German Ifo meets expectations; Taiwan Oct industrial output misses; CRH saw better Q3 growth in Americas than in H1

CRH (CRH LN, £23.0bn) | Hill & Smith (HILS LN, £1.1bn) | Somero (SOM LN, £110m) | James Halstead* (JHD LN, £1.0bn) | Headlam (HEAD LN, £377m) | Coats Group (COA LN, £985m) | Victoria (VCP LN, £527m) | IG Design Group (IGR LN, £510m) | Severfield (SFR LN, £233m)

Coats Group - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Coats Group (COA). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

Coats Group - Building Industrial momentum

FY17 results clearly demonstrate that Coats Group’s industrial operations have good momentum and a transformation plan is to enhance this further over the next couple of years. Group earnings and free cash generation were both up by double-digit percentages in FY17. While partly anticipated in the current rating, we believe that Coats is focusing on faster-growing segments and, having clarified group pension requirements, has the financial capacity to achieve this in a number of ways.

Coats Group - Above market growth

After a robust overall trading update, we have modestly rebalanced our revenue and EBIT estimates in favour of Industrials, Apparel & Footwear with group profit projections unchanged overall. We believe that management is preparing to set out the group’s growth credentials and this may provide further support for a share price that has travelled well since the beginning of the year.

Faster growth aspirations

H117 results provided clear evidence of business momentum with a strategy to accelerate the influence of innovation on future growth rates. Following a series of announcements and the H1 cash flow presentation, the ongoing pension, and therefore group, funding positions are now fully visible. The combination of these points indicates an aspiration to achieve faster group progress, in our view.

Positive signals of progress

Following the latest quarterly review, Coats Group is to enter the FTSE 250 Index with effect from 19 June. As well as signifying a strong share price performance over the last year, this concludes the company’s transition phase to a strong independent entity in our view. Valuation metrics are on a more conventional footing now and as the market’s understanding of the underlying business model increases we sense that it is starting to anticipate faster growth rates.

FY16 ahead, estimates nudged up

A busy year for Coats concluded with progress on earnings and pensions. There is more to be done on both but with pension distractions substantially resolved and good cash credentials there are more strategic options available to management. The valuation has begun to normalise now and the return to dividend payment contributes to this.

Pensions progress and dividend returns

Coats has agreed terms (subject to final settlement) for two UK defined benefit (DB) pension schemes, representing 90% of UK DB scheme liabilities. This clarifies the underlying balance sheet position and ongoing cash profile. Coats retains a strong financial position, with good earnings growth prospects and a likely return to the dividend list from FY17.

Increasing business focus to highlight valuation

Operating performance was more in focus in H116 given relatively lower-level distractions from non-trading items. Underlying margin increases were achieved by both divisions with little overall assistance from markets. Greater clarity on the group pension position – and the implications for future strategic investment and dividend payouts – is edging closer. Valuation multiples are little changed and remain low on P/E and EV bases.

Mixed trading conditions, further pension progress

Trading in the first four months of FY16 largely mirrors management’s balanced outlook comments with the FY15 results, and EBIT guidance is unchanged. We have reduced PBT estimates slightly to reflect the latest pension scheme recovery plan update. Progress in resolving legacy issues is welcome and the large Coats scheme is next to be addressed.

Making progress

Coats Group’s rating does not reflect its global market position, which is being further developed by business investment. The resolutions of legacy issues (chiefly pensions and environmental) have seen some forward steps over the last year and more are expected during FY16. Although the timing and extent of these are still to be determined, they will bring greater clarity to the company’s underlying valuation.

On track for FY15 progress

Recent group trading has been broadly in line with H1, albeit with some variation within the detail. Our estimates are unchanged and will be reviewed again at the year end. P/E multiples remain in single-digits from FY16. We note Coats’ intention to delist from ASX and NZX next year.

Newly independent, seeking growth

Having re-emerged as a newly independent company earlier this year, Coats is well placed to build on its industry-leading position. Prospects may not be fully reflected in the valuation until there is greater clarity on pensions. We contend that business development is not constrained here and – on single digit underlying multiples – Coats offers good value.

Topps Group (TPT LN) - Initiation: Market leader trading at cyclical lows

Topps Group is the UK’s largest specialist supplier and distributor of tiles and associated products to the UK’s domestic and commercial markets. Each of the last three years the Group has successfully achieved record revenue in a market that’s seen recent volume declines and regional peers enter administration. Following the right sizing of its business, Topps Group is now well positioned to capitalise on the economic recovery and continue taking share from competitors, supported by its global

LIBERUM: The Liberum Leisure Digest: NLW increase - pricing power is key

Pinewood Technologies (PINE LN) - Driving growth in automotive software

Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate

Borussia Dortmund - Helping itself

Borussia Dortmund’s progress to the semi-final of the Champions League brings a further upgrade to profit guidance for FY24. In addition to helping the financial results of the current year, the relative success of German teams against those of other nations in European competitions this season may ensure the club qualifies for the Champions League next season despite currently being outside the top four of the Bundesliga.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 17 April 24

17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

HeiQ - Acquisition, placing and trading update

HeiQ has announced the acquisition of a site in Portugal where the company intends to build a HeiQ AeoniQ production facility with a 3,000 tonne per year capacity. To support the acquisition, the company intends to raise c£2.44m via an equity placing, supported by the issue of a c£1.7m (€1.97m) convertible loan note (largely to management) that will convert upon completion of the raise. We see this as an important step in the development programme for HeiQ AeoniQ. Additionally, HeiQ has provided

Domino's Pizza - Growing the base

Domino’s Pizza Group’s (DOM’s) new CEO has set an ambitious long-term growth target, including an acceleration in its net store opening programme. With better alignment between the company and its franchisees, management believes DOM should be capable of generating improved profit growth, versus that achieved in recent years, and potential higher returns.

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

PROGRESSIVE: Vertu Motors: Traction control

Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs

Brighton Pier Group - Interim Results

Bright Pier Group’s (BPG) H1 results reflect the highly challenging operating environment, with revenue -9% YoY to £16.2m and Adj EBITDA of £1.4m (H1/22A £3.0m). This decline was driven by weaker consumer demand (falling disposable incomes and low consumer confidence), train strikes and poor weather. Trading in H2 has remained relatively subdued, and as such, we lower our FY23E Adj EBITDA forecasts to £4.2m (from £5.5m). Whilst disappointing, we note that the group remains cash generative and co

AKA: Initiating Coverage of a.k.a. Brands with Buy and $14 PT: Upside Ahead

We are initiating coverage of a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. ("a.k.a. Brands" or the "company"), a leading owner of primarily online apparel-based brands focused on Generation Z and Millennial consumers, with a Buy rating and $14.00 price target, or 10.9X our 2025 EBITDA projection of $20.2 million. The company's brands include: 1) Princess Polly, focusing on 15 to 25 year-old women; 2) Petal & Pup, which offers feminine styles for 25 to 34 year-old women; 3) Culture Kings, a street wear destinatio

Vertu Motors (VTU LN) - Market dynamics drive downgrade

An ongoing correction in used car prices has driven lower gross profit per unit for Vertu in recent months and this is expected to continue in the near term. There has been particular weakness in premium vehicle values. Additionally, higher stocking charges on increased new vehicle supply, has led to lower overall profitability. As a result, we have reduced forecast FY24 adjusted PBT by £8.0m (17%) to £39.3m and FY25 by £3.2m (6.2%) to £48.6m. This downgrade to expectations is indicative of mark

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 1 December 2023

Marks & Spencer+ (MKS, House Stock at 255p) - 7Y FS HSBC UK tie-up– another brick in the wall

HY results - strong growth continues