Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – Kun Manie copper concentrate production | Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) - Madjan Peak Shows Epithermal Gold Potential in Northern Kosovo | Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – Q1 Results highlight progress towards feasibility study | Rambler Metals* (RMM LN) – Appointment of new CEO | Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – Mina do Barroso EIA submission | Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Award of US$21.9m by arbitrator
Companies: AMC BEM MKA RMM SAV SML
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) - BUY – Strategy update | Aura Energy* (AURA LN) – General meeting rejects proposed new directors | Bluejay Mining plc (JAY LN) – Chairman’s statement highlights work with Rio Tinto and near-term ilmenite (titanium) production | Chaarat Gold* (CGH LN) - BUY – Quarterly production increases, costs come down, FY20 target reiterated at 55koz | Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Draft environmental programme submitted for Leigh Creek
Companies: AAZ AURA JAY CGH SML
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) - BUY – 18.2koz produced in Q1/20 with 75-80koz FY19 guidance on target | Ariana Resources* (AAU LN) 345p, Mkt Cap £35.0m – Q1 Production report | Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 119p, Mkt Cap £154.5m –Production ramps to design capacity at Proyecto | Riotinto Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) 3.87p, Mkt cap £36m – Exploration Licences in South Greenland offer great potential | Chaarat Gold* (CGH LN) - BUY – Proposed equity raise | Highland Gold (HGM LN) 231p, Mkt Cap £842m – Strong FY19 with a third interim dividend announced by the Board | Rainbow Rare Earths (RBW LN) 2.03p, Mkt Cap £7.7m – Export of another 100t of rare earth concentrate | Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 0.47p, Mkt Cap £7.7m –Cobre magnetite sales | URU Metals* (URU LN) 120p, Mkt Cap £0.9m – Permitting update for the Zebediela project in South Africa
Companies: AAZ AAU ATYM JAY CGH HGM RBW SML URU
Companies: FIPP SOLI SML AAU POW DNL BAR CTP RENX
Ariana Resources* (AAU LN) – Due diligence completed | Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN)* – New exploration licences in Botswana | Caledonia Mining* (CMCL LN) – Deferral of dividend | Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) – 2019 results and decision to forego a dividend distribution | Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) – Diamond sale | Glencore (GLEN LN) defers $2.6bn dividend decision.| Greatland Gold (GGP LN) –Newcrest exploration achieves 40% interest in the Havieron project | Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Experiencing little impact from Covid19 | Scotgold Resources* (SGZ LN) – Interims | Vast Resources* (VAST LN) – Chiadzwa Community Diamond Project update
Companies: AAU BOD CMCL CAML GEMD GLEN GGP SML SGZ VAST
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Year-end results | Cora Gold* (CORA LN) – Metallurgy testwork for production of concentrate to be processed at Yanfolila | Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) –Cobre rolls over magnetite access for 8th year
Companies: BEM CORA SML
Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) – Publication of a circular with regards to a £6.4m La Mancha equity investment | Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – 81.4koz GEOs produced in FY19 with net cash position up at $21.1m | Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – | Q2 results highlight Newmont’s continuing interest in Anzá | Rambler Metals & Mining* (RMM LN) – Off-take partner financing facility | Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – Mining licence issued at Mutamba | Serabi Gold (SRB LN) – Over 40,000oz gold production for the first time in 2019 | Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) –Cobre magnetite sales
Companies: ALS AAZ OMI RMM SAV SRB SML
Base Resources (BSE LN) – Toliara, Ranobe ore reserve shows high-grade ilmenite, rutile, leucoxene and zircon | Rambler Metals & Mining* (RMM LN) – Latest high-grade results from the Ming Mine drilling | Rio Tinto to spend US$4bn on new iron ore projects in Australia (Bloomberg) | Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) –Tax rebate for Cornwall Resources’ Redmoor exploration | Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Issue of convertible
Companies: BSE RMM SML TYM
Condor Gold (CNR LN) – Permit submissions for high grade feeder pits| Kavango Resources (KAV LN) – Drilling intersects high-level gabbroic intrusive at 53m | Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Leigh Creek feasibility progress
Companies: CNR KAV SML
The FT reports that World Chess has announced plans for a novel “hybrid” IPO where it will first issue a digital token ahead of an AIM float The Pebble Group, a provider of products, services and technology to the global promotional products industry, announces its intention to seek admission of its shares to trading on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange, which is expected to take place in early December 2019.The Group delivered revenue of £99.8m in the year ended 31 December 2018.No mention of bottom line and a suggestion that funds raised would provide an exit to private equity shareholders and the repayment of debt. Offer TBA. Longboat Energy raising £10m. Expected admission November 2019. The company has been established by the former management team of Faroe Petroleum to create a new full-cycle North Sea oil and gas company .The strategy to achieve this will initially be through the acquisition of assets where the management team can add value through subsurface and operational improvements, follow-up deal opportunities and nearfield exploration; and by value creation through the drill bit. Sapo PLC - Seeks to invest in the developing market for rural broadband in the UK. Due 2 Dec. Taseko Mines - North American focused copper producer and developer, seeking a London Listing. No capital raise. Due 22 Dec SDIC Power - “potential intention to float”. Proposed GDR listing. Leading power generation company in China, with a diversified portfolio of projects across hydropower, coal-fired power, wind power and solar power. Offer TBA. Octopus Renewables - Seeking raise of up to £250m. Will seek to provide investors with an attractive and sustainable level of income returns, with an element of capital growth by investing in a geographically and technologically diversified spread of renewable energy assets—Due 10 Dec
Companies: BRK DNL POS YEW SML AAU KCT LVCG CCS HAYD
Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) – Glencore agrees C$1m of funding for Stonepark Zinc project in Ireland | BlueRock Diamonds* (BRD LN) – Houston and Simbanegavi drive record production and new value at Kareevlei diamond mine | Cora Gold* (CORA LN) – Flash note: De-risking Sanankoro Gold Project | Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Q1 results | Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Resumption of regular sales at Cobre magnetite in the US | Tri-Star Resources* (TSTR LN) – Tri-Star reports antimony concentrate grade at 99.5% with 5% gold | Wealth Minerals (WML CN) – Uranium One MOU signed for the Atacama Lithium Project
Companies: ARK BRD CORA OMI SML TSTR WML
Erris Resources (ERIS LN) – Scandinavian exploration update | Rainbow Rare Earths (RBW LN) – Annual results and strategic review | Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Redmoor acquisition payment
Companies: ERIS RBW SML
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InfraStrata's acquisition of the iconic Harland & Wolff (H&W) shipyards in Northern Ireland has been transformational for the group, and with a carefully planned growth strategy, there is a clear route to cash breakeven in the short term. Over the medium to long term, these facilities could support a c£400m revenue business. With the company trading at a c30% discount to its H1/20A book value and c65% to its Adj NAV, we initiate with a Buy recommendation.
Anglo Asian Mining is an AIM listed precious and base metals producer running flagship Gedabek operations in western Azerbaijan which include three producing mines and processing facilities. The Company targets 75-80koz GEOs in 2020 with low cost operations providing capital for organic growth opportunities within the highly prospective +1,000km2 land package, with the potential for additional attractive targets outside Azerbaijan as well as 25% of FCF dividend programme.
Companies: Anglo Asian Mining
Falcon is uniquely placed in the current challenging commodity price environment with its strong cash position (US$11.5m at 31 March 2020), fully funded drilling programme and high quality assets. Following the farm down of a 7.5% participating interest to partner Origin Energy in return for an A$150.5m increase in the gross cap carry, we believe Falcon is fully funded through one of the greatest periods of uncertainty the oil and gas industry has ever faced. At a time when many in the industry fight for their very survival, we believe Falcon has managed to secure a fantastic deal for shareholders, which should see the Company through to the potential monetisation of its 22.5% participating interest. We maintain our price target at 40p, a 426% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas
Sylvania's share price has fallen 53% since its peaked on the 21st Feb, as the global economy hit the brakes. The short term demand outlook for PGMs is miserable, with supply chains breaking down as both luxury goods and car sales sales collapse.
Companies: Sylvania Platinum
Companies: Hurricane Energy
Savannah Energy is an AIM-listed E&P company with two sets of assets: (i) in-production gas and oil fields and a regional monopoly gas distributon network in South East Nigeria (well away from the risky Delta area); and (ii) licenses over 50% of a prolific oil basin in Niger.
Companies: Savannah Energy
Gold – Robust pricing, improved returns and increased interest
The robust gold price, currently sitting comfortably above $1,700/oz, has been one of the bright spots of the current COVID crisis, although the roots of the price increase were seen well before from mid-2019 on geopolitical and trade concerns. Gold mining companies have been reaping the rewards of the higher price with forecast profits and cash expected to grow significantly. The increase in gold price has been reflected by share price appreciation for most of the gold-mining sector; gold miners, those companies developing gold projects and even gold explorers have all seen an uptick in share prices. Those companies in production should see considerably higher profits and we expect the level of dividends back to shareholders to rise.
The rate of M&A in the sector might also increase, as in previous high price periods, with some companies assuming that these prices can be sustained – however, they will have to be careful as a rash of M&A in previous cycles has shown that there may be a price to pay later on and the industry can ill afford a return to eye-wateringly large write-downs on the other side of this cycle. Gold miners will also have to behave prudently as there will, of course, be a temptation for higher throughput and production, regardless of grade, to generate more cash – a decreasing profit margin perhaps, but a lengthening mine life; as in everything there is a balance to be made to ensure sensible returns.
We are most heartened by a renewed interest in the previously (seemingly) ignored junior explorers which we think is a theme that will develop and continue.
Companies: AURA CMCL CNG GDP JLP ORR
Shearwater sells resilience and today's trading update shows us how resilient demand has been for its products and services. The Group has swung to EBITDA profitability and cash flow is well ahead of expectations. The macro themes of cyber security and remote working are supportive of robust demand levels going forward. We are maintaining our forecasts. Buy.
Companies: Shearwater Group
Another impressive year for Iofina, which has reporting a second consecutive year of record iodine production and EBITDA. It also launched its new CDB extraction division, reduced debt through a successful fundraise and delivered the next phase of expansion in its core iodine business with the start-up of IO#8 on time and within budget. Weak oil prices have affected brine water supplies to this plant, causing it to be idled. However, management is optimistic IO#8 will restart in H2 as oil prices recover. We are reinstating estimates that assume a gradual restart from August, and have set a new DCF-based price target of 32p/sh, down from 35p previously.
An independent resource audit by Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA) has significantly increased the resources at the Mako gas field following the JV's highly successful drilling campaign in Q4/19. GCA have increased the 2C gross recoverable dry gas volumes when compared to its previous resource assessment (in January 2019) by 79% to 495Bcf, slightly ahead of the internal 493Bcf assessment. In the upside case, the 3C resources have increased by 108% to 817Bcf, significantly higher than the 3C internal resource estimate of 666Bcf. Following the GCA resource upgrade, the Mako field has been proven to be one of the largest gas fields ever discovered in the West Natuna Basin and is believed to be the largest undeveloped resource in the region. Located close to existing infrastructure and well established markets, we believe Mako is an attractive proposition, which we currently value at US$18.3m or 3.2p using a US$6/mcf long term gas price.
Companies: Empyrean Energy
April 2020 production payment
Companies: Gulf Keystone Petroleum
Petropavlovsk PLC (LSE: POG) have released their FY2019 results and Q1 trading update this morning. The company had already released production numbers for last year. Overall the numbers reflected a strong operational performance although various financial/other parameters thwarted positive changes below the EBITDA line. Conversely net cash from operations reduced by 43% due to lower cash from prepayment as part of the group’s forward sale facility with the banks, yet net debt came down to $561m. . We show the key figures in Table 1.
An independent resource audit by Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA) has significantly increased the resources at the Mako gas field following the JV's highly successful drilling campaign in Q4/19. GCA have increased the 2C gross recoverable dry gas volumes when compared to its previous resource assessment (in January 2019) by 79% to 495Bcf, slightly ahead of the internal 493Bcf assessment. In the upside case, the 3C resources have increased by 108% to 817Bcf, significantly higher than the 3C internal resource estimate of 666Bcf. Following the GCA resource upgrade, the Mako field has been proven to be one of the largest gas fields ever discovered in the West Natuna Basin and is believed to be the largest undeveloped resource in the region. Located close to existing infrastructure and well established markets, we believe Mako is an attractive proposition, which we conservatively value at US$18.3m (risked) or 3.2p using a US$6/mcf long term gas price, unrisked our valuation of Mako increases to US$25.2m or 4.3p per share. We value Empyrean as a whole at 19.0p per share a 280% premium to the share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Valuation – We have updated our Mako model, with gas first in 2023 (previously 2022). Using a long term gas price of US$6/mcf, and a 10% discount factor we value the 42.1Bcf of net 2C resources at US$18.3m (risked) or 3.2p per share. We include a 30% risking to account for any potential commercial risks (including political and fiscal changes), cost risks (associated with potential development cost variations) and timing risks (to allow for any project delays). Unrisked our valuation increases to US$24.7m or 4.3p per share.
A key sensitivity to our valuation is the gas price, at US$8/mcf our valuation of Mako increases to US$31.0m or 5.3p per share (risked), US$44.3m or 7.6p per share (unrisked) and at US$10/mcf our valuation increases to US$40.8m or 7.0p per share (risked), US$58.4m or 10p per share (unrisked).
Combined, we value Empyrean's portfolio at 19p per share, a 280% premium to the share price.
Oil posted its biggest monthly advance on record, just a few weeks after prices made a dramatic plunge below zero. Crude surged about 88% in May, with US futures on Friday rising above $35 a barrel for the first time since March, driven by massive supply curbs by producers across the world. Still, prices are well below levels at the start of the year, and demand that was crushed by the coronavirus crisis may need to show a sustained improvement for the rally to extend further.
For now, the outlook for consumption looks bleak, though it is on the mend. While virus-related lockdowns are easing, demand is not yet roaring back in the US Fuel sales that were clobbered in European nations such as Spain and Italy will take time to recover. China is a bright spot, but the rest of Asia is still struggling.
The number of rigs drilling for oil in the US fell for the eleventh week, stemming the massive glut of crude that flooded the market. Yet there is a risk that oil's advance could tempt producers to turn on their taps again.
US crude futures fluctuated Friday, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell defended aggressive action to shield the economy as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Prices surged at the close, with West Texas Intermediate oil settling 5.3% higher at $35.49 a barrel, after falling as much as 4% earlier in the day. Futures posted the biggest monthly jump in data going back to 1983.
Brent crude for July, which expires Friday, rose 4 cents to $35.33, closing below WTI for the first time since 2016. The global benchmark has rallied almost 40% this month. The more active August contract rose 5% to settle at $37.84.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is poised to sign a measure that would punish Chinese officials for imprisoning more than one million Muslims in internment camps, as he looks to rebuke Beijing over its crackdown in Hong Kong and its response to the coronavirus. He has also discussed putting targeted sanctions and trade measures on China's financial sector.
More on the oil market:
As the fallout from crude's historic plunge continues, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have both opened probes into the $4.64 billion United States Oil Fund ETF.
As China's demand recovery outpaces the rest of Asia, falling fuel exports from the refining giant are providing a much-needed buffer for other processors in the region still grappling with lowered consumption and poor margins.
An early look at Saudi Arabia's crude exports for May shows that historic production cuts have done little to squelch the kingdom's flood of oil to China, which is just getting back on its feet from the coronavirus.
Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
2019 was a significant year for United Oil & Gas, dominated by the acquisition of Rockhopper Egypt and its 22% working interest in the Abu Sennan concession. The acquisition has transformed United into a full-cycle E&P with c1,760boepd of production. With low operating costs (cUS$6.5/bbl) and drilling costs, Abu Sennan remains cash flow positive with oil prices below US$20/bbl. Additional downside protection comes from the Company's pre-payment facility with BP, effectively hedging 6,600bbls per month at US$60/bbl until September 2022 and its long-term fixed gas contracts, insulating 20% of United's production from the current price volatility. We update our model, accounting for slightly higher operating costs, setting our price target at 6.5p a 242% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: United Oil & Gas