LIBERUM: Building Materials & Housebuilders: Things to watch next week

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 02 Mar 23

02 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 26/07/22

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: Vivo Energy Plc has left the main market of the London Stock Exchange. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Inteliqo Limited, intends to join the Aquis Growth Market. Inteliqo Limited provides sales, marketing and distribution services to technology product owners under long-term distribution agreements. The Company has agreed its first such agreement in respect of the Ipedia iQ product range. The iQ product is a smart translation earphone (ear

Tyman - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Brooge Energy (BROG), Tyman (TYMN), SymBio Pharmaceuticals (4582), Aspire Global (0EAZ), CiiTECH and Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

Tyman - Successfully navigating market challenges

Tyman’s business model stood up well to some unprecedented FY21 supply chain challenges and earnings were slightly above our estimates, despite some lag in recovering higher input costs. Our existing earnings estimates are similarly robust and the group has financial capacity for a more active M&A phase, subject to opportunities arising.

Tyman - Regional variation in resilient markets

Residential markets remain firm and Tyman’s International division has been the star performer so far in H2. At the same time, supply chain challenges have constrained progress more in the other two divisions. We have modestly lowered our FY21 PBT expectations and nudged up FY22, supported by robust markets and normalising margins.

Small Cap Feast 17/11/2021

Banquet Buffet Alumasc Group 242.5p £87.6m (ALU.L) The Alumasc Group plc, the manufacturer and supplier of sustainable building products, systems and solutions, has received London Stock Exchange's Green Economy Mark.  The Alumasc Group plc provides high-quality, low carbon, sustainable building products, systems and solutions which help manage the scarce resources of energy and water in the built environment and improve quality of life for the owner/occupier. Paul Hooper, CEO of The Alumasc G

Enjoying good momentum; factoring in higher margins

CMD - key takeaways

Tyman - More upgrades from ongoing trading momentum

A strong end to FY20 has fed into good momentum at the beginning of FY21 and all three divisions performed ahead of management’s expectations in the first four months of the year. Moreover, Tyman is more optimistic now about the outlook for the remainder of the year. We have raised our earnings estimates by c 10% following similar upgrades with the FY20 results at the beginning of March.

Tyman - Strong end to FY20, positive start to FY21

Tyman successfully navigated a major trading shock from COVID-19 across multiple geographies in FY20, ultimately delivering only a modest earnings reduction. A stronger balance sheet and good trading momentum in the early part of FY21 are positives for investors and our estimates are modestly increased after allowing for FX headwinds. Tyman entered FY21 in a position of strength and, as market pandemic effects recede, strategy and underlying business performance should come more to the fore.

Tyman - Solid end to a challenging year

Tyman’s latest update indicates that trading has remained solid with full-year revenues and EBIT likely to be slightly above consensus. Like-for-like group revenue in the first two months of Q4 was +1% (following on from +3% in Q3). This brings the year-to-date equivalent up to -8%, which is slightly better than half of the rate of decline seen at the interim stage (including the main COVID-19 impact in Q2). Our estimates are modestly increased for this year and unchanged subsequently on an unde

Tyman - Momentum accelerates in Q3

After COVID-19 affected Q2/H1 trading, recovering market conditions in Q3 led to Tyman achieving +3% like-for-like revenue growth in the quarter (and flat in reported terms). In addition, net debt continues to track down. With improved momentum going into Q4, we have reintroduced earnings estimates, which show a c 13% y-o-y reduction in FY20 EPS followed by a 9% rebound in FY21. We have factored in dividends resuming next year, although management is to consider a modest FY20 final payout depend

Tyman - Managing well in the recovery phase

Market conditions have affected Tyman’s regional operations in different ways; with revenues recovering now and a settled funding outlook, the COVID-19 challenges appear to have been navigated well so far. The company typically has a seasonal H2 trading bias; the extent to which the recovery to date can be sustained in this important period will be a key determinant of the full year outturn. Other actions taken should also aid the recovery phase. Our estimates remain suspended at this time.

Tyman - FY19 results and response to COVID-19 impact

Trading uncertainties arising from the coronavirus pandemic are currently overshadowing some positive aspects seen in Tyman’s H219 performance. Steps are being taken to reduce costs and control cash outflows (including cancelling the FY19 final dividend) to manage business liquidity within existing funding facilities and sustain operational agility to respond to normalising conditions when they occur. For now forward guidance has been withdrawn, as have our estimates.

PROGRESSIVE: Watkin Jones: H1 in-line amid reviving investor appetite

Watkin Jones’s guidance for FY24E is unchanged in its trading update for the first half to 31 March. We maintain our forecasts for the full year and introduce half-year estimates, in line with reiterated guidance that performance will be significantly H2 weighted. The group confirms a continuing gradual recovery in appetite among institutional investors to forward fund its build-to-rent (BTR) and student developments. We believe this should gather pace as the direction of interest rates becomes

Ceres Power Holdings - Strategic partnerships powering growth

Ceres Power Holdings’ innovative technology uses electrolysis to produce green hydrogen and solid oxide fuel cells to generate power. In a year where it moved to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, it recorded revenue growth of 13% and gross margin expansion to 61% (the highest in the sector, according to management), but is yet to record an operating profit (FY23 operating loss of £59.4m versus £54.0m in FY22). Ceres continued its strategy to drive innovation and technology across sol

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Strategic growth drivers show their value in challenging trading conditions

Sanderson Design Group (SDG) has announced its FY24 full-year results, which are in line with the headline figures from its February trading update. A record year for Licensing and a strong performance in the key North America market helped to offset a challenging consumer environment in other geographies, most notably the UK. While this backdrop is set to persist in FY25E, the group will continue to focus on its strategic growth drivers, notably North America and Licensing, to deliver sharehold

Surface Transforms - Fund raise for the profitable growth phase

SCE is raising £16m through a placing (and up to a further £3m through open offer) to fund substantial expansion and additional working capital. This will enable the Group to grow to £75m revenue capacity in the near term, commence the build and equipping of a new factory and then (with internally generated free cash flow) scale to £150m revenue capacity and beyond. With a contracted order book of £190m and a prospective pipeline of £400m, this is clearly the time to seize the opportunity. The e

Solid State - Anticipating record adjusted PBT in FY24

Solid State’s trading update affirms the sustained strength in demand throughout H224, resulting in record FY24 revenue and adjusted PBT ahead of prior consensus of £155m and £12.5m, respectively. This is attributable to the earlier-than-expected delivery of a NATO contract. As a result, consensus FY24 revenue and adjusted PBT estimates have been raised by c 6% and c 20%, with respective FY25 estimates declining commensurately.

Zeus: Video Games Sector Quarterly review - January 2024

Subsector price performance: In the fourth quarter to 29 December 2023 all but the AAA publishers and platform subsector saw share price declines. The UK PC and Console focused subsector was again the worst performing subsector (-26.2%) over the quarter and LTM (-70.1%).

Surface Transforms - New guidance – forecasts under review

Surface Transforms has issued new revenue guidance for FY24, with the company now expecting revenues in the range £17.5-22m. We are withdrawing our previous forecasts for FY24 and withdrawing our price target while we review the impact of the new guidance.

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) - A chink of light

Gooch has issued a positive update for H1. Trading has started to recover with stocking levels normalising at industrial and medical devices customers. The outlook is positive with growth returning, and management has confirmed our full year estimates (adjusted for the disposal of EM4). The order book and order flow appear healthy, and net debt is comfortable. Gooch clearly still has plenty to do to lift operating margins from a lacklustre 8.1%, but the transformation plan appears to be back on

AKA: Initiating Coverage of a.k.a. Brands with Buy and $14 PT: Upside Ahead

We are initiating coverage of a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. ("a.k.a. Brands" or the "company"), a leading owner of primarily online apparel-based brands focused on Generation Z and Millennial consumers, with a Buy rating and $14.00 price target, or 10.9X our 2025 EBITDA projection of $20.2 million. The company's brands include: 1) Princess Polly, focusing on 15 to 25 year-old women; 2) Petal & Pup, which offers feminine styles for 25 to 34 year-old women; 3) Culture Kings, a street wear destinatio

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 14 Mar 2024

Banquet Buffet*** Abingdon Health 9.25p £11.3m (ABDX.L) The lateral flow contract development and manufacturing organisation announces its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2023. Revenue increased 117% to £2.4m (H1 2023: £1.1m). The Adjusted EBITDA loss decreased 47% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.2m). Furthermore, reduction in operating loss of 50% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.4m). The Board therefore expects that H2 2024 revenue will be significantly improved compared with H1 2024

AFC Energy (AFC LN) - First modular ammonia cracker system

AFC has unveiled a groundbreaking modular ammonia cracker system demonstrating viable and scaleable production of hydrogen in the UK using this method. The cracker system is designed to deliver 140 tonnes of fuel cell grade hydrogen each year. Hydrogen from the plant will initially be targeted for sale into AFC’s UK H-Power Generator deployments, including those with Speedy Hydrogen Solutions. Along with the recent purchase of the mobile storage and distribution assets of Octopus Hydrogen, AFC c

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Delivering to strategy against an unhelpful global backdrop

Sanderson Design Group (SDG) continues to deliver on its key strategic initiatives and growth drivers despite a challenging global backdrop. The group’s FY23 performance showed flat revenue, with adjusted underlying PBT rising £0.1m to £12.6m. Net cash dropped back to £15.4m, with the total dividend maintained at 3.5p. The star performers were Licensing (reported revenue +25%), the Morris & Co brand (+16%) and the US market (+20%). Our forecast revisions assume more modest sales progression, wit

AFC Energy (AFC LN) - FY23a and outlook: good progress

AFC has made strong progress with products and its manufacturing strategy. Despite heavy investment, the cash position, at £27.4m, was slightly better than our estimate for £26.9m, demonstrating good discipline. The monthly cash burn rate (at c. £1.3m) is tracking in-line with our expectations. Generally, we maintain our estimates for significantly increased sales in FY24e and FY25e, with the cash position unchanged. Recent news on commercial progress has been positive. The 30kW H-Power Generato

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Strategic growth pillars bolster results

Sanderson Design Group has delivered its full-year trading update to 31 January 2024. Group revenue has eased back 3.1% to £108.5m on a reported basis, following the 2% decline in H1. The strongest performances were delivered by the strategic growth cornerstones of Licensing and North America, offset by challenging market conditions in the UK, Europe and the Rest of the World. A strong balance sheet saw year-end cash rise to £16.2m, compared with £15.4m at year-end FY23. Having traded in line wi