Gamesys Group - Top end of consensus
Gamesys has reported a positive pre-close trading update following a strong final quarter. The company expects FY19 pro-forma revenue and adjusted EBITDA to reach the top end of consensus estimates, with encouraging trends across the different divisions. Revenues from international markets (35% of total) continue to post high growth and, importantly, H219 has witnessed a return to growth in the core UK market. FY19 results are due in March 2020 and we believe there is a slight upside risk to our FY19 figures. For FY20e the stock trades at 6.2x P/E and 7.3x EV/EBITDA, with a 13.3% FCF yield.
14 Jan 20
Gamesys Group - Growth across the enlarged group
Gamesys’ pro forma Q319 revenues increased by 20% to £144.3m due to 57% growth in Vera&John (international markets), strong momentum in the acquired Gamesys business and, encouragingly, a return to growth in the Jackpotjoy UK brand. The EBITDA margin declined 680bp to 26.7% as a result of higher taxes and marketing spend. We are raising our FY19 revenues estimate by 2.3% but keeping our EBITDA forecasts unchanged. We continue to forecast net cash flow of £105m in FY20 and our net debt/EBITDA falls from 3.0x currently to 2.0x at end FY20. The stock trades at 6.0x P/E and 7.1x EV/EBITDA, with a 13.8% FCF yield for FY20e.
13 Nov 19
JPJ Group plc - Raising FY19 forecasts by c 3%
JPJ’s standalone H119 revenues increased by 14% to £169.5m, with an adjusted EBITDA of £54.0m. Including Gamesys, pro-forma H119 revenues were £265.6m. This was above our expectations due to another exceptional performance in the Vera&John division, which grew revenues by 58%. As expected, the UK (both JPJ and Gamesys) and Sweden continue to suffer the impact of rising taxes and restrictive regulations. The Gamesys acquisition is due for completion in Q319 and we raise our FY19 pro-forma forecasts by c 3%. Our FY20 and FY21 forecasts remain broadly unchanged. JPJ trades at 7.0x EV/EBITDA and 5.6x P/E for FY20, at the low end of the peer group.
13 Aug 19
Diversification and scale for online success
The global online gaming market generated c £40bn of gross gaming revenues (GGR) in 2018 and newly regulating markets (the US) are expected to contribute to 7% CAGR to 2023 (according to H2 Gambling Capital (H2GC)). However, while regulated markets have provided significant opportunities for operators to date, government intervention remains a constant threat and legislation is tightening. Some mature markets (notably the UK) have been raising taxes and implementing regulatory burdens, which increases the cost of business. In our view, success will depend on a combination of scale, diversification, proprietary technology and a strong balance sheet. Many of the 12 operators in this report should benefit from these dynamics and sector valuations remain attractive, at 12.6x P/E, 8.2x EV/EBITDA and 6.0% dividend yield for FY19.
GYS 888 ACX BETSB ORPH GVC OPAP PTEC RNK WMH
11 Jul 19
JPJ Group plc - Pro forma figures; 10.5% EPS accretion in FY20
We are updating our forecasts to reflect JPJ’s £490m proposed acquisition of Gamesys. For FY20, our pro forma adjusted EBITDA is 77% higher than for standalone JPJ and we forecast EPS accretion of 10.5%. The £490m consideration will be split between £250m cash (including £175m of add-on facilities) and £240m in 33.7m new JPJ shares. We forecast net debt/EBITDA of 3.1x at YE19, falling rapidly to 2.0x at YE20. On this basis, we believe the company could start to pay dividends in H220, and would be in a position to consider share buybacks. Assuming the deal completes on these terms, JPJ trades at 7.6x EV/EBITDA and 6.4x P/E for FY20.
19 Jun 19
JPJ Group plc - Proposed acquisition of Gamesys
JPJ has announced a £490m proposed acquisition of Gamesys (its current platform provider), which equates to c 7.3x adjusted EV/EBITDA. The resulting company will be over 50% larger and key benefits include full control of the technology and meaningful scale with high-profile brands. The £490m consideration will be split between £250m cash (including £175m add-on facilities) and £240m in 33.7m new JPJ shares. Net debt/EBITDA is expected to be c 3.1x on the pro forma basis, although we envisage rapid deleveraging going forward. Our initial analysis suggests that the deal will be c 10% EPS accretive in FY20, implying a c 6.5x FY20 P/E, and we will adjust our forecasts after the conference call.
13 Jun 19
JPJ Group plc - Growth through diversification
Once again, a strong performance in international markets has fully offset the well-flagged regulatory challenges in the UK. Q119 revenues increased by 13% to £83.3m, driven by a 62% growth in the Vera&John division. Operating leverage from the proprietary platform contributed to a 16% increase in adjusted EBITDA (£29.0m vs £24.9m). Net debt/EBITDA has fallen below 2.5x and management will provide an update on plans to return cash to shareholders in August. For FY20 the stock trades at 6.5x P/E, 8.0x EV/EBITDA, with an estimated dividend yield of 6.4%.
15 May 19
JPJ Group plc - International continues to drive growth
Driven by an impressive 42% organic growth in the Vera&John division, JPJ reported FY18 revenue growth of 10% to £319.6m with an EBITDA margin of 35.3%. International now comprises 43% of revenues and we expect this to increase as the company diversifies away from the UK. Cash generation remains strong and adjusted net debt/EBITDA has fallen from 3.6x in FY17 to 2.7x in FY18. Management is committed to a progressive dividend policy (once the ratio is sustainably below 2.5x) and would also consider share buybacks at that point. The stock is trading at the bottom of the peer group at 6.7x P/E and 8.2x EV/EBITDA for FY19e.
19 Mar 19
JPJ Group plc - Farewell to Mandalay
JPJ has announced a definitive agreement to sell its Mandalay subsidiary to 888 Holdings for £18m cash. During FY18, Mandalay reported revenues of c £11m and PBT of c £3.7m, which represents a deal value of c 5.0x EV/EBITDA. This subsidiary has significantly underperformed the rest of JPJ’s business and was particularly affected by the additional bonus tax in 2017. We therefore believe this asset sale is a net positive and should enable the company to better focus on its market-leading brands. The stock continues to trade at the low end of the peer group, at only 8.7x EV/EBITDA, 7.2x P/E and 11.9% free cash flow yield for FY19e.
19 Feb 19
JPJ Group plc - Remote gaming duty increases in April 2019
Following the resignation of Sports Minister Tracey Crouch, the UK government has bowed to pressure to bring forward the reduction in FOBT stake limits, from October 2019 to April 2019. To coincide with the FOBT changes, the planned increase in remote gaming duty (from 15% to 21%) will also commence in April. We reduce our FY19e EBITDA by a further £6m but our FY20 estimates are unchanged. JPJ shares have fallen by c 30% ytd and, despite the reduced EBITDA, trade at only 5.7x P/E, 7.5x EV/EBITDA and 15.1% free cash flow yield for FY19e.
15 Nov 18
JPJ Group plc - Strong figures despite headwinds
Despite the deluge of negative news across the UK gaming sector, JPJ Group plc (JPJ) has produced another strong quarter, with gaming revenue growth of 8% to £77.8m and an EBITDA margin of 37%. The strategy to expand beyond the UK is clearly paying off; Vera&John revenues increased 40% and international now represents 44% of total revenues. Net debt is reducing rapidly, helped by Q318 operating cash flow of £33m, as well as the £18m cash from the disposal of the social business, and we anticipate dividends from next year. JPJ shares have fallen by c 30% ytd June and now trade at only 5.2x P/E, 7.0x EV/EBITDA and 16.6% free cash flow yield for FY19e.
14 Nov 18
JPJ Group plc - RGD increase marginally higher than expected
The UK government has raised remote gaming duty (RGD) from 15% to 21%. This is 1% higher than expected by the market and we now include a c £12m annual impact on group EBITDA into our forecasts for JPJ. While regulatory pressures are likely to remain a feature of the UK gaming sector, JPJ should benefit from its market leading position and we anticipate annual operating cash flow of over £90m. The stock has fallen c 40% since June and now trades at 7.9x EV/EBITDA, 5.6x P/E and 15.5% free cash flow yield for FY19e.
30 Oct 18
JPJ Group plc - Global growth keeps profits intact
JPJ Group plc (JPJ’s) Q2 headline numbers were in line with our expectations, with growth in international markets offsetting weaker UK revenues. The company remains competitively well positioned across all its key markets and is highly cash generative. JPJ has signed a share purchase agreement for the sale of the social business for £18.1m cash, which we estimate had annual revenues of £12m and EBITDA of £3.5m. We have adjusted our EBITDA to reflect the sale, but our profit forecasts would otherwise have been broadly unchanged. The stock continues to trade at a meaningful discount to peers, at 9.8x EV/EBITDA and 8.2x P/E for FY19e.
14 Aug 18
Moving to a premium listing
As a validation of its maturing business model and strengthened corporate governance, Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) has announced a proposed transfer of its entire share capital from a Standard to a Premium Listing on the Official List of the FCA. The transfer is expected to take effect on 26 July 2018 and the company hopes to be included in the FTSE UK Index at the next quarterly review. Concurrently, the company’s name will be changed to JPJ Group.
27 Jun 18
International drives revenue growth
Jackpotjoy plc’s (JPJ’s) Q1 revenues rose 13% to £80.7m, driven primarily by diversification and growth in international markets, with its Vera&John division (26% of revenues) increasing 35%. The earn-out period for the Spanish division has now ended and, given its strong performance, the total contingent consideration increased 20% in the quarter to £72.1m, with £63.8m payable this year. Our headline revenue and profit forecasts remain broadly unchanged and we continue to expect significant deleverage after the final major earn-out payment in June 2018. The stock trades at 7.8x EV/EBITDA and 6.5x P/E for FY19, a meaningful discount to peers.
15 May 18
A transformational year
2017 was a transformational year for JPJ, with a successful London listing followed by substantial improvements in the capital structure. JPJ is the leading operator in the £800m UK online bingo market and has now delivered five consecutive sets of robust quarterly results. FY17 revenue growth of 14% y-o-y to £304.7m was accompanied by an operating cash flow of £102m. After the final major earn-out payment in June 2018, we expect meaningful deleveraging. Our forecasts now include dividend payments from 2019. The shares rose by c 40% in 2017 but still trade at a significant discount to peers at 8.1x EV/EBITDA and 6.9x P/E for 2018e.
20 Mar 18
10% EPS upgrade on refinancing
Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) has made another significant step towards the improvement of its capital structure, by securing a c £388.5m senior secured term and revolving credit facility. The facility will replace its existing first and second lien term notes and, although 2017e gross debt increases by c £40m, cash interest costs should decline by c 33% pa. We estimate that pro forma adjusted net leverage of 3.4x (3.35x at Q317) will fall to 2.4x in 2018 and 1.6x in 2019. We have increased our 2018 and 2019 EPS by c 10%. JPJ’s shares have risen 39% since the January listing in London, but still trade at a meaningful discount to peers at 7.0x P/E, 8.0x EV/EBITDA and 13.3% free cash flow yield for 2018e.
27 Nov 17
An attractive deleveraging bet
Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) is the clear leader in the c £800m UK bingo-led market, with exceptionally high EBITDA margins and strong cash flow. The group’s balance sheet is simplifying following a major earnout payment and we expect it to reach 2.0x net debt/EBITDA in 2019. With four sets of strong quarterly figures under its belt, JPJ’s shares have risen 42% since the January listing in London. Nonetheless, at 7.9x P/E, 8.2x EV/EBITDA and 11.7% free cash flow yield for 2018e, the stock still trades at a significant discount to peers and we believe the re-rating will continue as value steadily transfers from debt to equity.
14 Nov 17
A third set of reassuring quarterly figures
Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) has produced another set of robust quarterly earnings, with Q217 revenues increasing 17% to £75.2m and a 39.9% EBITDA margin. The core Jackpotjoy division grew 18% and is gaining market share. Q3 has started well, management has reiterated its expectations for FY17 and our forecasts remain unchanged. The stock trades at a significant discount to peers, with 2018e multiples of 7.2x EV/EBITDA, 6.1x P/E and 15.0% free cash flow yield. The balance sheet is simplifying following a major earn-out payment and, as the company continues to demonstrate its market dominance, we would expect a re-rating in the shares.
15 Aug 17
Market dominance brings the cash
Driven by the market-leading Jackpotjoy division, Q1 gaming revenues rose 11% to £71.4m with an EBITDA margin of 40.9% and underlying cash conversion of c 100%. Q2 trading has started well across all divisions. Adjusted net debt/EBITDA of c 4.0x remains high, but Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) is comfortably positioned to pay a major c £95m earnout in June and we expect significant deleverage from 2018. The market is pricing in a high degree of execution risk, with 2017 trading multiples of 6.9x EV/EBITDA and 6.1x P/E. Despite regulatory headwinds, we forecast continued strong underlying growth and we would expect a re-rating as debt repayments begin to drive value to equity.
16 May 17
Deleveraging to drive value
Jackpotjoy plc’s (JPJ) maiden London-listed results demonstrated the benefits of leading market brands in a profitable and cash generative business. Pro-forma group revenues grew 15% in FY16, with industry leading EBITDA margins of 38%. The stock has suffered from unusually high net debt, a lack of dividend and a complex relationship with Gamesys. However, the revised terms of the contract, together with the end of the major earn-out period, suggest that deleveraging will be on track. 2017 trading multiples of 6.7x EV/EBITDA and 5.9x P/E are far below the sector and, as JPJ continues to demonstrate its market dominance in bingo-led gaming, the stock appears attractive as a turn-around candidate.
30 Mar 17
A fresh start
Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) has market-leading brands in female-oriented gaming. Our forecast 2017/18 EBITDA growth is 6% pa, underlying cash flows are strong and leverage should reduce rapidly after a major earn-out is paid this June. The rating is very low given its regulated bias (78%) with a 2017e P/E of only 6.6x. With a new, highly experienced UK management team and debt finance now in place, we expect a re-rating towards the sector 2017e P/E average of 12.1x, which would imply a valuation of c 900p per share.
10 Feb 17