Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree offers VESUVIUS PLC research coverage from 1 professional analysts, and we have 16 reports on our platform.
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|27/10/2016 07:00:08||London Stock Exchange||Trading Update|
|06/10/2016 13:11:38||London Stock Exchange||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|30/09/2016 17:51:28||London Stock Exchange||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|28/09/2016 07:00:11||London Stock Exchange||Directorate Change|
|15/09/2016 11:04:30||London Stock Exchange||Holding(s) in Company|
|14/09/2016 16:27:53||London Stock Exchange||Holding(s) in Company|
|02/09/2016 17:20:33||London Stock Exchange||Holding(s) in Company|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on VESUVIUS PLC
Providers covering VESUVIUS PLC
Panmure Morning Note 08-09-2016
08 Sep 16
QE is like Heineken, except it destroys things other stupid policies cannot reach. In the steel industry, it has the remarkable ability to encourage more capacity building while destroying demand. Since our downgrade to SELL on July 22, the fundamentals have deteriorated further with global steel capacity utilisation falling back to Q3/15 levels. China, struggling to find domestic home for its steel, is ramping up exports and destroying margins anywhere where it can. However, demand is struggling to pick up. US domestic steel output and prices have cracked despite imposition of heavy import duties. We believe we are heading for another almighty crash, and it is hard to see how Vesuvius can sustain H1/16 performance in H2/16. We expect FY EPS to come 7% below consensus.
Steel markets heading for another almighty crash
22 Jul 16
At the start of the year, we were wrong to assume that China would take action to curtail its excess capacity and help stabilise steel markets. Latest data suggests otherwise. As Chinese surplus and global imbalances build up, trade barriers in markets like the US and India will soon be overwhelmed. As production rates come under pressure outside China, it is hard to see how Vesuvius can sustain H1/16 performance in H2/16. Consequently, we are moving our recommendation from BUY to SELL, with a target price of 300p (from 380p).
Panmure Morning Note 13-06-2016
13 Jun 16
The economics of the US steel industry continue to improve, albeit not because of demand. Tariffs are helping to cut Chinese imports in the US markets, where steel prices are now up 70% since the low point in December 2015. More importantly, capacity utilisation at US steel mills has improved from 60% in December 2016 to 75% in early June. Year-to-date US steel output is still around 2% below the same period last year, better outcome than expected given the excess Chinese production. Bears will argue that fundamentally the industry is still weak given the global over-supply. We continue to believe that at some stage China will have to take action as its steel is increasingly unwelcome around the world.
Panmure Morning Note 09-05-2016
09 May 16
Vesuvius will issue a trading update on Thursday and we expect the management to remain cautious about trading, particularly given that China appears to be reversing its policy of cutting capacity. However, we continue to believe that the fundamentals of the steel industry are improving and therefore we maintain our BUY recommendation. We believe as its exports are made increasingly unwelcome across the world, China will have no option but to cut capacity as domestic stocks rise and losses mount. US steel prices are up more than 50% and this matters more to Vesuvius as US mills increase production and restocks on consumables. The management is not relying on a turnaround to deliver cash returns. However, as fundamentals improve the risk to our forecasts are on the upside. In the meantime, an attractive yield of 5%, which we believe is sustainable, underpins the share price.
Panmure Morning Note 23-03-2016
23 Mar 16
Improvement in steel markets look real; production is being cut. In the first two months of 2016, global steel output fell by over 5% year-on-year. China, which still produces 50% of world steel, is leading the way with 6% cut in output. In the US, after heavy falls in January, output grew 3% in February and has continued to grow at this pace in March so far. For Vesuvius, the mix of cuts is beneficial as it sells more and makes higher margins in the US than in China. We now believe US sales will fall by 5% this year versus our previous expectation of a 10% fall. At the same time, we expect Asia-Pacific sales to fall 5% and not 1%. However, the margin mix will improve, and as a result we are upgrading our 2016 forecast by 6% to 23.9p, and our target price to 380p (from 370p).
Greed and Fear
03 Mar 16
Today’s results confirmed that nothing has materially changed – Vesuvius remains a cyclical business operating in a very mature industry and the best the management can do is to focus on return on capital rather than capital growth. Five years of “growth” and “restructuring” have been undone in one year: 2015 sales and trading profits were below 2010. While the valuation in the long-term will continue to be driven by the dividend, the cyclicality of the steel industry will inevitably create swings of greed and fear. We seem to have entered a period of greed, with the latest US anti-dumping decision currently providing most of the excitement. If the current discipline of production cuts is maintained, then the news flow on steel prices and expectations of rebound in 2017 steel output will add momentum to the share price. We are raising our target price to 370p (330p), equivalent to 4.4% yield. This compares with the average UK market yield of 3.4%.
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Fighting the waves
25 Oct 16
Management action in response to a tough trading climate and falling profits should contribute to a sound recovery in profits next year. Following share price weakness, the group is valued at a substantial discount to both the broking market leader Clarkson and to other peers. Meanwhile, if the dividend can be held, the shares offer a well above-average yield, pending an eventual improvement in trading conditions.
21 Oct 16
STM* (STM): Acquisition of London & Colonial (CORP) | Hurricane Energy (HUR): £70m placing and open offer (BUY) | Firestone Diamonds* (FDI): Liqhobong commissioning update (BUY) | Accsys (AXS): Acorn aiming to be a mighty oak – analyst interview (BUY) | Avacta* (AVCT): Act now… – analyst interview (CORP) | Tristel* (TSTL): Full year 2016 results – analyst interview (CORP)
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-10-2016
21 Oct 16
Xaar has announced that its FD, Alex Bevis, will be leaving to pursue other opportunities after almost 6 years with the group. A search is underway for his replacement and Alex will remain with Xaar until 24th March 2017. While Alex’s departure is disappointing, Xaar’s strategy remains on track, with new product launches expected to drive near term organic sales growth and a target of £220m sales by 2020. This reflects stronger leverage of Xaar’s innovative technology into a broader spread of end products and markets, with the £220m expected to be composed of broadly equal contributions from ceramics, packaging & product printing, Thin film/P4, and partnerships/M&A. Prospects for the group are exciting, with positive news flow on product launches and end markets anticipated over the year ahead.
FY17 expectations unchanged. Interim dividend maintained
25 Oct 16
Interims reflect tough markets which impacted Technical. Shipbroking delivered a resilient result and Logistics has performed well. The interim dividend has been held at 9.0p. The group anticipate an improvement in H2. The Board’s expectations for the year are unchanged based upon the strength of the order book due in H2, its ongoing market coverage and the benefits of action taken previously. We have retained our FY2017 PBT forecast of £8.7m and a maintained dividend. We reiterate our Buy and adjust our TP to 450p.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 20-10-2016
20 Oct 16
A highly disappointing update from Senior reports a number of issues adding up to the Group being behind expectations. Following the Flexonics issues over the past 12 months, there are now issues on the Aerospace side which are affecting the outlook. In a period when some stability was required, this is disappointing. We have downgraded FY16 EPS by 6.8% and, whilst we see Senior remaining a US takeover target, we move from Buy to Hold (target price down from 262p to 196p) until more clarity is available on the direction of the Group.