Updated commissioning plans for the Uis tin mine in Namibia
AfriTin is developing the Uis tin mine in Namibia. Despite some minor delays in commissioning, not helped by Covid restrictions, the team are making good progress to bring the plant, as initially envisaged, into full production (0.8kt/a tin concentrate). Several enhancements can be implemented that will add further value to the Phase 1 plant making it a standalone profit centre: plant expansion, by-product lithium concentrate production and measures to improve head grade. The plant also acts as an excellent pilot and testbed for the larger, full-scale plant planned by AfriTin. The large resource base in and around Uis will support a considerably larger operation as shown by the September 2019 JORC resource estimate. We see fair value in AfriTin at 11.1p/sh.
Companies: Afritin Mining
AfriTin (ATM LN) –– Resumption of mining at Uis | European Metal Holdings (EMH LN) –Preliminary Mining Permit for eastern part of Cinovec | Trans Siberian Gold (TSG LN) – Asacha resource update potentially extends the life of mine to 2027 from 2024
Companies: ATM EMH TSG
Strategic Update and commissioning review at the Uis tin mine in Namibia
AfriTin today release an update on the commissioning of the Uis tin mine project in Namibia. Covid restrictions have had an effect on the smooth development of the mine to reach full capacity, despite there being no cases of Covid reported, but operations are now back underway and a third shipment of tin concentrate has been sent to the port (75t YTD). The company is now debottlenecking the plant and planning for the final full expansion. AfriTin outlines several key developments it can see to increase production and improve economics at the Phase 1 plant (currently 800t tin concentrate per year), which, if enacted, would make for a larger, profitable and standalone plant. All of this work effectively de-risks the development of the ultimate Phase 2 plant envisioned (5,000t of tin concentrate per year). As AfriTin has stated – the potential scale at Uis is not being held back by any lack of resource in the area after it has defined an appreciable, globally significant resource of tin, from only 2 of the many pegmatites exposed in the licence. After today's release it is appropriate to consider in full the detailed contents of the release and to reassess our fair value.
Anglo American (AAL LN) – ACP plant ramping back up | AfriTin (ATM LN) – Signs £2.05 million Unsecured Loan Note Facility with high-net-worth investor in South Africa | Erris Resources (ERIS LN) – Raised £0.33m to advance Scottish exploration | Kazatomprom (KAP LI) – Uranium concentrate supply agreement signed with Dioxitek in Argentina | Power Metals* (POW LN) – Expansion of Australian gold exploration area | Vast Resources* (VAST LN) – Baita Plai polymetallic project update
Companies: AAL ATM ERIS POW VAST
AfriTin today announces it has secured £2.05m in a new loan note facility to strengthen its balance sheet and cash position as its flagship project, the Uis tin mine in Namibia, continues to ramp-up. Amongst other benefits the loan note facility is intended to alleviate stresses caused by potential supply chain and/or product shipment disruptions beyond the company's control.
AfriTin (ATM) – Corporate – Uis tin mine update; second consignment of tin concentrate shipped
Market Cap £18m Share Price 2.8p
AfriTin today provides an update on progress at its Uis tin mine in Namibia with a second consignment of tin concentrate (20t) sent to Thailand. The first batch (6t) has been received by the smelter in Thailand and revenues paid to AfriTin – a major milestone in any new mining company's history.
Inspecs, a UK designer, manufacturer and distributor of eyewear frames to global retail chains announces its intention to IPO onto AIM raising £94m with a market cap of £138m. Admission expected 27th February. FY Dec 2018 numbers show revenue of $57m and underlying EBITDA of $11m
Companies: ATM GTLY CRV ITM BPM TYMN WRES TGP CGNR TIDE
AfriTin Mining* (ATM LN) –– Issue of £3.8m of convertible loan notes as Uis ramps up tin concentrate production | Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) – Q3/19 corporate and operational highlights | Asiamet Resources (ARS LN) – Near term exploration targets | Aura Energy Limited* (AURA LN) – Extraordinary General Meeting | Keras Resources* (KRS LN) – Distribution of Calidus Shares | Thor Mining (THR LN) – Drilling results from Kapunda
Companies: ATM ALS ARS AURA KRS THR
The Uis tin mine in Namibia is moving through the commissioning phase of its journey – all within two years of the IPO – a tremendous achievement. After commissioning and streamlining the tin circuit, AfriTin will turn attention to its tantalum by-product and a feasibility study into an expansion of production – potentially up to 5kt/yr of tin concentrate, making it a tin producer of global significance. A robust medium-term outlook for tin and the potential to produce multiple by-products (lithium, muscovite mica, beryl etc) through an enlarged plant (or series of plants) at Uis are the prizes for investors. We see fair value at 7.0p, with upside in the tin price, by-product production and options on expansion going forward.
AfriTin (ATM) – Corporate – Maiden JORC resource for Uis
Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – Kun Manie project update | AfriTin Mining* (ATM LN) – Maiden JORC resource at Uis tin mine | Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) – Annual results for year to 30th June | Phoenix Copper* - formerly Phoenix Global Mining (PXC LN) – Interim results and project update for Empire oxide project | Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – £5m fund-raising | Solgold* (SOLG LN) – Solgold helicopter accident in Ecuador kills two
Companies: AMC ATM PDL SAV SOLG
AfriTin (ATM) – Corporate – First tin concentrate production and offtake
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Robust, cash-generative production from mining waste
Jubilee operates several chrome-Platinum Group Metal (PGM) operations in South Africa and is constructing a zinc-lead (vanadium) plant at Kabwe in Zambia after already commissioning the copper and cobalt circuits (the ‘Sable' refinery). The company has a growth pipeline identified and significant opportunities to find new projects in Africa (or globally); more specifically, Jubilee announced that it is looking to increase its copper (cobalt) production in Zambia aggressively to make full use of the Sable Refinery. Jubilee also owns the Tjate PGM project in South Africa, which is currently on hold. The company model is to treat its own waste materials and to supplement these with third party ores and wastes where possible. This year has been nothing if not eventful for Jubilee, but further progress and material catalysts are expected over the course of 2020. Jubilee has a high-margin business with cash on hand, and we see plenty of opportunities for Jubilee to capitalise on its robust business model through the global Covid-19 crisis and beyond. We initiate with a fair value of 11.2p/sh
Companies: Jubilee Platinum
A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
Companies: Hurricane Energy
U.S. futures and European stocks dropped on Friday as investors mulled a reported conflict among policy makers over a stimulus package for the single-currency region, as well as political upheaval in France.
The Stoxx 600 Index fell after Bloomberg News reported the European Central Bank is facing a potential rift over how much their emergency bond-purchase program should stay weighted toward weaker countries such as Italy. The euro fluctuated following French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to name a new prime minister after asking his government to resign. Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc slumped after the British jet-engine maker said its exploring options to raise funds to strengthen its balance sheet.
The dollar was slightly down, posting its first weekly drop in a month, while American cash equity and bond markets were shut for Independence Day. President Donald Trump will attend an early July 4 celebration at Mount Rushmore with thousands of guests who won't be required to wear masks, while his U.K. counterpart Boris Johnson urged Britons to act responsibly as pubs prepare to re-open and the government lifts quarantine rules on travel for 60 countries.
The friction at the ECB highlights the risk to markets should promised stimulus measures fall short. Investors continue to weigh policy support and upbeat economic data against relentless new outbreaks of the virus. U.S payrolls figures Thursday fuelled optimism of a V-shaped recovery in the world's biggest economy, even as Florida reported that infections and hospitalizations jumped the most yet, and Houston had a surge in intensive-care patients. Emerging-market stocks posted the biggest weekly gain in a month.
Elsewhere, crude oil dipped but remained on track for a weekly gain.
Companies: TGL JSE IAE ADME BP/ DGOC ENOG NTQ NTOG PMO RBD ROSE RDSA UKOG TRIN
Caledonia's Q2 2020 production from its 64% owned Blanket mine in Zimbabwe was 13.5koz gold. This was an increase over the same period last year of 6.2%, leaving Caledonia with a first half production of 27.7koz – well ahead of this time last year (24.7koz) and on track to meet its 2020 full year guidance of 53-56koz (WHI etc. 55.5koz).
Spectra Systems Corporation is a provider of machine-readable high-speed banknote authentication, brand protection technologies and gaming security software. The company has announced that it has executed a new contract with a major world central bank to ‘enhance existing authentication sensors to detect a unique type of counterfeit notes'.
Companies: Spectra Systems Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Com Shs Npv
Stable platform agreement approved by creditors
Companies: Premier Oil
Over the last 18 months, Powerhouse has cemented its relationship with Peel Environmental, which is targeting the development of at least 30 distributed modular generation (DMG) plants across the UK. Each of these will potentially generate £0.5m in annual licence fees for Powerhouse. This roll-out is conditional on shareholders approving the proposed acquisition of former development partner Waste2Tricity (W2T) at the general meeting on 14 July
Companies: Powerhouse Energy Group
InfraStrata has raised £9m in gross proceeds via a share placing (subject to the approval of shareholders), which will be used to provide growth capital to execute on the company's pipeline. The proceeds will also be used to repay high-cost short-term debt (leaving the group with a c£4.5m net cash position). Given the significant earnings potential of H&W, along with that of the group's other infrastructure assets as they mature, we consider the company to be significantly undervalued and reaffirm our Buy recommendation.
PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price £0.45: 1Q20 results/Bretaña expected to restart in July – 1Q20 financials are in line with expectations and 1Q20 production had been reported previously. At the end of 1Q20, current trade and other payables had been reduced to ~US$45 mm compared to ~US$55 mm at YE19. Most importantly. PetroTal continues to expect the Bretaña field to be re-opened this month. The contingent liability with Petroperu is estimated at US$25 mm at the current oil price and the company has entered into a financial swap for 0.46 mmbbl of oil with an ICE Brent reference price of US $40.58/bbl to cover the upcoming sale by Petroperu at the Bayovar port. This is a recovery story that we continue to like. It offers a combination of value, production and cash flow growth and reserves upside. We anticipate that the imminent reopening of the field with be an important catalyst to the share price.
i3 Energy (I3E LN): Reveals takeover target in Canada | Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Production update | Aker BB (AKERBP NO): 2Q20 update in Norway | Energy (RRE LN): Recommended offer by Viaro Energy | Spirit Energy: Dry hole in Norway | Enwell Energy (ENW LN): Ukraine update | JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN): 2Q20 update in Ukraine and Russia | Pharos Energy (PHAR LN): Operating update in Egypt and Vietnam | Sound Energy (SOU LN)C: Terms of Moroccan licence renegotiated | Tethys Oil (TETY SS): June production in Oman | Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN): Gas sales contract with ENEO in Cameroon terminated
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
14/07/2020: Aker BP (AKERBP NO) – 2Q20 results
15/07/2020: Premier Oil (PMO LN) – 1H20 update
13-17/07/2020: GeoPark (GPRK US) – 2Q20 update
Companies: I3E MAHAA JKX PHAR EQNR AKERBP ENI HUR PTAL REP RRE SOU TPL VOG OMV
• 1Q20 financials are in line with expectations and 1Q20 production had been reported previously.
• At the end of 1Q20, current trade and other payables had been reduced to ~US$45 mm compared to ~US$55 mm at YE19.
• Most importantly, PetroTal continues to expect the Bretaña field to be re-opened this month.
• The contingent liability with Petroperu is estimated at US$25 mm at the current oil price and the company has entered into a financial swap for 0.46 mmbbl of oil with an ICE Brent reference price of US $40.58/bbl to cover the upcoming sale by Petroperu at the Bayovar port.
Recovery, value and cashflow
PetroTal is a recovery story that we continue to like. It offers a combination of value, production and cash flow growth and reserves upside. PetroTal’s shares continue to trade at around one quarter of our Core NAV of £0.47 per share and at less than half of the company’s value based on its 2P reserves only (2P NAV of £0.28 per share). This reflects Brent price assumptions in line with what BP, Shell and ENI are using. This is important because the commodity prices assumptions of the Majors have often been more conservative than those used by smaller companies that could see PetroTal as an acquisition target. On flat production, PetroTal’s share price implies EV/DACF multiples of 1.0x in 2021 turning negative in 2022. In 2021, we forecast PetroTal generates ~US$90 mm cash flow with ~US$35 mm cash capex (incl. servicing the payables). Our target price of £0.45 per share (~our Core NAV) represents 4.5x the current share price.
Looking beyond the restart of the field
We anticipate that the imminent reopening of the field will be an important catalyst to the share price with 4Q20 production expected to be over 12 mbbl/d. This is however just a first step and there are multiple areas of additional value creation. (1) The story would strongly benefit from a further increase in oil prices. At US$50/bbl for Brent, the Petroperu US$25 mm contingent liability would be reduced to
The market should be in no doubt that Pure Gold will deliver first gold before the end of the year before ramping up to 66koz in 2021 through to 125koz in 2025 (the company is already looking at ways it can accelerate the ramp up). All critical path items are on track with long lead equipment on order, all license applications expected to be approved by Q2, and mine sequencing being planned. Management are already planning on how they might ramp up quicker, improving flexibility in the system with a new decline and tweaking metallurgical recoveries. Perhaps most importantly they are growing their knowledge of the geology with the team putting together a drill programme to start next year once in production. This will target extensions to the 1Moz, 9g/t reserve (will be the 17th highest grade mine in the world when in production) down dip, at satellite deposits and, most excitingly, at Zone 8 where there is already a 0.5Mt resource grading 21g/t.
Companies: Pure Gold Mining
AFC Energy is a global leader in the fuel cell sector. It has a proven fuel cell technology which it is commercialising through its H-Power™ product, an off-grid electric vehicle charging system which is run on hydrogen and produces no emissions. The company's core fuel cell technology is a liquid alkaline fuel cell called HydroX-Cell(L)™. The company is also developing a solid alkaline fuel cell called HydroX-Cell(S)™ , the critical component of which is a is a solid electrolyte which upon validation will be marketed under the AlkaMem™ trademark. We expect the AlkaMem™ product to have multiple electro-chemical applications outside of fuel cells. The purpose of this note is to compare AFC Energy's products, markets and business strategy against its listed peers Ceres Power and ITM Power. The note also assesses the state and outlook of the hydrogen market in addition to the proton exchange membrane market, which is relevant for AFC Energy's AlkaMem™ product. As a reminder, we believe AFC Energy has a fair value of 27p/sh.
Companies: AFC AFC AFC
In this note, we analyze the indebtedness of 35 international E&Ps publicly listed in the UK, Canada, Norway, Sweden and the USA. For each company, we look at (1) cash position, (2) level and nature of debt (including covenants), (3) debt service and principal repayment framework and (4) Brent price required from April to YE20 to meet all the obligations and keep cash positions intact. We also estimate YE20 cash if Brent were to average US$20/bbl from April to YE20. While the oil demand and oil price collapse are of unprecedented historical proportions and the opportunities to cut costs much more limited than in 2014, most companies (with a few exceptions) entered the crisis in much better position than six years ago, with stronger balance sheets and often already extended debt maturities. In addition, this time around, many E&Ps have already been deleveraging for 1-2 years and are not caught in the middle of large developments that cannot be halted. The previous crisis also showed that debt providers could relax debt covenants for a certain period as long as interest and principal repayment obligations were met. This implies that as long as operations are not interrupted and counterparties keep paying their bills (Kurdistan), the storm can be weathered by most for a few quarters.
With (1) Brent price of about US$50/bbl in 1Q20, (2) reduced capex programmes, (3) material hedging programmes covering a large proportion of FY20 production at higher prices and (4) limited principal repayments in 2020, we find that most companies can meet all their costs and obligations in 2020 at Brent prices below US$40/bbl and often below US$35/bbl) from April until YE20 and keep their cash intact, allowing them to remain solvent at much lower prices for some time. In particular, Maha Energy and SDX Energy are cash neutral at about US$20/bbl. When factoring the divestment of Uganda, Tullow needs only US$9/bbl to maintain its YE20 cash equal to YE19. Canacol Energy, Diversified Gas and Oil, Independent Oil & Gas, Orca Exploration, Serica Energy and Wentworth Resources are gas stories not really exposed to oil prices and Africa Oil has hedged 95% of its FY20 production at over US$65/bbl.
Companies: AKERBP AOI CNE CNE DGOC EGY ENOG ENQ GENL GKP GPRK GTE HUR IOG JSE KOS LUPE MAHAA OKEA ORC.B PEN PHAR PMO PTAL PXT RRE SDX SEPL TETY TGL TLW TXP WRL
Jubilee Metals (JLP) – Corporate – Large copper tailings project in Zambia – staged expansion for Sable
Market Cap £82m Share Price 3.8p
Jubilee announced yesterday that it had secured a JV with a private company - Star Tanganika – for the rights over a copper project at Ndola in Zambia. The purchase price was $5m ($0.6m in cash the rest in shares in Jubilee) which will be used to advance a further potential copper tailings project held by the owners of Tanganika. Jubilee will provide all of the operating and capital funding for the first phase project and will receive 75% of the project earnings until all capital is recovered dropping to 60% after that – Jubilee will also have first right of refusal over the copper-bearing concentrates produced on 3rd party offtake terms.
Despite the ongoing economic headwinds, 2020 has already been a significant year for United, with the 2019-20 infill-drilling campaign at Abu Sennan exceeding expectations and delivering significant reserve and production additions. Since the Abu Sennan acquisition was announced in July 2019, net production has nearly tripled from 1,100boepd to 3,100boepd, following successful wells at ASH-2 and El Salmiya-5 and the onset of gas production from the Al Jahraa field. We value United's portfolio (minus Jamaica) at US$91.3m, c4.5x its current market cap. Unrisked, we value United's entire portfolio at US$321.7m (including Jamaica) or 34.9p per share, >16x United's current market cap. We set our target price in line with our risked valuation (minus Jamaica) at 9.5p, a 280% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: United Oil & Gas