Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on VESUVIUS PLC. We currently have 16 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|19Jan17 05:55||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|05Jan17 09:42||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|22Dec16 03:45||RNS||Acquisition of Brazilian Mold Flux business|
|05Dec16 10:07||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|18Nov16 11:15||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|17Nov16 05:15||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|14Nov16 10:32||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
Panmure Morning Note 08-09-2016
08 Sep 16
QE is like Heineken, except it destroys things other stupid policies cannot reach. In the steel industry, it has the remarkable ability to encourage more capacity building while destroying demand. Since our downgrade to SELL on July 22, the fundamentals have deteriorated further with global steel capacity utilisation falling back to Q3/15 levels. China, struggling to find domestic home for its steel, is ramping up exports and destroying margins anywhere where it can. However, demand is struggling to pick up. US domestic steel output and prices have cracked despite imposition of heavy import duties. We believe we are heading for another almighty crash, and it is hard to see how Vesuvius can sustain H1/16 performance in H2/16. We expect FY EPS to come 7% below consensus.
Steel markets heading for another almighty crash
22 Jul 16
At the start of the year, we were wrong to assume that China would take action to curtail its excess capacity and help stabilise steel markets. Latest data suggests otherwise. As Chinese surplus and global imbalances build up, trade barriers in markets like the US and India will soon be overwhelmed. As production rates come under pressure outside China, it is hard to see how Vesuvius can sustain H1/16 performance in H2/16. Consequently, we are moving our recommendation from BUY to SELL, with a target price of 300p (from 380p).
Panmure Morning Note 13-06-2016
13 Jun 16
The economics of the US steel industry continue to improve, albeit not because of demand. Tariffs are helping to cut Chinese imports in the US markets, where steel prices are now up 70% since the low point in December 2015. More importantly, capacity utilisation at US steel mills has improved from 60% in December 2016 to 75% in early June. Year-to-date US steel output is still around 2% below the same period last year, better outcome than expected given the excess Chinese production. Bears will argue that fundamentally the industry is still weak given the global over-supply. We continue to believe that at some stage China will have to take action as its steel is increasingly unwelcome around the world.
Panmure Morning Note 09-05-2016
09 May 16
Vesuvius will issue a trading update on Thursday and we expect the management to remain cautious about trading, particularly given that China appears to be reversing its policy of cutting capacity. However, we continue to believe that the fundamentals of the steel industry are improving and therefore we maintain our BUY recommendation. We believe as its exports are made increasingly unwelcome across the world, China will have no option but to cut capacity as domestic stocks rise and losses mount. US steel prices are up more than 50% and this matters more to Vesuvius as US mills increase production and restocks on consumables. The management is not relying on a turnaround to deliver cash returns. However, as fundamentals improve the risk to our forecasts are on the upside. In the meantime, an attractive yield of 5%, which we believe is sustainable, underpins the share price.
Panmure Morning Note 23-03-2016
23 Mar 16
Improvement in steel markets look real; production is being cut. In the first two months of 2016, global steel output fell by over 5% year-on-year. China, which still produces 50% of world steel, is leading the way with 6% cut in output. In the US, after heavy falls in January, output grew 3% in February and has continued to grow at this pace in March so far. For Vesuvius, the mix of cuts is beneficial as it sells more and makes higher margins in the US than in China. We now believe US sales will fall by 5% this year versus our previous expectation of a 10% fall. At the same time, we expect Asia-Pacific sales to fall 5% and not 1%. However, the margin mix will improve, and as a result we are upgrading our 2016 forecast by 6% to 23.9p, and our target price to 380p (from 370p).
Greed and Fear
03 Mar 16
Today’s results confirmed that nothing has materially changed – Vesuvius remains a cyclical business operating in a very mature industry and the best the management can do is to focus on return on capital rather than capital growth. Five years of “growth” and “restructuring” have been undone in one year: 2015 sales and trading profits were below 2010. While the valuation in the long-term will continue to be driven by the dividend, the cyclicality of the steel industry will inevitably create swings of greed and fear. We seem to have entered a period of greed, with the latest US anti-dumping decision currently providing most of the excitement. If the current discipline of production cuts is maintained, then the news flow on steel prices and expectations of rebound in 2017 steel output will add momentum to the share price. We are raising our target price to 370p (330p), equivalent to 4.4% yield. This compares with the average UK market yield of 3.4%.
16 Jan 17
We take a look at the rankings of the various countries in Africa that have a significant exposure to mining. We take the Transparency International corruption rankings as our starting point and modify these for exceptional geology and for current UK government travel warnings. Ghana, Botswana and Namibia come out as our top three, with Eritrea, Kenya and Zimbabwe at the bottom of our rankings.
Small Cap Breakfast
17 Jan 17
Global Energy Development (GED.L) — To be renamed Nautilus Marine Services. Schedule 1 from developer and seller of hydrocarbons and related products. Reverse takeover. Raising $10.5m via a convertible. Expected 9 Feb. Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas—TSX-V listed oil and gas exploration has announced its intention to float on AIM. Assets in Guyana and Namibia. Proposed £2m-£3m fundraise. Diversified Gas & Oil—According to LSE website first day of trading on AIM now expected for 30 January.
N+1 Singer - St Ives - Downgrade
19 Jan 17
Marketing activation has been impacted by further decline in grocery retail impacting profit by c£5m. Strategic The Company is also taking this opportunity to revise its guidance for Strategic Marketing as its recovery pace is not running at the planned target rate. PBT falls from N1Se £31.9m to £25m. The Company expects dividend to be held based upon lowered guidance and the implied cash flow performance. There do not appear to be any covenant issues. Forecasts and TP under review and downgrade to Hold. We expect the shares to test the 100p level.
19 Jan 17
Aggregated Micro Power* (AMPH): Funding for first peaking power plant project (CORP) | The Mission Marketing Group* (TMMG): Positive trading update (CORP) | Cello (CLL): Increasingly backed by, and leveraging, technology (BUY) | 4imprint (FOUR): Growth backed by strong cash flow continues (BUY) | Allergy Therapeutics (AGY): Positive trading update and market share gains drive upgrades (BUY) | Shanta Gold (SHG): Q4 operating results (BUY) | Sound Energy (SOU): Tendrara extended well test result (BUY) | Revolution Bars (RBG): Price target increase (BUY)
Trading conditions difficult but acquisitions underpin growth
23 Jan 17
FY16 revenue will be £53.7m (FY15: £44.8m), in line with ZC estimate of £53.9m, showing growth of c. 20% yoy underpinned by the three acquisitions undertaken in the year. However, due to higher costs relating to the acquisitions and, to a lesser extent, gross margin pressure, PBT will be in the region of £7.0 to £7.2m equating to growth of between 5.5% and 8.0%. As a result, FY16 ZC profit forecast is reduced by 8.0% to £7.0m. The impact in FY18 and FY19 is muted by the announcement of a further acquisition leading to an increase in revenue estimates of 8.7% whilst profit estimates fall c.4.5% in each year, respectively. Despite the decrease in forecasts the PER multiple on FY17 earnings remains single digit at just 9.1x, against a distributor average of 15.8x. With commitment to the forecast dividend increase reiterated, Flowtech offers an above average yield of 4.1%
N+1 Singer - Northern lights - Shining prospects for 2017
16 Jan 17
As the birthplace of Stephenson, Armstrong and Swan, the North East of England has a proud history of industrial and technological innovation. Despite local economic challenges, the region’s industrial heritage lives on through continuing success in high end engineering and technology. The recent takeovers of private equity backed SMD (subsea robotics) and Nomad Digital (wi-fi on the railways) are testament to this. The North East has also emerged as a leader in genetics and genomics with an enviable life sciences and healthcare infrastructure. Against this backdrop, we expect the region to continue to throw up attractive IPO candidates to build on the six new listings in the past three years. We expect 2017 to be far kinder to the existing portfolio of North East plcs than 2016 (a year to forget) with recent management changes one important theme for the new year. Our top picks are Hargreaves Services, Quantum Pharma and Zytronic (all N+1 Singer Corporate clients) and we are Buyers of Northgate and Grainger.