Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ARBUTHNOT BANKING GROUP PLC. We currently have 9 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
|18Oct16 09:36||RNS||Hardman&Co. Special dividend, accelerated investm.|
|13Oct16 07:00||RNS||Third Quarter Trading Update|
|06Oct16 02:53||RNS||Appointment of Independent Non-Executive Director|
|01Aug16 03:22||RNS||H&Co: Tripedalism - three legs are better than two|
|19Jul16 07:00||RNS||Results for the six months to 30 June 2016|
|01Jul16 04:40||RNS||Second Price Monitoring Extn|
|01Jul16 04:35||RNS||Price Monitoring Extension|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
ARBUTHNOT BANKING GROUP PLC
ARBUTHNOT BANKING GROUP PLC
The Monthly November 2016
01 Nov 16
Share prices are built on expectations - expectations about all sorts of things, such as a company’s future sales growth, the trend in margins and the profits it can return. Understanding those expectations and how they move is critical to share price formation. Listing rules require quoted companies to update investors on progress relative to expectations. What managements often fail to understand is that many of their key investors do not have access to brokers’ research and, thus, cannot put management statements into context. It is these very investors that can cause shock movements in share prices on announcements in limited trading.
Big special dividend, accelerated investment
17 Oct 16
In its recent trading statement Arbuthnot Banking Group (ABG) advised it would make a special dividend of 300p per share (cost £45m) in Q416 against our forecast 150p. Additionally, it has accelerated its expansion into commercial banking and expects to hire six additional experienced staff early in 2017 as well as opening a Manchester office. It also advised that Q316 drawdowns had been a little slower than expected. The overall effect is to see a reduction in 2016/2017 earnings estimates, primarily from higher investment costs, while 2018 is broadly unchanged with the new staff starting to deliver greater business growth.
03 Oct 16
Many commentators realise that the traditional institutional broking model is no longer sustainable. However, the reduction in the quantity of non-corporate coverage that has already occurred, even before MiFID2 comes into effect, will still come as a shock. The evidence shows that there is no commercial sense in brokers covering non-corporate companies with less that £200,000 daily turnover in their shares.
The Impact of Brexit
01 Sep 16
The dramatic – and historic – vote on June 23rd for the UK to exit the EU caught many organisations short, not least the EU itself. Both stock markets and currency markets were anticipating a narrow majority for the UK to remain within the EU – on a similar basis to the 2014 Scottish referendum. But it was not to be. As a result, the financial markets have reacted sharply in recent months, although other non- Brexit factors have also come into the equation.
16 Aug 16
Arbuthnot Banking Group (ARBB) is in a period of transition following the sale of the Everyday Loans Group (ELG) and shares in Secure Trust (STB). The gains crystallised by these disposals resulted in a first half post-tax profit of £225m and an NAV of 1,852p. Prospectively, balance sheet strength is likely to be used for growth in the Arbuthnot Latham loan book and opportunistic M&A. The current below-book valuation appears cautious in view of the bank’s history of NAV growth and the conservative, long-term approach taken by management.
Tripedalism – three legs are better than two
01 Aug 16
Arbuthnot Banking Group (ABG) now has three legs to its business, each offering good growth options. First, the Private Bank, Arbuthnot Latham (AL) has invested heavily in staff, products and new offices with the profit payback now visible. Secondly, ABG owns a 18.9% stake in Secure Trust Bank the rapidly growing challenger bank (market value £76m). Finally, we estimate ABG has c£150m of surplus capital. With surplus liquidity, it has the capacity for significant organic or inorganic growth. The options to deploy this capital are virtually limitless. Our capital fully deployed valuation basis is 55% above the current price.
VPC Speciality Lending Investments PLC – sticking to your knitting pays dividends
05 Dec 16
A 25% discount on a dividend paying vehicle suggests either (a) lack of belief in the NAV, (b) lack of belief in the dividend, (c) concerns over future delivery, (d) a shareholder’s base not normally exposure to “closed end structures” or (e) some combination of (a) to (d). We had a first meeting with the management team and London representative of VPC Speciality Lending to try to better understand why the share price had fallen quite so much.
N+1 Singer - Grainger - Final results in line, further progress on PRS investment pipeline
01 Dec 16
Grainger has reported FY16 final results this morning with key NNNAV and recurring PBT metrics in line with our forecasts. Sales performance and rental income growth was strong in H2, as previewed in the positive FY trading update driving our 19% PBT upgrade in early October (11/10). The PRS investment pipeline continues to grow now standing at £389m secured and £347m in legals as Grainger pursues an £850m investment target by 2020. A 3.05p final dividend is in line with the revised policy to distribute 50% net rental income. The shares continue to trade on a significant, and unwarranted, 20%+ discount to NNNAV. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Better Capital – A tale of two funds
05 Dec 16
Our gut feel on the results is that BCAP’s Gardner disposal feels viable (albeit as a late Q1 transaction). Post Gardner, the exit profile for BCAP’s portfolio is slanted towards the years 2018/19 and not earlier; we view the market’s current pricing as cautious (14% disc to our estimate of FV). In contrast, BC12’s more consumer facing portfolio remains a work in progress and may well offer further disappointment before turning a corner; the market valuation (51% discount to NAV) is cautious but probably fair given the difficulties.
Panmure Morning Note 07-12-2016
07 Dec 16
PCF today announces that it has succeeded in achieving once its major strategic goals by being granted a UK banking licence. In line with prior guidance, the company aims to begin taking deposits in summer 2017 and will initially focus on lending to its core markets in consumer motor finance and SME asset finance. As well as supporting growth in the loan book, the banking licence will both diversify and reduce the cost of its funding base. More details are expected as part of the FY16 results tomorrow.
Meeting near-term headwinds
06 Dec 16
In its trading update IFG reported that performance has been in line with management expectations. The cooling effect of market uncertainty on growth in James Hay and financial advice client numbers, together with the impact of low interest rates, remain a near-term head wind for revenues. Even so, with Saunderson House continuing to increase profits, IFG expects to match 2015 earnings. The long-term growth opportunity presented by an ageing population and pension freedoms remains in place and to address this IFG is continuing investment to enhance its service and increase operational gearing.
Small Cap Breakfast
07 Dec 16
Creo Medical group—Schedule 1 update.. £20m raise. Expected market cap £61.2m, admission expected 9 December. ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.8m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m. RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m