LIBERUM: Commodity redEYE: China's coal swap: dig less, import more

LIBERUM: Restocking Indicator back to BUY: Anglo American preferred play

SP Angel Morning View: Gold prices cool from record highs as US manufacturing data strengthens dollar

SP Angel Morning View: Gold prices soar over $2,200/oz as Fed Chair Powell reiterates rate cuts this year

SP Angel Morning View: US DLA to compete with China SRB on refilling stockpiles of cobalt and critical metals

SP Angel Morning View: Metals pause as China breaks for new year and investors eye delays to US rate cuts

Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ LN) – £30m equity raise to accelerate development at Nalunaq and expand exploration Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – Bluejay appoint new senior geologist as management cut £1.3mpa of payroll costs Glencore (GLEN LN) – Koniambo nickel to go on care and maintenance Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Additional funding for exploration in Zambia & Nevada

SP Angel Morning View: Fed reiterates dovish outlook but not expecting first rate cut in March

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) – Drilling results from Inishowen, Donegal Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – Orion convertible loan refinancing completed Ferr-Alloy Resources (FAR LN) – Revised Balasausqandiq Vanadium Project FS timing Galileo Resources (GLR LN) – Additional targets identified in the Kalahari Copperbelt, Botswana Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) – Production volumes hold up at Letšeng while average prices come under pressure Glencore (GLEN LN) – Stronger H2 production volumes across most commo

LIBERUM: Commodity redEYE: China’s COP28 chat vs. facts

LIBERUM: Restocking Indicator still says BUY: Equities lift too

SP Angel Morning View: Base Metals climb on reports of US$157bn construction stimulus in China

Glencore goes one up (1-0) vs. Teck Resources

Finally, Glencore has managed to acquire Teck Resources’ met coal assets. This means that half of its initial Teck ambition has been accomplished. While there are some questions with respect to the way forward and its associated timelines, the markets seem to be on board with the firm’s plans. Overall, our positive stock recommendation is reiterated, underpinned by the intact long-term re-rating prospects for a potentially strong non-fossil/metals asset portfolio.

Is Glencore again going for Teck Resources?

According to the WSJ, Glencore is close to acquiring Teck Resources’ met coal assets. While there has been no official confirmation as yet, this could be a good move if it also culminates in the acquisition of Teck’s non-fossil assets. This is possibly a reflection of Teck’s limited options at present and Glencore finally gaining the upper hand. Overall, Glencore’s attractiveness as our preferred diversified miner is reiterated.

LIBERUM: Restocking Indicator stays on BUY: Inventories tight, consumption robust

SP Angel Morning View: Gold prices hit >$2,010/oz as Israel conflict shows escalation potential

LIBERUM: Commodity snapSHOT: Fed's cycle peak vs. Commodity World

Renold - Strong end to FY24: EPS up 11%. Robust FY25: EPS up 27.6%

The FY24 year-end update is very upbeat signalling trading being materially ahead of expectations, with a better-than-expected profit out turn and stronger cash generation. It continues to strengthen margins through efficiencies and investment in modern equipment. The order book remains close to record levels providing a robust view of future forecasts. In FY24E we upgrade EPS by 11% and in FY25E a significant upgrade of 27.6%. It looks capable of declaring a dividend in FY25 as well as manageme

Morning Note – 16 April 2024

Billington Holdings - Record result boosts dividend; forecasts upgraded

FY23 results show very strong growth over FY22, driven by strong Structural Steel activity, with results slightly ahead of upgraded profit expectations, while stronger than expected cash flow resulted in an unexpectedly generous dividend of 33p (offering a FY23 yield of 7.0%). The group now has net cash of £22.1m and is debt free and is therefore in a strong position for potential M&A activity. Following the recent £90m of new orders to increase the order book to record levels we conservatively

Q1 Operating Results

Another Good Year of Diversified Growth with More to Come in 2024 CCapital have released their Q1 operating results. Overall, revenue has come in slightly lower than expected at $80.2m vs TamE of $85.9m but is largely tracking in line with our FY24 annual estimate and we note the company has maintained guidance. Drilling revenue for this quarter was impacted by a fall in utilisaztion rates as well as general remobilisation geographically but we expect a strong recovery throughout the year as k

Plant Health Care - China distribution with AMVAC

Plant Health Care announced it has signed a distribution agreement with AMVAC, an American Vanguard Company, to support commercialisation of novel fertiliser products incorporating Plant Health Care's Harpinαβ in China starting in 2024. The novel product combines Harpinαβ technology with an AMVAC fertiliser and is expected to help growers improve crop quality and yield as part of an integrated and environmentally responsible crop production programme. AMVAC continues to evaluate Plant Health Car

Morning Note – 15 April 2024

Severfield - Multiple positives should excite investors

Severfield’s trading update indicates that FY23 results are expected to slightly exceed market expectations and the company ends the year with a record UK and Europe order book. Furthermore, with a positive trading outlook and net debt coming in lower than expected, Severfield has announced a £10m share buyback, highlighting the cash-generative nature of the company and management’s confidence in its position. The stock trades on an FY25 P/E of less than 6x and yields 7%, which we believe appear

discoverIE - Back to organic growth

discoverIE’s March year-end update confirms a strong operational performance in challenging markets. Following two years when sales increased by +48%, FY 2024 Group sales were +1% ahead of 2023 at CER (reported -3%) driven by a +2% contribution from acquisitions and organic -1%. As expected, organic growth returned in the later part of the year (Q4 +2%, +11% sequentially) and the order book has reverted to normalised levels of c.4.5 months’ sales, which – combined with a continuing strong pipeli

Warns on brine supply costs

SP Angel . Morning View . Copper prices hold higher as China processing fees fall below $0/t amid low feedstock availability

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: Targeted acquisition strategy aids growth path

Acquisitions have been an important element of Severfield management’s growth strategy, with the aim of adding new products, sectors and regions to what we have identified as exciting long-term organic opportunities. In this Spotlight report, we focus on the group’s targeted M&A approach, highlighting three significant deals.

LIBERUM: Severfield: Erratum: Better EPS and cashflow, and buyback

Invinity Energy Systems - Update on Strategic Investment

Invinity’s update on discussions with strategic investors reveals interest from multiple parties. While this has slightly delayed finalising an agreement it increases the potential for a better outcome. Although details are unknown at this stage, we think there is enough in the statement to be comfortable that any agreements will be consistent with the company’s strategy of growing market share in core markets and using a licencing and royalty model in other markets.

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: Step change in European and Indian outlook

Severfield’s full-year results to March will be ‘slightly above’ the Board’s expectations, according to today’s trading update, with net debt significantly better. We maintain our PBT estimates for both forecast years, which are ahead of consensus, but reduce our net debt for FY24E. Record orders were boosted by the steel specialist’s European operations, after last year’s Voortman acquisition, while the Indian JV has seen ‘another step up in profitability’. The group has also launched its first

Clean and competitive fertiliser