Strong FCF offers scope for cash returns

Smiths News - On track to meet guidance

Smiths News’ trading update highlights the resilience of its business model in a tough macroeconomic environment, with FY24 results expected to be in line with consensus. As a reminder, our 2024e PBT forecast stands flat at £33.4m despite an anticipated 6% y-o-y decline in revenue to £1.0bn, attributable to management’s tight control of the business and the ongoing annual efficiencies being delivered. Smiths has renewed several long-term publisher contracts in the past year, which could imply vi

Smiths News - Expansion initiatives begin to blossom

The FY23 results highlight continued growth in adjusted operating profit, management’s tight control of the business and the ongoing annual efficiencies being delivered. Smiths may also renew several long-term publisher contracts this year, which could imply visibility over at least 80% of annual revenues to 2029. Furthermore, development of new profit streams is beginning to create momentum, which may have the potential to more than offset the slow decline in core profits and support the divide

Smiths News - Resilient performance despite headwinds

Smiths News’ recent trading update highlights continued growth in adjusted operating profit, which is anticipated to be at least in line with market expectations of £38.3m (Edison: £38.1m). This represents a marginal increase of 0.5% year-on-year, despite the substantial inflationary impacts seen in the past two years. We expect additional publisher contract renewals to be secured in the next year, which should further bolster the company’s cash-generative business model and underpin the sustain

Smiths News - Interim profits exceed pre-COVID levels

The interim H123 results highlight continued growth in adjusted operating profit, management’s solid control of the business and the ongoing annual efficiencies being delivered. Furthermore, development of new profit streams are beginning to create momentum, which we expect should offset the anticipated decline in core revenues and support the payment of the dividend. This follows the signing of numerous long-term publisher contracts recently, which collectively account for 65% of current revenu

Smiths News - Contract renewals cement future cash flows

Smiths News announced yesterday that it has secured its fifth major publisher contract renewal with News UK & Ireland, publisher of The Sun, The Times and The Sunday Times. This follows new five-year agreements with Associated Newspapers, Telegraph Media Group (TMG), Frontline and Seymour Distribution, which collectively account for 65% of current newspaper and magazine revenues. We expect additional contract renewals to be secured in the next year. These renewals bolster the company’s cash-gene

Smiths News - Better FY22 than expected; 10% dividend yield

Smiths News’ FY22 results were strong, with revenue and profit ahead of market expectations. Continuing adjusted PBT increased by 0.6% to £31.1m as financing costs reduced and net debt fell to £14.2m. Management was successful in mitigating inflation and controlling costs within budget. FY23 has started well, with uplifts in one-shot revenues and ancillary income. However, we have upgraded our forecasts, and an increase in the discount rate has driven a decrease in our DCF valuation from 94p to

Smiths News - Sub 3x P/E and a 15% dividend yield

Smith News’ FY22 trading update highlighted slightly better trading than we expected as the market normalised and publishers raised cover prices. Furthermore, management was able to control costs within budget. The new financial year has started well with increased One-shot sales, which are likely to increase with the upcoming FIFA World Cup and the forthcoming coronation. We have raised our FY22 and FY23 estimates modestly, which drives our increased valuation from 92p to 94p. Smiths News is tr

Smiths News - Stronger balance sheet leads to big dividend hike

Smiths News management again delivered on its promises and produced a strong set of interim results, with PBT up 6.3% and EPS up 10.9%. The interim dividend was nearly tripled due to a combination of already announced loosened banking arrangements and considerably lower debt levels. This implies a full-year dividend of 4.2p, which could offer investors a yield of c 13%. Underlying market conditions continue to normalise and with the one-off proceeds now received, we have increased our valuation

Smiths News - Strong results, debt falling rapidly

Management delivered on promises again as Smiths News produced a strong set of FY21 results. Operating profit increased nearly 13% and net debt fell to £53m (1.2x net debt:EBITDA versus c 2.0x in August 2020). Underlying market conditions are normalising and the company has adopted new sustainability targets, which is encouraging. We have raised our forecasts to reflect better-than-expected trading while acknowledging that inflationary pressures exist in the market. On the back of the upgrade, w

Smiths News - Predictable cash flows and growing dividends

Smiths News has successfully performed a turnaround of the business that has seen it return to a core newspaper and magazine distribution operation. While the print sector is declining, revenue is predictable and management has a clearly demonstrable cost-saving track record such that cash flow is strong and profits are broadly flat, post COVID-19. This means that debt is being paid down and dividends are likely to become an increasing feature. We value the business at 77p, twice the current pri