Sector Note - finnCap Industrial Technology quarterly sector note - Q1 2020 (Issue 16)
Torquing points: It is impossible not to discuss the current pandemic and its effects on the industrial technology sectors. It often appears the share price reactions have been indiscriminate. Without doubt Q2 will experience a very severe contraction in the UK and across Europe and the US. It really is a perfect storm: lockdown will affect order flow and also the flow of raw material inputs and distribution of finished goods. Investors must now look for those who will prevail. The pandemic, first in China and now worldwide, has placed a focus on companies’ supply chains. Companies that have demonstrated a diverse and robust supply chain will inevitably be better placed to be flexible and responsive to changing geographic disruption. In an increasingly risk-averse market, businesses with net cash or fluid working capital positions will be more robust. Companies must now focus on cash generation and effective mitigating actions such as salary furloughs and dividend cuts. Indeed, a growing number of companies have already suspended their dividend payment.
AVG ALU CAR FLO GHH HDD RNO RBN SOLI SOM SCE TRT TRI NXR LPA XSG TWD
01 Apr 20
Trading in-line with full year expectations
First half results leave the group well placed to meet full year expectations. The statement highlights good progress in integrating Booth Industries and Energy Steel, significant new business wins that support Group results and provide good longer–term visibility, and a limited P/L impact from the first time adoption of IFRS16. Overall management remain optimistic about future prospects and the realisation of value consistent with the Group’s PIE (‘Pinpoint, Invest, Exit’) strategy. Whilst forecast EPS remains unchanged, net debt increases from £2m (FY2019) to £16.6m (FY2020E) due to acquisitions and injection of working capital as expected, and £8.9mE for IFRS16.
26 Feb 20
Interim results – in line with expectations
Interim results show good underlying progress in the period and signal that the group is on track for full-year expectations, with only a limited risk currently seen from coronavirus. We make only minor changes to forecasts associated with the adoption of IFRS16, which leaves EPS unchanged. We slightly increase our price target from 300p to 315p, based on a targeted 2021 P/E of 15.5x and EV/EBITDA of 7.8x (pre-IFRS16 basis). The shares have seen a decent run recently, placing them fairly close to our price target. Recent acquisitions mean EPS-based targets tend to undervalue the group with potential for either further acquisitive activity or unlocking value through disposals acting as a share price catalyst.
26 Feb 20
In-line trading update
Avingtrans has issued a trading update confirming that the group has continued to perform well in H1 FY2020E and is trading in-line with market expectations. The order and prospect pipeline are noted as being robust and the recent acquisitions of both Booth Industries and Energy Steel are integrating well and recovering from the distressed positions that they were in at the time of their purchase in June 2019. We make no changes to our estimates ahead of the interim results which will be published on 26th February.
23 Jan 20
Small Cap Feast
Calisen Group. Potential Intention to Float. Owner and manager of essential energy infrastructure assets . Consolidated FY Dec 18 revenue £162.1m and operating profit £25.4m. Raising up to £300m in primary plus partial vendor sale. The Global Sustainable Farmland Income Trust will invest in a diversified portfolio of operational farmland assets located in major agricultural markets including the United States, Europe, New Zealand, Australia and certain countries within Latin and South America. Raising up to $300m. Due 28 February. Investment firm Nippon Active Value fund is seeking to raise up to £200m at an issue price of 100p per share via an IPO. The company aims to invest in a portfolio of quoted Japanese stocks with market capitalisations of up to $1bn. First day of dealings expected early February.
AVG VRP TERN HMI QTX IND DXRX ERGO FARN AUG
13 Jan 20
Sector Note -
Election implications for the Industrial sector: The Conservative Party’s now stable working majority provides clarity, with the withdrawal agreement expected to be rapidly enacted. Status quo in most policy areas, except a stark change from a promised fiscal stimulus through higher spending on public services and investment programmes, which could kick-start activity. We see a recovery in consumer confidence boosting activity in the DIY and housing sectors, and greater infrastructure expenditure will also boost a number of construction-related industrials. While the sector participates in a Boris Bounce, we regard the recent strength of sterling cautiously, affecting international competitiveness and reducing the translation of overseas earnings, although it helps to reduce the price of imported raw materials. The renewed threat of a no deal Brexit has resulted in sterling giving up much of its gains.
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18 Dec 19
Fiat Chrysler/Peugeot PSA in talks; Airbus lowers 2019 delivery outlook but receives large order; lowered guidance from GM, Cummins, Komatsu, IPG Photonics
Smurfit Kappa (SKG LN, £6.0bn) Q3 19 trading statement (30/09) reports 9m rev. growth +3% and EBITDA growth +11% with 140bps increase in EBITDA margin to 18.3% | Avingtrans (AVG LN, £78m) secures £7.2m govt contract for safety doors within its Booth Industries subsidiary
Avingtrans Smurfit Kappa Group
31 Oct 19
Booth secures large Government contract
Avingtrans has announced that its subsidiary Booth Industries has secured a new £7.2m Government contract for safety doors. This brings the total value of contracts secured by Booth since the acquisition of its assets in June 2019 to over £12m, spread over the next two years. This new contract provides a welcomed underpin to our existing estimates for the turnaround at Booth and we therefore make no change to estimates.
30 Oct 19
Small Cap Feast
African Export-Import Bank a supranational financial institution whose purpose is to facilitate, promote and expand intra- and extra- African trade, of its potential intention to publish a registration document, the Bank hereby confirms its intention to proceed with an Initial Public Offering. The GDRs are expected to be admitted to the standard listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the Main Market of the LSE. DNEG Limited intends to apply for admission of its Shares to the premium listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities. The Offer will be comprised of new Shares to be issued by the Company (to raise expected gross proceeds of £150m). Admission is expected to take place in November 2019.
AVG SAR REDD HSP KEFI PTR SNX IHC BGO TERN
30 Oct 19
FY results slightly ahead, good margin gains achieved
Full-year results were slightly ahead of recently upgraded forecasts, with an outlook that appears more confident than many in the sector and a further small upgrade in current-year expectations. The shares offer significant upside, and we maintain our 300p price target, although our SOTP valuation signals a much higher potential to be achieved on disposals.
18 Sep 19
Management has delivered a year of excellent progress as the team continues to execute on the Group’s Pinpoint-Invest-Exit (‘PIE’) strategy. The group’s portfolio of businesses is focused on the global energy and medical markets that provide the prospect of enduring and positive growth trends. A concentration on the opportunities for aftermarket products and solutions is enhancing growth and profitability as capabilities are added and operational improvements are made. We have upgraded FY2020E EPS conservatively by 8% and estimates for FY2021E now show 25% earnings growth. FY2021E captures the benefit of the turnarounds at both Energy Steel and Booth Industries, acquired at the start of the current financial year.
18 Sep 19
Morning Note – 18 September 2019
Avingtrans (AVG): Corp FY results slightly ahead, good margin gains achieved | Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR): Corp Lixus licence additional prospects | ClearStar (CLSU): Corp Medical and direct sales continue to drive strong growth | Europa Oil & Gas (EOG): Corp Moroccan acreage award | Iofina (IOF): Corp IO#8 iodine plant launched | Quixant (QXT): Corp Market share loss at key customers will leave H2 short | Zambeef (ZAM): Corp Disposal of a farm yields US$9.25m cash | ZOO Digital (ZOO): Corp AGM statement
AVG CHAR 9537 EOG IOF QXT ZAM ZOO
18 Sep 19
Sector Note - Machinations: finnCap Industrial Technology quarterly sector note - Q3 2019
No-deal Brexit now the default: The change in the UK political leadership clearly signals that the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit has moved from 100-1 and now appear to be odds-on. Michael Gove recently confirmed that this should be regarded as the default position that we should all prepare for. Already, the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson has highlighted a number of new policies and spending projects, with a focus on high-profile infrastructure projects. The chequebook is open, with an additional £2.1bn of funding just announced. Deficit control and reduction is no longer the prime objective and Treasury funding will be used to ease the process of Brexit. We hope this may be a good news for those at the sharp end of international trade.
AVG AMPH ALU CAR FLO GHH HDD RNO SOLI SOM TRT TRI VEL LPA
16 Aug 19
Positive year-end update; forecasts upgraded
The group’s year-end trading update points to trading ahead of expectations and a better-than-expected cash performance. It has also announced the acquisition of Energy Steel in the US – a neat bolt-on to its US nuclear operations. In accordance with the guidance, we upgrade FY19 EPS by 22% and on the back of the acquisitions also upgrade FY20 EPS by 6%. Our raised 300p target price offers significant upside.
26 Jun 19
PBT increased by 24% for FY19, 15% for FY20
Avingtrans has given a strong year end trading update for the year to May 2019, driven by performance improvement from the Hayward Tyler businesses in particular, but with good growth across the group. Management now anticipates FY19 adjusted PBT of c.£5.2m, c.£1m better than expected, with improved net debt. The group has also announced another bolt-on acquisition for $1m, of US-based Energy Steel. We have increased our adjusted PBT forecast by 24% for FY19 and by 15% for FY20 as the group integrates recent acquisitions. The shares trade on an undemanding EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.6x for FY20, offering material upside as management continues to deliver value in this latest cycle of its successful buy, build and sell strategy.
26 Jun 19
Bolt-on acquisition of Booth Industries
Avingtrans has acquired the trade and certain assets of Booth Industries for £1.8m from the administrators for Redhall Group. Booth designs and manufactures performance certified steel doors for applications such as blast and fire protection, for markets including rail, nuclear and oil & gas. The acquisition brings complementary new expertise to Avingtrans, along with end market and customer overlap, and will be integrated into Avingtrans’ Process Solutions and Rotating Equipment (PSRE) division. Booth generated revenues of c.£11.7m and PBT of c.£0.3m in the year to September 2018, implying modest historic acquisition multiples of c.0.2x sales and c.6.0x EBIT. We have made no changes to our estimates to reflect the acquisition ahead of the FY19 year end trading update. However we would not expect Booth to have any significant impact on FY20 PBT, while management focuses on its integration into PSRE and restoring the business’ profitability. Our forecasts put the shares on undemanding EV/EBITDA multiples of 8.6x FY19 and 7.1x FY20, offering good upside as the group continues to deliver growth and build value.
11 Jun 19
Small Cap Feast
Renold plc—a leading international supplier of industrial chains and related power transmission products, announced that it will cancel the listing of the Company from the premium segment and apply for admission on AIM. Expected 06 June 2019. Alumasc Group plc, the prem ium building products, system s and solutions group, has announced its intention to m ove from the Premium Segment of the main market to AIM. Expected market cap of £33.4m. Expected 25 June 2019 Argentex a UK-based forex service provider founded in 2011 by its current management team which operates as a Riskless Principal for nonspeculative and forward foreign exchange as structured financial derivatives is looking to join AIM. Offer TBC, expected 25 June
AVG AMER CNC IGR DODS IOM FIH WYG ING SPSY
11 Jun 19
Sector Note -
Where are we in the cycle? There has been plenty of debate about what stage of the cycle we are in at present, and indeed the shape and duration of the current prolonged upcycle. We are, clearly in the more mature stages of the cycle and it is true to say that certain economic indicators have weakened. It currently appears that we are not heading into a downturn, or a recession, but rather a flattening-off in the global long up-cycle. The good news is that Chinese stimulus measures appear to be having some positive effects (recent Q1 data show GDP growth of 6.4% while industrial production rebounded 8.5% in March); equally, Sino/US trade disputes appear to be progressing towards being resolved, or at least ameliorated, which holds open the possibility of a relaxation of tariffs (or at least no additional ones). UK data continues to point to meagre growth, but this is being affected by Brexit. Growth remains lacklustre and the recent slight increase in PMI is related to additional Brexit buffer stock-building in March. The risk now is that the EU ‘flextension’ until the Autumn means that there is scope for some short-term destocking – which will cause a gap in some manufacturers’ orders. This lack of clarity and demand volatility causes production inefficiencies and makes business planning and forecasting more difficult, causing some to postpone investment decisions. The decline in business investment remains a serious issue for heavier, late-stage industrial equipment manufacturers and for longer-term UK competitiveness. This is especially the case given the revolution in manufacturing coming from IoT automation, robotics and other innovations such as electric vehicles/battery technology, 3D printing etc. If we fall behind in these areas, it will seriously damage longer-term productivity and international competitiveness
AVG AMPH ALU CAR FLO GHH MPE RNO RBN SOLI SOM SCE TRT TRI VEL ZAM HDD
18 Apr 19
Further material contracts for Hayward Tyler
Avingtrans has announced two more material new aftermarket contracts for its Hayward Tyler subsidiary. These are for critical pumps and spares for upgrade and refurbishment of nuclear reactors in the US and South Korea. The contracts are worth over $6m, for delivery during Avingtrans’ FY20. These awards continue the group’s strong recent contract momentum, following announcements on 18th February (nuclear aftermarket worth over £10m for Hayward Tyler) and 4th March (oil & gas original equipment worth over £10m for Peter Brotherhood). We have made no change to our estimates for today’s announcement, having upgraded by 6% in March. Our forecasts put the shares on undemanding EV/EBITDA multiples of 8.1x FY19 and 6.7x FY20, offering good upside as the group continues to deliver growth and build value.
01 Apr 19
FY20 PBT forecast increased by 6% on new contract momentum
Avingtrans has announced another material contract, for original equipment for the oil & gas market, for its Peter Brotherhood subsidiary. Peter Brotherhood will supply steam turbines for a new floating production vessel for an offshore & marine customer. The contract is worth in excess of £10m, with delivery expected primarily during Avingtrans’ FY20. This follows last week’s announcement of an aftermarket contract for nuclear life extension, worth over £10m across FY21 and FY22, for its Hayward Tyler business. We have increased our FY20 adjusted PBT forecast by 6%, reflecting strong contract momentum, ahead of that implicit in our previous estimates. Our net debt forecast has also increased to reflect working capital absorption from the end of FY19, reversing over the term of the contract. Our updated forecasts put the shares on EV/EBITDA multiples of 8.5x FY19 and 7.1x FY20. These appear undemanding given the group’s strong sales momentum and increasing profitability, as management focuses on building value in this latest cycle of its successful buy, build and sell strategy.
04 Mar 19
New order for Peter Brotherhood – EPS upgrade
Hot on the heels of last week’s encouraging results, the group has announced that Peter Brotherhood has secured a new order for steam turbines as part of an overall contract value in excess £10m. This is a high-profile order in a specialist oil & gas market niche. We maintain this year’s forecasts, but upgrade 2020 EPS by 7.2% to 14.2p. We also raise our price target from 272p to 285p, based on a target 2020 EV/EBITDA of 9.4x or a P/E of 20x compared with the current value of 14.9x. The shares currently look attractive and should continue to outperform.
04 Mar 19
Interim results – on track for FY forecasts
Interim results show a good profit improvement and confirm that trading is on track to be in line with full-year forecasts. The period has seen good organic growth of 11%, with a strong increase in aftermarket revenues and a pick-up in 3M3 nuclear container production for Sellafield. With trading on track for full-year expectations, we make minimal changes to forecasts, and reaffirm our 272p price target, which points to strong upside to current levels and with some exciting prospects over the next two years.
27 Feb 19
Good growth for H1 19, in line with expectations
Avingtrans reported strong progress for H1 19. Sales grew by 11% organically with a 350bps increase in adjusted operating margin, as the group focuses on the build phase of its buy, build and sell strategy. Both Energy divisions delivered good growth, while the smaller Medical division continued to build capability. Momentum remains strong, underpinned by order wins, and management is confident in the outlook. The shares remain on undemanding EV/EBITDA multiples (8.3x FY19, 7.1x FY20), offering good upside as the group continues to build, and ultimately crystallise, value.
27 Feb 19
Small Cap Feast
United Oil & Gas (UOG.L) an oil and gas exploration and developm ent com pany brought to the Official List (Standard Segment) in July 2017 by way of a reverse takeover of Senterra Energy plc. No capital to be raised, expected market cap of £17m and expected 1 March Techniplas –global producer and support services company providing highly engineered and technically complex components, making the supply chain to original equipment manufacturers more efficient. FYDec17 rev $515m. Polemos, to be renam ed Digitalbox plc, has agreed to acquire Digitalbox Publishing Holdings Lim ited for c.£10m through a share for share exchange. The acquisition constitutes a RTO. Polemos has also agreed to acquire the entire issued share capital of Mashed Productions Limited. a digital media business which owns the online satirical news website "The Daily Mash", for a maximum total consideration of up to £1.2m. Market cap on admission £12.4m, expected 28 February
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27 Feb 19
Nuclear contract win highlights growing momentum for Hayward Tyler
Avingtrans’ subsidiary, Hayward Tyler, has been awarded a material aftermarket contract from Vattenfall in Sweden for critical parts and components to help extend the life of the Forsmark nuclear power station. These parts will replace original equipment supplied by Hayward Tyler in the early 1980s. The contract is worth over £10m, with delivery expected to be broadly evenly split across FY2021 and FY2022. We have made no changes to our estimates, as contributions from the new contract begin after our current forecast horizon. However we are encouraged by the increasing momentum at Hayward Tyler since its acquisition by Avingtrans. We also see good potential for the business to win further contracts in nuclear life extension, given its installed base of original equipment within nuclear plants around the world. Avingtrans shares remain on undemanding EV/EBITDA multiples (8.3x FY19 and 7.1x FY20), with interim results scheduled for 27th February.
18 Feb 19
Good performance in H1, in line with market expectations
Avingtrans has given a reassuring update for H1 19, confirming good trading in line with market expectations. The performance of the Hayward Tyler businesses continues to improve and the operations have a strong pipeline of prospects. Metalcraft’s 3M3 contract for Sellafield in now in production and scaling up. Meanwhile recent bolt-on acquisitions Ormandy and Tecmag are integrating well. We do not anticipate making any changes to our forecasts as a result of the update, which underpins our existing estimates. The shares trade on undemanding multiples (EV/EBITDA 7.5x FY19, 6.4x FY20, offering good potential for outperformance.
14 Jan 19
Sector Note -
finnCap’s Industrials Brexit Survey. As Brexit is now only around 100 days away, we decided that – despite continuing uncertainties – it would be interesting to conduct a 10-question survey to investigate how management expects the small and mid cap Industrial sector to be affected by Brexit. We focused on what sensitivities they have to potential supply chain delays, raw material import prices, reductions in regulatory red tape and whether they expected changes to their ability to export to the EU, and if there are opportunities to boost trade with the rest of the world. Overall, 82% of companies responded that Brexit would be negative for their company with only 18% expecting no effect. Not a single company thought it would be positive. We hope that the survey responses will not only be of valuable insight to investors but also give company directors a broader consensus of how their competitors, customers and suppliers are all likely to react.
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19 Dec 18
Actual Experience (ACT LN) Doubling of Open PO value highlights partner traction | Avingtrans (AVG LN) Bolt-on acquisition in Medical & Industrial Imaging | Directa Plus (DCTA LN) Significant textile order provides further revenue underpinning | 1Spatial (SPA LN) Interims show new strategy on track | Mattioli Woods (MTW LN) Consistency, control and opportunity: BUY | Tatton Asset Management (TAM LN) Impressive returns already evident, more to come
AVG ACT DCTA SPA MTW TAM
23 Oct 18
Small Cap Feast
Renalytix AI—developer of artificial intelligence ("AI") decision support and clinical management tools for improving early diagnosis, continual monitoring and drug development for kidney disease. incorporated in March 2018 as a subsidiary of EKF Diagnostics Holdings (AIM-EKF). total fundraising in the range £21 - 25 m. Mkt cap - c. £67.5- £71.0m. Due 2 Nov. Kropz PLC—an emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa, a phosphate project in the Republic of Congo and exploration assets in Ghana. Looking to join AIM, offer TBC, market cap TBC. Due Late October. Azalea Energy—oil and gas production and development company based in Louisiana, United States. Net production of 13 MMcfe/D (2,200 boepd) and total 1P proved reserves of 91 Bcfe (15.1 mmboe), 2P reserves of 111 Bcfe (18.5 mmboe) raising up to $38m, expected mkt cap over $100m. Due 29 Oct Path Investments— First acquisition of a 50 per cent. participating interest in the producing Alfeld-Elze II gas field located 22 kilometres south of Hannover in Germany. Seeking £10m raise. Due late Oct Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is exploring its options in relation to a potential move to the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange which, if it were to proceed, would likely take place over the next few months.
AVG TMT CRU NEXS COS CNS DCTA MATD ARCM KRS
23 Oct 18
This edition we dedicate to the nascent electric vehicle market and associated supply chain. We have assessed the entire ecosystem in the UK and what technologies are currently available, and would highlight the following three conclusions: 1) The UK has developed a remarkably good ecosystem to enable the development and commercialisation of EV components and technology; 2) The dawn of the fully electric vehicle is going to bring about a radical simplification of the Automotive supply chain; and 3) EV isn’t the only way forward, and we see a clear role for Hydrogen, Biofuels and Synfuels.
AVG AXS AMPH ALU CAPD CAR FLO GHH MPE RNO RBN SOLI SOM SCE TRT TRI VEL ZAM HDD
10 Oct 18
Strong progress on buy & build
Avingtrans reported very strong progress for FY18, with 11% organic sales growth and adjusted PBT up over 9x. This was driven by the acquisition, integration and prompt restructuring of Hayward Tyler Group (HTG), transforming its profitability within the first nine months of ownership. Management remains confident about growth prospects for its current portfolio, underpinned by strong order coverage for the coming year, contract wins in new markets and continuing growth in higher margin aftermarket business. It will also look to accelerate value creation through further M&A now that HTG has been digested, continuing its proven buy, build and sell strategy. To this end, the group has been restructured into three divisions to aid its eventual exits from the operations and crystallisation of value. Our FY19 PBT forecast is unchanged, but we have increased EPS by 9%, and published maiden forecasts for FY20 with PBT growth of 23%. The group trades on undemanding EV/EBITDA multiples and we see significant opportunity for share price appreciation.
03 Oct 18
A tasty slice of PIE – results slightly above forecast
The results were slightly above expectations and have been driven by the 9-month contribution of Hayward Tyler since its acquisition. The integration process has gone well and completed ahead of schedule, achieving its targeted cost savings. In-line results are reassuring. We see significant upside to profits over the next few years as PB’s and HTG’s profits progress towards mid-teens EBITDA margins in the medium term. In the mean time, significant hidden value is building up, as the PIE process continues. We retain our 272p price target, offering significant medium-term upside.
03 Oct 18
Morning Note – 3 October 2018
Amino Technologies (AMO): Corp Delivering on upcycling potential | Avingtrans (AVG): Corp A tasty slice of PIE – results slightly above forecast | Mporium Group (MPM): Corp Making an impact | PCI Pal (PCIP): Corp Large contract win underpins growth forecasts | SRT Marine Systems (SRT): Corp H1 prepares for major Systems delivery in H2
AVG AMO SRT PCIP MPM
03 Oct 18
Actual Experience (ACT LN) Capital Markets Day highlights year of significant progress | Avingtrans (AVG LN) Further contract wins in US nuclear and solar markets | boohoo.com (BOO LN) Planning for next phase of growth – strengthening of leadership team | City of London Investment Group (CLIG LN) Finals: No surprises after detailed trading update | Horizon Discovery Group (HZD LN) H1’s: EBITDA loss from increased investment expected to reverse in H2 | MJ Gleeson (GLE LN) Continuing to outperform; positive dividend surprise | Realm Therapeutics (RLM LN) Corporate update: strategic review and formal sale process | Restore (RST LN) H1 results in line; acquisition integration underway
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17 Sep 18
Small Cap Breakfast
Green Man Gaming—pure play e-commerce and technology company in the digital video games industry. revenue CAGR growth of 26.7% in the last three years to £47.5m. Due late Sep. EBITDA Profitable. Offer TBA Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is exploring its options in relation to a potential move to the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange which, if it were to proceed, would likely take place over the next few months. Path Investments (PATH) -RTO of a 50 per cent. participating interest in the producing Alfeld-Elze II gas field located 22 kilometres south of Hannover in Germany. Seeking £10m. Offer TBA. Due Mid September Kropz PLC-Intention to float by the emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa and exploration assets in West Africa
AVG CORO GINV QUIZ IMMO PHP KNOS HYNS IDEA BST
05 Sep 18
Strong year end trading; FY19 PBT increased by 10%
Avingtrans’ year end update has confirmed FY18 adjusted PBT in line with market forecasts, along with slightly higher than expected net debt due to working capital absorption from strong trading. Management’s expectations for FY19 have increased. This is driven by a new contract win for c.£5m over two years and improving margins as the integration of Hayward Tyler and Ormandy progresses. Our adjusted PBT forecast is unchanged for FY18, but we have upgraded our FY19 forecast by 10% - our second material upgrade this year. We remain positive on prospects for the enlarged group, which is reinforced by its latest contract win. This leverages the skills and capabilities of both Metalcraft (original Avingtrans business) and Peter Brotherhood (Hayward Tyler acquisition), as the group continues to create value from its proven buy, build and sell strategy.
25 Jun 18
Positive trading update and contract win
The company has announced a positive end to the current year, being in line with expectations, but also signalling that 2019 profitability will exceed previous expectations, gaining from an improved margin mix and the recent purchase of Ormandy assets. We are raising our 2019 EPS forecast by 14.2% to 10.3p. This is a positive announcement and should help generate some momentum in the shares. We retain our existing 272p price target, giving considerable upside.
25 Jun 18
Avingtrans (AVG LN) Strong year end trading; FY19 PBT increased by 10% | Pebble Beach Systems Group (PEB LN) Solid full year performance underpinned by restructuring benefits | Severfield (SFR LN) Positive conclusion to FY18 | St Ives (SIV LN) 100% Strategic Marketing | Zinc Media Group (ZIN LN) More significant commissions announced
AVG PEB SFR KCT ZIN
25 Jun 18
Interim results – trading on track
Interim results were satisfactory and the group is on track to meet this year’s expectations with an upgrade in profit for 2019 plus the benefit of US tax rate reductions. It has been a transformational period for the group following the sizeable acquisition of Hayward Tyler. The initial integration actions have resulted in an improvement in operating performance. The main business units are on track operationally with good progress made in the nuclear sector, though a disappointing outturn for medical and challenging market conditions continuing for conventional power generation and oil & gas.
28 Feb 18
Good progress on integration; FY19 PBT raised 13%
Avingtrans H1 results confirmed good headway has been made on integrating Hayward Tyler Group (HTG) and restoring its prospects. The group’s financials also showed pleasing progress, with a modest adjusted operating profit reported for H1 18. We have made no changes to our adjusted PBT forecast for FY18, but have increased our FY19 forecast by 13% driven by progress on restructuring savings. We have increased our adjusted diluted EPS estimates by a more material 6% for FY18 and 37% for FY19 reflecting the benefits of recent US tax reform. The enlarged group has good opportunities for growth in Energy & Medical markets, which should deliver another cycle of value creation from its proven buy, build and sell strategy. The shares offer good value, trading on a c.20% EV/EBITDA discount to the sector.
28 Feb 18
Allergy Therapeutics (AGY): Corp PPP – Polyvac Peanut Progress | Avingtrans (AVG): Corp Interim results – trading on track | PPHE Hotel Group (PPH): Corp Well placed to expand portfolio further | Savannah Resources (SAV): Corp Scoping Study starts at Mina do Barroso
AVG AGY PPH SAV
28 Feb 18
Avingtrans (AVG LN) Good progress on integration; FY19 PBT raised 13% | Devro (DVO LN) Upgrading to Buy on valuation and recovery grounds | Genus (GNS LN) H1’s in line with expectations: solid ABS performance | Vernalis (VER LN) Tuzistra® XR scrips below guidance: evaluating strategic options
AVG DVO GNS VER
28 Feb 18
Small Cap Brunch
VR Education Holdings—a virtual reality software and technology company. Raising £6m, mkt cap c €22m. Due 12 March SimplyBiz, a Financial Services Firm, reported to be considering an IPO targeting a market capitalisation of between £140m and £155m in a listing that would raise £30m of new money. Bacanora Lithium—Readmission. No new money. Mkt cap £140m. Due 21 March. the new holding company for Bacanora Minerals Ltd Stirling Industries—Acquisition vehicle focusing on industrials. Offer TBA. Due 5 March. GRC International Group— holding company for a group of companies providing a range of products and services to address the IT governance, risk management and compliance requirements of organisations. Offer raising £5m at 70p with market cap of £40.2m, expected 5 Mar 2018 Core Industrial REIT—established to invest in Irish-based industrial properties, predominantly located in the Greater Dublin Area. Vendor placing and new funds to a total of €225m, Target gross proceeds €207m. Expected Mid March Polarean - Medical drug-device combination company operating in the high resolution medical imaging market. Offer TBC. Due Early March Block Energy—a NEX Listed UK based oil exploration and production company whose main country of operation is the Republic of Georgia, looks to join AIM end of February 2018. Offer TBC
AVG SAR SOLO DFX THR SFE AEG GWI AGY
28 Feb 18
H1 in line, with initial HTG cost savings delivered
Avingtrans’ H1 trading update has confirmed good progress in the period, with all key financial indicators in line with management expectations. Market conditions are improving and the group has won c.£7m of new contracts. The integration of Hayward Tyler Group (HTG) is proceeding to plan, with improvements in profitability underway. Initial cost savings are being delivered as anticipated as a result of the now completed restructuring. Meanwhile long-term banking facilities have been renewed at better terms. Supply chain savings and cross-selling provide further opportunities to drive long-term profitable growth. Management has reiterated expectations for FY18 and we have made no changes to our forecasts at this stage, although we note the potential for future EPS upgrades due to recent changes in US tax legislation. The shares offer good value, trading on a c.30% EV/EBITDA discount to the sector.
08 Jan 18
Small Cap Breakfast
Cradle Arc—holding company of a group of companies focused on the exploration and development of precious and base metals projects in Africa. Offer raising £2.4m with market cap of £20.13m. Expected late Jan 2018 Volex VLX.L—The global provider of cable assemblies is proposing to move from the main market to AIM on 19 January. £75m market cap. FYMar18E rev £241.5m and £7.19m PBT. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m.
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08 Jan 18
Highlights this quarter: Economics: Generally, the data points to modest growth continuing, with a more positive trend in PMI surveys suggesting decent m manufacturing momentum over the next six months. Currency weakness continues to be a double-edged sword for U K manufacturers, with exporters gaining competitiveness while input prices have risen. There has recently been a divergence of sterling’s performance against the euro and the USD. Those in commodity or competitive product areas may well have seen margin erosion, while many in intermediary goods have already passed on price increases to their customers. With low unemployment, the prospect of tighter labour markets post-Brexit and public sector pay caps starting to come off also signals the potential for some labour inflation, long absent from the UK industrial scene. Topic of the quarter: We believe that powerful macro and sectoral pressures will drive further significant changes to the manufacturing supply chain over the next few years. We investigate some of these pressures, with the move to outsource suppliers to low- cost centres, like China, now seeing a slight reverse flow with some restoring to shorten complex and often inflexible supply chains. We see systems technology facilitating greater supply-chain control and efficiency. Brexit will present challenges to the UK supply chain with price and time to market barriers likely to rise, presenting challenges to the UK’s highly integrated and time-sensitive supply chain. Slick distribution infrastructure and greater information sharing with suppliers are likely to prove winning strategies in optimising logistics and gaining stock efficiencies. Sector valuation: The industrials sector has continued to exhibit strength, with small-cap industrials outperforming by 2 % on last year and larger cap industrials by 17%. Currency and improving economic data have been a positive for the sector. While some other sectors have seen a pick-up in profit warnings over recent months, industrial technology companies have announced generally positive or in-line trading updates that have helped to drive the small-cap Industrials to an EV EBITDA of 8.4x and a P/E of 16.7x with the traditional small-cap discount narrowing.
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27 Oct 17
N+1 Singer - Avingtrans - Another cycle of value creation
Avingtrans has reported FY17 numbers a little ahead of our forecasts, for its last period before the acquisition of Hayward Tyler Group (HTG) on 31st August. The enlarged group has good opportunities for sales growth and margin enhancement, leveraging its broader product offer and specialised expertise in its niche engineering markets of Energy and Medical. This should help deliver another cycle of value creation from Avingtrans’ successful buy, build and sell strategy. We have increased our adjusted PBT forecasts by 73% to £2.1m for FY18 and set our FY19 forecasts at £3.4m, based on deliberately cautious assumptions for HTG due to its recent trading difficulties. Despite these assumptions, our forecasts put the group on a FY19 EV/EBITDA multiple which is only in line with the UK peer group. This suggests potential for significant outperformance driven by forecast upgrades and a re-rating.
27 Sep 17
HTG acquisition transforms the medium-term opportunity
The group’s FY results are in line with expectations, but have been somewhat superseded by the acquisition of Hayward Tyler (HTG), which gives greater scale and transforms prospects, albeit requiring some “heavy lifting” to restore HTG profitability. We have re-introduced forecasts, using conservative parameters, which could provide some upside. We consider the shares have several strong potential drivers over the next few years. Our price target of 272p is based on an EV/EBITDA of 11x, which provides significant upside and underwrites our Buy rating.
27 Sep 17
Avingtrans^ (AVG): HTG acquisition transforms the medium-term opportunity (BUY) | Hotel Chocolat (HOTC): Marginal increase to forecasts (HOLD) | Synairgen* (SNG): Interims and portfolio update (CORP) | InnovaDerma* (IDP): Widening the distribution network (CORP) | Fulcrum (FCRM): Strong H1, confident outlook (BUY) | K3 Business Technology* (KBT): Getting on with it (CORP)
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27 Sep 17
We recently hosted our annual Industrial Technology dinner with 14 companies, many of which are active in the materials science arena; having focused previously on composite materials in the aerospace sector, in this edition of Machinations we focus on graphene, with its unique and potentially game-changing qualities and potential applications. Investments in this area remain fairly early stage, but could potentially reap huge rewards. Graphene is well represented in the UK small-cap market by several players.
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27 Jun 17
N+1 Singer - Avingtrans - Track record of creating value
Avingtrans is a precision engineering group which creates value through buying, building and then disposing of the businesses it has developed, with a focus on specialist niches where it can achieve market leading positions. Following the sale of its Aerospace division in FY16, Avingtrans’ operations are focused on safety critical equipment for Energy & Medical markets. Significant contract wins already announced drive our forecast for 44% organic sales growth by FY18 (53% in total). We also expect further M&A, in addition to today’s acquisition of Scientific Magnetics, as management looks to continue its successful buy, build and sell strategy, recycling its retained disposal proceeds of c.£28m (having returned c.£19m to shareholders). We believe Avingtrans’ track record of value creation and financial firepower provides an attractive shareholder proposition, which we value at 202p pre M&A. It also offers significant upside as the growth strategy is delivered, with our illustrative scenario suggesting 292p. Our intrinsic valuation is calculated as the average of these at 247p.
28 Feb 17
Satisfactory interim results: small bolt-on acquisition
The interim results were in line with expectations and the group appears on track to achieve FY expectations. The small bolt-on acquisition of Scientific Magnetics adds technology in the MRI/NMR space. We make no change to our trading forecasts. There is a strong order book and we look for a production ramp up on the Sellafield, Bruker and Wuhan contracts. The £27.8m net cash will be reinvested to propel EPS from the current low levels. We raise our target price from 215p to 240p. We remain supportive in advance of acquisitions but move to a Hold rating post the recent outperformance.
28 Feb 17
Avingtrans^ (AVG): Satisfactory interim results: small bolt-on acquisition (HOLD) |Seeing Machines* (SEE): Major contract win for Guardian (CORP) |Revolution Bars (RBG): Good H1 generates 3% FY forecast increase (BUY) |Victoria* (VCP): Upgrading forecasts post acquisition (CORP) |Wentworth Resources (WRL): Q4 2016 results and operational update (BUY)
AVG SEE RBG VCP WRL
28 Feb 17
600 GROUP | ACCSYS TECHNOLOGIES | AGGREGATED MICRO POWER HLDGS PLC | ALUMASC GROUP | ANGLO-EASTERN PLANTATIONS | AVINGTRANS PLC | CAPITAL DRILLING LTD | CARCLO | FENNER PLC | FLOWTECH FLUIDPOWER PLC | GLOBAL INVACOM GROUP LTD | GOOCH & HOUSEGO PLC | HARDIDE PLC | HAYWARD TYLER GROUP PLC | IOFINA PLC | M.P.EVANS GROUP | R.E.A. HLDGS PLC | REDT ENERGY PLC | RENOLD | ROBINSON | SOMERO ENTERPRISE INC | SURFACE TRANSFORMS PLC | TRANSENSE TECHNOLOGIES PLC | TRIFAST | ZAMBEEF PRODUCTS
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19 Dec 16
Cambridge Cognition Holdings* (COG.L) | Edenville Energy (EDL.L) | Avingtrans (AVG.L) | Gaming Realms (GMR.L) | Redstone Connect (REDS.L) | Concurrent Technologies (CNC.L) | Porta Communications (PTCM.L) | Galantas Gold (GAL.L) | Range Resources (RRL.L) | Plutus Power Gen (PPG.L)
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29 Sep 16
After the severe short-term reaction to the Brexit vote, the UK manufacturing PMI now signals a return to more normal patterns and the stock market has recovered. Nevertheless, confidence remains weak. In the short term, it has largely been a phoney war. Sterling weakness has provided an opportunity for exporters. However, imported raw materials have also increased in price, as seen in the September inflation report with the input price index up 7.6%. Factory gate prices are lagging behind so beware of factory margins being squeezed. The reporting season has largely been devoid of serious shocks, with some order placement delays. However, due to the post Brexit fall in bond yields Carclo signalled a significant rise in its pension deficit, which wiped out its distributable reserves and caused it to cancel the previously declared dividend. We see potential for further bad news on pension deficits, with a number of larger industrials having significant pension liabilities that can only have grown since the referendum.
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28 Sep 16
FY results – at the fulcrum of change
Underlying FY results were broadly as expected, with the continuing operations comprised of the Energy and Medical (E&M) division post the £65.0m disposal of its aerospace business. The group is expected to return £28m to shareholders shortly. Outlook prospects are encouraging having recently had some strong new contract wins (e.g. EDF, Bruker and Rapiscan). The Sellafield contract will start to kick in through 2018. The underlying oil and gas market remains in the doldrums but will likely provide a recovery story in due course. We still see upside to the shares, and our price target of 215p indicates a post-tender-offer EV/EBITDA of 10x for 2018. Our rating remains a Buy.
27 Sep 16
Victoria* (VCP): May the floors be with you (CORP) | ClearStar* (CLSU): Screening Buy (CORP) | Avingtrans^ (AVG): FY results – at the fulcrum of change (BUY) | Netcall* (NET): Prelims show strategic progress (CORP) | Alternative Networks* (AN.): Year-end trading update (CORP) | Universe* (UNG): Project delays break up party (CORP)
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27 Sep 16
Flowtech Fluidpower (FLO): Pre-close trading update, bolt-on acquisition (BUY) | Avingtrans^ (AVG): EDF contract (BUY) | 4imprint (FOUR): Valuing the cash flow (BUY) | Europa Oil & Gas* (EOG): FEL licence extensions (CORP) | Ithaca Energy (IAE): Vorlich and Austen acquisitions (BUY) | LSL Property Services (LSL): Impaired vision (U/R)
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02 Aug 16
Opti Biotix Health * (OPTI.L) | Hutchison China Medi (HCM.L) | FairFX Group (FFX.L) | Amino Technologies (AMO.L) | Provexis (PXS.L) | APC Technology Group (APC.L) | Ithaca Energy (IAE.L) | Defenx (DFX.L) | Avingtrans (AVG.L) | Flowtech Fluidpower (FLO.L)
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02 Aug 16
Could Brexit be a positive for the UK Industrials sector? While the EU and UK are important to each other in terms of trade, the level of that importance is asymmetric: 44% of UK exports go to the EU and a further 10% go to countries with free trade agreements with the EU; only 15% of EU exports go to the UK. As a result, we feel that UK bargaining power is relatively weak and we need to accept the possibility that the UK drops out of the single market and trades under WTO terms with Europe. The extent to which this is a positive or negative for UK Industrials depends entirely on the value of Sterling versus the Euro or US Dollar. We analyse this and conclude that with a 7% (or greater) depreciation of Sterling (versus pre-Brexit levels), all the costs associated with WTO trade are more than compensated for. Big exporters become strategic winners and big foreign FX earners become financial winners. Largely domestic players are at risk. Export or die!
Economic DataIndices and Markets
18 Jul 16
Hybridan - Small Cap Wrap
AKR Distribution Agreement, AVCT Affimer Binders, AVG Return of Funds, PRSM Interim Results, COG* Distribution Agreement, FISH Placing, FITB* Board Changes, Placing and Loan Capitalisation, FUM Agreements, HCM Phase II, IGE Agreement, LRM Selected, NWF Trading Updated, PLI* Fast Track, SCH Trading Update, TMT* Invests
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01 Jul 16
AIMing for income
So what is the profile of a typical AIM quoted company? The market’s detractors may argue that London’s junior market is peppered with cash consuming companies that are not sufficiently advanced in their route to profitability nor corporate governance regimes to justify their listing. Supporters of the London Stock Exchange’s growth market would say that the Alternative Investment Market is the world’s most successful market for growing companies rewarding investors prepared to brave the risks of earlier stage funding, and driving innovation and job creation. Neither view suggests that AIM would be a fertile hunting ground for income generating stocks. However a glance at the FTSE AIM All Share constituents (Source: Fidessa) suggests that over 250 of its members or circa a quarter of the market’s members pay dividends.
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30 Jun 16
Cash proceeds offer huge opportunities
The group has now completed the disposal of its Aerospace operations, which unlocks significant hidden value and focuses the group on its Energy & Medical operations, with net cash per share level with its current share price. We expect proceeds will be partly used in a return of capital and partly on acquisitions; both have the scope to enhance EPS materially. We rebase forecasts for the disposal and pending buyback, while maintaining underlying forecasts for Energy & Medical. We see significant upside to the shares on a 1-2 year basis; with upside to forecasts as M&A activity occurs. The shares are cheaply valued and we rate them a Buy.
06 Jun 16
Avingtrans^: Cash proceeds offer huge opportunities (BUY) | Somero Enterprises*: Encouraging trading update (CORP) | Support Group: Analyst interview | Premaitha Health*: Analyst interview (CORP) | Amino Technologies*: Robust trading update (CORP) | Hardide*: Interim results (CORP)
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06 Jun 16
In Issue 2, we concluded that the VW emissions scandal was likely to result in faster development and adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles. In this issue, we discuss what we think will be a key megatrend of the 21st century: the strong push to decarbonise vehicles AND power generation. The implications for the Industrials sector are substantial and we attempt to identify some of the key winners and losers of what we think is now an unstoppable force. The full list starts on page 8 but key winners we identify are: Lithium, Copper, Hydrogen, Composites, batteries and fuel cells, electric motors, wind turbine components, solar cells, ac/dc convertors and all forms of power storage.
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04 Apr 16
Interim results, profits recover
Interims saw a decent profit recovery and place the group on track to achieve recently upgraded FY forecasts. We expect this year’s profits to be second half-weighted and EPS growth well above most industrials over the next two years, a mix of customer recovery, new contracts signed, good husbandry and acquisitive benefits. In this context, Avingtrans stands out against the peer groups and looks cheap on a 2017 P/E of 6.3x: well below its peers. Our 160p PT is based on a 2017 P/E of 9.0x. The shares look attractive and are well placed to outperform over the next few years. Buy.
17 Feb 16
As the tech dust settles!
CES 2016 has come and gone, and every little tech wizard in the world was buzzing around Las Vegas sprawling through the seemingly endless technology showcases that seem to extend to more venues every year! But what indications has this technology circus given us of 2016?
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21 Jan 16
Value screen refresh with new focus stocks
We have re-run our value basket, first established in our inaugural quant/screening research note of 26 May last year. As previously the screen produces a basket of 25 value stocks, and we have selected 10 stocks we know well to focus on. To date the value basket has performed exactly in line with the microcap index and outperformed the smallcap index by about 9pp. Our original 10 focus stocks outperformed the basket by 2.2pp. We will continue to monitor performance of the basket, and refresh it again in 3-4 months’ time.
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15 Jan 16
Dialight (DIA LN) Trading update – underlying in line | Entertainment One Ltd (ETO LN) Canadian Pensions joins the board | Small-cap quantitative research Value screen refresh with new focus stocks | T. Clarke (CTO LN) Encouraging FY update, cash ahead of expectations
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15 Jan 16
Having navigated through a tricky period, Avingtrans should see a return to growth in FY16 as the aerospace volume build is fully reflected and a new nuclear opportunity comes on stream. Forecasts for double-digit growth in both EPS and DPS supported by a strong balance sheet do not appear to be adequately reflected in a single-digit current year multiple, with inorganic development also back on the agenda.
06 Oct 15
Conviviality across the Universe, Pivotal moment for ProMetic, OptiBiotix going up scale
7DIG Half Yearly Reports, AVG Final Results, BMR Potential, COS Agreement, IKA Patent grant, MGR Half Yearly Report, MXO* Half Yearly Report and Update, OBT Half Yearly Report, OPTI* Completion of Study, ORM Half Yearly Report, PLI* Meeting with US FDA, SVR Interim Results, VLG Interim Results, UNG New Contract Win .
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05 Oct 15
The full-year results were broadly in-line with our expectations, affected by customer destocking in Aerospace and the contraction of demand in Energy, related to the oil sector. These were beyond the control of management, which reacted with a restructuring programme in November 2014 that will restore margins. With no change to our PBT forecast, the shares remain good value. We retain our 135p price target and BUY rating.
30 Sep 15
Redcentric*: Interim trading update – on track (CORP) | iomart*: Interim trading update (CORP) | Corero Network Security*: Interims show progress (CORP) | Volex: Board changes and trading update (BUY) | Avingtrans^: Full-year results (BUY) | ZincOx Resources*: Interims show improved operational performance (CORP) | Proteome Sciences*: Interims in line (CORP) |Sphere Medical*: Model update (CORP) |ServicePower Technologies*: Interim results (CORP) |Litebulb*: Interim results (CORP) |Camco Clean Energy*: Roll-in of REDT minorities (CORP) |Zambeef*: Trading good but local FX collapse (CORP) |San Leon Energy*: Interim results and Moroccan well update (CORP) |Independent Oil & Gas*: Interim results (CORP)
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30 Sep 15