fears of Brexit undermined consumer confidence and spending patterns, and sterling weakened against the US$ and the €. Wider fears for employment, consumer spending and economic slow-down had hit Retail stocks significantly (-10% rel. YTD). Friday’s surprise Brexit vote has impacted Sterling again and will further knock confidence and spending too. The sector came under material further pressure as a result, falling 10% on the day vs the Allshare’s 3%. As noted on Friday, t

Strong trading in recent 8 weeks. Low end f/casts to edge up

We suspected that Howden might have traded well in the most recent couple of months and its trading update is not a disappointment in that regard. Sales increased by c8% in LFL depots, taking the 16 week growth to 6.4% LFL (8.7% total growth). The commentary on pricing (vs FX headwinds) is also encouraging. We therefore anticipate low end forecasts being upgraded by c2% this morning. Alongside the reassurance on margins we would expect the shares to claw back the remainder of the gap (vs the rec

Morning Song

accesso Technology (ACSO LN) Consistent growth, increasing margins and few risks | Earthport (EPO LN) Solving a $9.3bn+ problem | Gresham Computing (GHT LN) Positive AGM statement | Howden Joinery Group (HWDN LN) Strong trading in recent 8 weeks. Low end f/casts to edge up | James Fisher & Sons (FSJ LN) Trading in line | NCC Group (NCC LN) Strong revenue growth, margins lower | Oxford BioMedica (OXB LN) Final results and portfolio review | Redde (REDD LN) Strong trading continues in H2 | Sepura

Positioning for future profitable growth

Prelims are 3% ahead of expectations, through slightly better LFL growth and slightly less cost growth. Of the £33m YoY PBT growth, c£9m relates to the favourable FX tailwind. Based on current FX rates, we estimate the headwind in FY16 will exceed that, possibly c£11-12m. End markets remain favourable and HWDN is investing in capability to continue profitable expansion – now with a 800 depot target (619 now) and additional trials in Europe. An extra £15m of opex (2.5%) is flagged as part of this

Strengthening FX headwinds, downgrade to HOLD

Howden Joinery has been enjoying strong trading momentum in recovering markets and is developing a long term strategy for continued growth. In FY’15 PBT also benefited from favourable FX movements, with £/€ strength comfortably offsetting slight £/$ weakness. However, both rates have been on the slide recently. Already this means a c£8-9m headwind and some believe Sterling could slide further. After of a slight increase in LFL growth assumptions we have downgraded EPS forecasts by 1% today. We h

Trading remains very strong and shares are oversold – Buy from Hold

Strong trading in July, alongside favourable subsequent anecdotes, meant we didnt expect to see the effects of soggy conditions behind warnings elsewhere (e.g. TPK) replicated here. Today’s update confirms this. Performance in H2, including the key October trading period, has been outstanding at +10% LFL particularly once positive gross margins are also factored in. After a 15% correction HWDN has gone from being overbought back in June to slightly oversold - so with a 2.5% PBT upgrade today and

Excellent trading momentum in UK but small H1 miss and no u/grades

Howden Joinery has performed extremely well in H1 with LFL depot growth of 8.6%. The 2-year run rate exiting from Q2 to Q3 is encouraging and we are upgrading sales expectations despite comps get tougher over peak. There may also be scope to add a bit more FX benefit to margins. However, with significant cost increases, partly from volume and partly investment in capability/capacity, H1 results were slightly behind and upgrades of any significance look unlikely. We argued ahead of the results th

PROGRESSIVE: Watkin Jones: H1 in-line amid reviving investor appetite

Watkin Jones’s guidance for FY24E is unchanged in its trading update for the first half to 31 March. We maintain our forecasts for the full year and introduce half-year estimates, in line with reiterated guidance that performance will be significantly H2 weighted. The group confirms a continuing gradual recovery in appetite among institutional investors to forward fund its build-to-rent (BTR) and student developments. We believe this should gather pace as the direction of interest rates becomes

Ceres Power Holdings - Strategic partnerships powering growth

Ceres Power Holdings’ innovative technology uses electrolysis to produce green hydrogen and solid oxide fuel cells to generate power. In a year where it moved to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, it recorded revenue growth of 13% and gross margin expansion to 61% (the highest in the sector, according to management), but is yet to record an operating profit (FY23 operating loss of £59.4m versus £54.0m in FY22). Ceres continued its strategy to drive innovation and technology across sol

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Strategic growth drivers show their value in challenging trading conditions

Sanderson Design Group (SDG) has announced its FY24 full-year results, which are in line with the headline figures from its February trading update. A record year for Licensing and a strong performance in the key North America market helped to offset a challenging consumer environment in other geographies, most notably the UK. While this backdrop is set to persist in FY25E, the group will continue to focus on its strategic growth drivers, notably North America and Licensing, to deliver sharehold

Surface Transforms - Fund raise for the profitable growth phase

SCE is raising £16m through a placing (and up to a further £3m through open offer) to fund substantial expansion and additional working capital. This will enable the Group to grow to £75m revenue capacity in the near term, commence the build and equipping of a new factory and then (with internally generated free cash flow) scale to £150m revenue capacity and beyond. With a contracted order book of £190m and a prospective pipeline of £400m, this is clearly the time to seize the opportunity. The e

Zeus: Video Games Sector Quarterly review - January 2024

Subsector price performance: In the fourth quarter to 29 December 2023 all but the AAA publishers and platform subsector saw share price declines. The UK PC and Console focused subsector was again the worst performing subsector (-26.2%) over the quarter and LTM (-70.1%).

Surface Transforms - New guidance – forecasts under review

Surface Transforms has issued new revenue guidance for FY24, with the company now expecting revenues in the range £17.5-22m. We are withdrawing our previous forecasts for FY24 and withdrawing our price target while we review the impact of the new guidance.

Solid State - Anticipating record adjusted PBT in FY24

Solid State’s trading update affirms the sustained strength in demand throughout H224, resulting in record FY24 revenue and adjusted PBT ahead of prior consensus of £155m and £12.5m, respectively. This is attributable to the earlier-than-expected delivery of a NATO contract. As a result, consensus FY24 revenue and adjusted PBT estimates have been raised by c 6% and c 20%, with respective FY25 estimates declining commensurately.

Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) - A chink of light

Gooch has issued a positive update for H1. Trading has started to recover with stocking levels normalising at industrial and medical devices customers. The outlook is positive with growth returning, and management has confirmed our full year estimates (adjusted for the disposal of EM4). The order book and order flow appear healthy, and net debt is comfortable. Gooch clearly still has plenty to do to lift operating margins from a lacklustre 8.1%, but the transformation plan appears to be back on

AKA: Initiating Coverage of a.k.a. Brands with Buy and $14 PT: Upside Ahead

We are initiating coverage of a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. ("a.k.a. Brands" or the "company"), a leading owner of primarily online apparel-based brands focused on Generation Z and Millennial consumers, with a Buy rating and $14.00 price target, or 10.9X our 2025 EBITDA projection of $20.2 million. The company's brands include: 1) Princess Polly, focusing on 15 to 25 year-old women; 2) Petal & Pup, which offers feminine styles for 25 to 34 year-old women; 3) Culture Kings, a street wear destinatio

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 14 Mar 2024

Banquet Buffet*** Abingdon Health 9.25p £11.3m (ABDX.L) The lateral flow contract development and manufacturing organisation announces its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2023. Revenue increased 117% to £2.4m (H1 2023: £1.1m). The Adjusted EBITDA loss decreased 47% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.2m). Furthermore, reduction in operating loss of 50% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.4m). The Board therefore expects that H2 2024 revenue will be significantly improved compared with H1 2024

AFC Energy (AFC LN) - First modular ammonia cracker system

AFC has unveiled a groundbreaking modular ammonia cracker system demonstrating viable and scaleable production of hydrogen in the UK using this method. The cracker system is designed to deliver 140 tonnes of fuel cell grade hydrogen each year. Hydrogen from the plant will initially be targeted for sale into AFC’s UK H-Power Generator deployments, including those with Speedy Hydrogen Solutions. Along with the recent purchase of the mobile storage and distribution assets of Octopus Hydrogen, AFC c

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Delivering to strategy against an unhelpful global backdrop

Sanderson Design Group (SDG) continues to deliver on its key strategic initiatives and growth drivers despite a challenging global backdrop. The group’s FY23 performance showed flat revenue, with adjusted underlying PBT rising £0.1m to £12.6m. Net cash dropped back to £15.4m, with the total dividend maintained at 3.5p. The star performers were Licensing (reported revenue +25%), the Morris & Co brand (+16%) and the US market (+20%). Our forecast revisions assume more modest sales progression, wit

AFC Energy (AFC LN) - FY23a and outlook: good progress

AFC has made strong progress with products and its manufacturing strategy. Despite heavy investment, the cash position, at £27.4m, was slightly better than our estimate for £26.9m, demonstrating good discipline. The monthly cash burn rate (at c. £1.3m) is tracking in-line with our expectations. Generally, we maintain our estimates for significantly increased sales in FY24e and FY25e, with the cash position unchanged. Recent news on commercial progress has been positive. The 30kW H-Power Generato

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Strategic growth pillars bolster results

Sanderson Design Group has delivered its full-year trading update to 31 January 2024. Group revenue has eased back 3.1% to £108.5m on a reported basis, following the 2% decline in H1. The strongest performances were delivered by the strategic growth cornerstones of Licensing and North America, offset by challenging market conditions in the UK, Europe and the Rest of the World. A strong balance sheet saw year-end cash rise to £16.2m, compared with £15.4m at year-end FY23. Having traded in line wi