Morning Note – 25 April 2024

Trifast (TRI LN) - Trading conditions remain difficult but self-help initiatives coming through

Despite end market demand remaining difficult in several regions Trifast has announced that revenue and profitability will be marginally ahead of the guidance provided at the end of January. Self-help initiatives instigated during 2023 are starting to come through providing visibility on the majority of the £3.0m savings identified to come through in the current financial year (Mar FY25). Zeus estimates were in line with guidance of £230m revenue, £11.5m EBIT and £6.0m PBT. We leave forecasts un

Trifast - Q3 trading update: poor December lowers FY24 expectations

The Q3 update highlights December was significantly affected by lower volumes at its Asian operations and global distribution sales channel. Both had been expected to recover. Markets generally continue to give low visibility and volatile demand in a number of end markets, with recent geopolitical events also a contributory factor. As a result, FY24 is now expected to be significantly below previous expectations, with revenues of £230m and EBIT margin of c5%. We cut FY24E EPS by 38% to 3.7p and

Morning Note – 22 January 2024

Trifast (TRI LN) - Market demand weakens in December

Trifast has released a trading update indicating that demand in Asia and global distribution sales channels has been weak in December leading to a decline in volumes. Zeus revise FY24 forecasts in line with guidance provided in the statement, with revenue of £230.0m (prev. £253.3m), EBIT of £11.5m (prev. £16.0m) leading to PBT of £6.0m (prev. £11.2m). FY25 and FY26 estimates are reduced accordingly (full details of changes to Zeus forecasts can been seen on page 2). Despite the weakening in the

Morning Note – 21 November 2023

Trifast - Interims – margin gains on track but with higher interest costs

Interims highlight a resilient performance in challenging market conditions. Some decent margin gains have already been delivered from internal actions, with more expected. Adj PBT has been affected by higher interest charges. A strong focus on cash generation has resulted in a £10.2m reduction in net debt to £27.8m, driven by a reduction in working capital. We reduce FY24E EPS by 12.3% and FY25E by 20%. We shave our TP to 100p, offering significant upside from currently attractive levels, being

Trifast (TRI LN) - Interim results show strategic progress

Trifast has announced an encouraging set of interim results both operationally and financially. The operational improvements being made under the new management team are starting to be reflected in the financial performance of the business, particularly in terms of working capital. Despite the operating environment remaining challenging, it is on course to broadly hit ZC FY24 profit estimates. Importantly the working capital commitment of the business continues to fall improving cash generation

Morning Note – 24 October 2023

Trifast (TRI LN) - Trading in line, strong progress on its strategic initiatives

Trifast has released a trading update ahead of its interim results next month (21st November) confirming trading remains in line with management expectations despite a tough macroeconomic backdrop. Revenue for H1 is down c. 2% yoy (AER) as strength in its Light and Heavy vehicle end markets (c. 35% of FY23 revenue) was more than offset by weakness in its Health & Home and Distribution channels (c. 35% of FY23 revenue). Importantly, however, the Group’s strategic initiatives are bearing fruit as

Morning Note – 11 July 2023

Trifast - FY23 results in line: a refined strategy to focus on delivery

FY23 results were in line with reduced forecasts, with the group experiencing a tough year. The new management team have got to grips with several initiatives to refine strategy and sharpen focus on profit and cash generation. The pricing reviews have started to recoup inflationary pressures and have restored gross margins in H2 to more normal levels. Inventories have been cut by £10m in H2, while the UK restructuring should yield annualised cost savings of £5m. The new year has started well, su

NextSource Materials - Initiation

NextSource is uniquely positioned to build a leading vertically integrated position, ex China, in the supply of Lithium-ion battery anode material which is essential for the Energy Transition. The company is commissioning phase 1 of its world-class Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and is in the final permitting process for its first Battery Anode Facility (BAF) to be located in Mauritius. The company is backed by Vision Blue, established by Sir Mick Davis, former CEO of Xstrata. On our calculat

i3 Energy - 2024 Guidance: Consolidation for Growth

i3 Energy announced that its 2024 guidance consists of expectations to drill 10.5 net wells (7.6 net wells in Central Alberta, 1.9 net wells in Simonette and 1.0 net wells in the Clearwater play) with 85% of capex allocated to the second half of the year. Total capex expenditure for the year is guided at $US 50.9m. The company indicated that it intends to commence pad drilling of its Montney acreage in Q1 2025 and we perceive the company is bulking up for that significant growth opportunity for

Initiation of Coverage - Critical raw materials for Europe’s green transition

Beowulf is advancing a portfolio of projects in Europe focussed on metals and minerals that are critical to enabling the continent’s transition to a greener economy. Awareness of Europe’s over-reliance on external supply sources for such vital raw materials is driving growing political support for ‘home-grown’ projects. Beowulf is strategically positioned to leverage this fast-evolving trend – its Kallak project in Sweden holds potential to deliver high-quality iron ore to lower the carbon-inten

Falcon Oil & Gas - Funding a Multi TCF Resource

Falcon has raised gross proceeds of US$8.9m via a placing and subscription at a price of 6p/share and the granting of overriding royalty interests. The net proceeds, together with Falcon’s existing cash resources (cUS$4.3m) will be used to fund Falcon’s net share of 2024 capex (cUS$9m) associated with the 40MMscf/d Shenandoah South Pilot Project, including the drilling, stimulation, and flow testing of two 10,000ft horizontal wells. The funds will also enable Falcon to fund its share of the cost

Beowulf Mining (BEM LN) – Initiation Note – BUY – Supporting Scandinavia's Green Transition

Beowulf is an AIM/Spotlight-listed developer of two flagship assets; Kallak, a high-grade iron ore project in Sweden and the Grafintec Graphite Anode Materials Plant. The Company's Kallak North project has the potential to produce 2.5mtpa of high-grade, premium iron ore concentrate suitable for the growing green steel industry in Sweden. Additionally, Grafintec's Anode Material Plant Project is well positioned to serve the growing EV battery supply chain in Europe, whilst supporting EU plans

I3 Energy (I3E LN) - 2024 work programme and budget

I3 has released its work programme and budget for 2024, alongside providing guidance for the year. This represents a larger programme than 2023, with the focus now shifting to greater operational activity and production gains given the additional balance sheet strength achieved in recent months.

Morning Note – 22 April 2024

Morning Note – 24 April 2024

Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Constrained test rate of 14 mboe/d at Mopane-1X. 10+ bn boe in place confirmed.

• Multiple tests over multiple zones in multiple horizons were run at the Mopane-1X exploration well. The flows achieved during the well test reached the maximum allowed limits of 14 mboe/d. The flow rate was constrained by the size of the available surface facilities. • The AVO-1 horizon encountered at Mopane-1X and Mopane-2X are in the same pressure regime, suggesting that the entire area (8 km diameter) between the two wells is connected. Overall, in the Mopane complex alone, and before dril

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 44p) - Closing of expanded bank facilities

Jubilee Metals - Operational Update Q3 FY2024

Jubilee today reports its Q3 and third quarter operational results from its expanding operations in Zambia (copper) and South Africa (chrome and PGM). South Africa is on a growth trajectory with record chrome production of 409kt in the quarter (Q2 FY2024 381kt) and a monthly record in March of 145kt and production YTD of 1.13Mt (0.94Mt). Jubilee is well underway to its annual target capacity of 2,1Mt/yr especially with the new 300kt/yr chrome plant at Thutse expected to be operational in August

LIBERUM: Ferrexpo: Production triples

SP Angel Morning View: Gold prices slide following profit taking as traders look to US data

SP Angel Morning View: Copper prices hit $9,700/t as China smelts concentrates for zero charge Tc/Rc

I3 Energy (I3E LN) - Canada royalty assets sale

I3 has announced the sale of the majority of its royalty interests in Canada, for US$24.8m cash. This allows the company to fully repay amounts drawn on its debt facility and create a working capital surplus, giving I3 significant additional funding flexibility going forward