Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on VESUVIUS PLC. We currently have 16 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|05Dec16 10:07||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|18Nov16 11:15||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|17Nov16 05:15||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|14Nov16 10:32||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|27Oct16 07:00||RNS||Trading Update|
|06Oct16 01:11||RNS||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|30Sep16 05:51||RNS||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
Panmure Morning Note 08-09-2016
08 Sep 16
QE is like Heineken, except it destroys things other stupid policies cannot reach. In the steel industry, it has the remarkable ability to encourage more capacity building while destroying demand. Since our downgrade to SELL on July 22, the fundamentals have deteriorated further with global steel capacity utilisation falling back to Q3/15 levels. China, struggling to find domestic home for its steel, is ramping up exports and destroying margins anywhere where it can. However, demand is struggling to pick up. US domestic steel output and prices have cracked despite imposition of heavy import duties. We believe we are heading for another almighty crash, and it is hard to see how Vesuvius can sustain H1/16 performance in H2/16. We expect FY EPS to come 7% below consensus.
Steel markets heading for another almighty crash
22 Jul 16
At the start of the year, we were wrong to assume that China would take action to curtail its excess capacity and help stabilise steel markets. Latest data suggests otherwise. As Chinese surplus and global imbalances build up, trade barriers in markets like the US and India will soon be overwhelmed. As production rates come under pressure outside China, it is hard to see how Vesuvius can sustain H1/16 performance in H2/16. Consequently, we are moving our recommendation from BUY to SELL, with a target price of 300p (from 380p).
Panmure Morning Note 13-06-2016
13 Jun 16
The economics of the US steel industry continue to improve, albeit not because of demand. Tariffs are helping to cut Chinese imports in the US markets, where steel prices are now up 70% since the low point in December 2015. More importantly, capacity utilisation at US steel mills has improved from 60% in December 2016 to 75% in early June. Year-to-date US steel output is still around 2% below the same period last year, better outcome than expected given the excess Chinese production. Bears will argue that fundamentally the industry is still weak given the global over-supply. We continue to believe that at some stage China will have to take action as its steel is increasingly unwelcome around the world.
Panmure Morning Note 09-05-2016
09 May 16
Vesuvius will issue a trading update on Thursday and we expect the management to remain cautious about trading, particularly given that China appears to be reversing its policy of cutting capacity. However, we continue to believe that the fundamentals of the steel industry are improving and therefore we maintain our BUY recommendation. We believe as its exports are made increasingly unwelcome across the world, China will have no option but to cut capacity as domestic stocks rise and losses mount. US steel prices are up more than 50% and this matters more to Vesuvius as US mills increase production and restocks on consumables. The management is not relying on a turnaround to deliver cash returns. However, as fundamentals improve the risk to our forecasts are on the upside. In the meantime, an attractive yield of 5%, which we believe is sustainable, underpins the share price.
Panmure Morning Note 23-03-2016
23 Mar 16
Improvement in steel markets look real; production is being cut. In the first two months of 2016, global steel output fell by over 5% year-on-year. China, which still produces 50% of world steel, is leading the way with 6% cut in output. In the US, after heavy falls in January, output grew 3% in February and has continued to grow at this pace in March so far. For Vesuvius, the mix of cuts is beneficial as it sells more and makes higher margins in the US than in China. We now believe US sales will fall by 5% this year versus our previous expectation of a 10% fall. At the same time, we expect Asia-Pacific sales to fall 5% and not 1%. However, the margin mix will improve, and as a result we are upgrading our 2016 forecast by 6% to 23.9p, and our target price to 380p (from 370p).
Greed and Fear
03 Mar 16
Today’s results confirmed that nothing has materially changed – Vesuvius remains a cyclical business operating in a very mature industry and the best the management can do is to focus on return on capital rather than capital growth. Five years of “growth” and “restructuring” have been undone in one year: 2015 sales and trading profits were below 2010. While the valuation in the long-term will continue to be driven by the dividend, the cyclicality of the steel industry will inevitably create swings of greed and fear. We seem to have entered a period of greed, with the latest US anti-dumping decision currently providing most of the excitement. If the current discipline of production cuts is maintained, then the news flow on steel prices and expectations of rebound in 2017 steel output will add momentum to the share price. We are raising our target price to 370p (330p), equivalent to 4.4% yield. This compares with the average UK market yield of 3.4%.
Exceptional trading continues
08 Nov 16
Keywords has announced that the strong trading in localisation and audio services has continued into H216. In particular, the Synthesis business acquired in April continues to benefit from exceptionally strong trading. Full-year results are now expected to be materially ahead of consensus and we upgrade our FY16e EPS by 13%. Erring on the side of caution, we have not changed our FY17 estimates significantly. Nevertheless, we believe the company does have a platform to sustain double-digit earnings growth, and hence medium-/long-term prospects for further share appreciation remain good.
Panmure Morning Note 02-12-16
02 Dec 16
Today James Halstead will be holding its 101st AGM. Trading during the first part of FY17 has been mixed, with some notable challenges. However, movements in FX (i.e. weak sterling) is boosting reported earnings, offsetting UK volume trends and pricing pressures. Whilst earnings are likely to be second half weighted, the picture is in-line with expectations and we are leaving our FY17 PBT estimates unchanged (£47.4m in FY17 vs £45.4m FY16).
06 Dec 16
600 Group* (SIXH): Interim results: order book showing signs of improvement (CORP) | Real Good Food* (RGD): Commodity volatility impacts numbers (CORP) | Minds + Machines* (MMX): .vip goes live in China (CORP | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interims (CORP) | iomart* (IOM): Quality business as usual (CORP) | Fulcrum (FCRM): Upgrades continue (BUY)
02 Dec 16
On 30 September 2016, when the company announced its full year results, it reported that the UK business had seen a slow start to the year, with particular weakness in repair and renewal spending by the NHS as well as “reticence” in the education sector. However, with the UK only representing about a third of the business, this weakness was expected to be more than offset by the positive effect of a weakened sterling on its overseas business, given the benefits for competitiveness and margins.
06 Dec 16
Acal’s H117 results reflected the weaker demand that was previously flagged combined with positive FX trends. Design & Manufacturing (D&M) continues to grow as a proportion of total revenues and profits and management has raised its targets for this part of the business. The company continues to consider further acquisitions, recently increasing its debt facility to support its growth strategy. The outlook for FY17 is unchanged – based on H117 order inflow, H217 is expected to be stronger and we leave our earnings forecasts substantially unchanged.