Borussia Dortmund’s Q321 results reflected ongoing cost control, while COVID continued to affect attendance-related revenues. The team’s late surge to finish third in the Bundesliga, and more silverware by winning the DFB-Pokal ensured a pleasing end to a challenging year. We increase our FY22 EBITDA forecast by 33% to reflect a more positive outlook for attendance at matches given the roll-out of COVID vaccines. There will be much speculation about the futures of a number of key players during
Companies: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co. KGaA
Borussia Dortmund’s Q221 trading update showed higher profitability year-on-year due to active cost control despite lower revenue in aggregate as a result of COVID-19, and noting that the majority of revenue sources increased. Our recent Outlook note highlighted the attractive financial characteristics of Borussia Dortmund’s business, in isolation and versus its peers, in ‘normal’ times. Therefore, the company should be a prime beneficiary of life returning to normal, with improving momentum in
Borussia Dortmund’s Q121 results were affected, as expected, by the delayed start to the 2020/21 season, and the severe restrictions on fan attendance at games as experienced towards the end of the prior season. The recent decision by federal and state governments to further restrict attendance at games, in response to the resurgence of COVID-19 in November, highlights the uncertain operating environment for the club. We currently retain our prior forecasts but our SOTP valuation reduces by 8% t
The 2019/20 season was typically successful from a sporting perspective, which reaffirmed Borussia Dortmund’s position as one of the leading football teams in Germany and Europe. The coming year is likely to be more challenging financially due to the operating restrictions necessitated by COVID-19, but the company is well placed to deliver a strong recovery in earnings if restrictions ease, albeit visibility on these is limited. The valuation reflects the uncertain outlook as it is trading at a
The 2019/20 season was typically successful from a sporting perspective, which reaffirmed Borussia Dortmund’s position as one of the leading football teams in Germany and Europe. The coming year is likely to be more challenging financially due to the operating restrictions necessitated by COVID-19, but the company is well-placed to deliver a strong recovery in earnings if restrictions ease, albeit visibility on these is limited. The valuation reflects the uncertain outlook as it is trading at a
Borussia Dortmund’s Q320 results were positive from a profit and cash flow perspective despite the impact of COVID-19 at the end of the period. The Bundesliga has led the way in recommencing games after the season was temporarily suspended, albeit games are to be played behind closed doors, which will lead to lost ticket revenue (among other revenues). Borussia Dortmund is well placed to qualify for the Champions League in the 2020/21 season if the current season can be completed. We downgrade o
Borussia Dortmund’s Q120 results exhibited typical volatility due to the key summer transfer window. Excluding the volatile transfer revenue, there was good growth with other revenue up c 15%. We maintain our forecasts but note there is a key Champions League game in less than two weeks and results in the Bundesliga must improve to ensure qualification for the competition next season. The shares continue to look well supported by its player assets and the FY20e EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.8x.
Borussia Dortmund (BVB) enters the international break with mixed results. A decent season start, notably Supercup triumph vs Bayern and top of its strong Champions League group, could have been so much better but for difficulty closing out games, epitomised by four recent draws despite winning positions. This may cost Dortmund in a more competitive Bundesliga than of late (leading eight teams separated by just four points). We are nonetheless raising our current-year EBITDA forecast from €110m
Pushing champions Bayern Munich to the wire can only have enhanced Borussia Dortmund’s (BVB) fabled ‘Echte Liebe’ brand. Three prominent player signings immediately post-season mark its resolve to improve even on a campaign that clearly exceeded expectations with a new head coach and a developing squad. That player spend (estimated at c €75m) is almost covered by the proceeds from January's bumper transfer of Pulisic, while a new independent squad valuation, highlighting Jadon Sancho (19) as the
The recent dip in form (one win in eight games) risks distracting from Borussia Dortmund’s highly successful season with a new head coach and a developing squad. While disappointment is understandable, given raised expectations, the share price upset (down over 25% from its November peak) appears exaggerated as Dortmund (BVB) remains well-placed for its Bundesliga title challenge and has already all but secured Champions League participation for next season, its overriding KPI. Moreover, we are
Bundesliga leaders and unbeaten in their last 13 matches in all competitions, Borussia Dortmund could not have wished for a stronger start under new head coach, Lucien Favre. Indeed, an impressive win over Atlético Madrid already all but assures qualification for the knockout stages of the Champions League, which is in marked contrast to last season's disappointment. We are therefore confidently maintaining our current-year forecast of robust pre-transfer revenue growth (c 12%), driven by intern
While uncertainty about a head coach and Champions League qualification has been satisfactorily resolved, there is no denying the challenge for Borussia Dortmund (BVB) in making a fresh start after its most difficult season since near-bankruptcy. Without pre-empting new coach Favre, who takes over in July, radical change in the squad make-up and size has already been indicated by management. Likely enhanced transfer activity should therefore support our FY19 EBITDA forecast despite lower pre-tra
While longstanding brand and financial strengths hold true, Borussia Dortmund (BVB) is currently bedevilled by uncertainties. Some, such as the absence of a permanent coach and Champions League qualification, may be temporary. Potentially more challenging is the conflict between sporting and financial aims, given an apparent increased reliance on transfer gains (investor concern at the sale of exceptional goal-scorer Aubameyang is telling). However, there is undeniable reassurance in the scale o
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easyJet’s released its Q3 results, which were in line with management’s expectations. However, the Q4 performance is now expected to be limited further by the new waves of the pandemic and the increasing travel restrictions in Europe. The hope of a meaningful summer rebound is fading away for the whole intra-European travel sector.
Companies: easyJet plc
Companies: Loungers Plc
Next’s share jumped 9% on the back of the impressive Q2 21 performance. The encouraging improvement in retail sales as a result of gradually eased social restrictions in the UK alongside the continued strong momentum in online sales have led the group to finish the quarter with 18.6% sales growth vs. the same period in 2019 (vs. guidance of 3% previously).
The better-than-expected trading performance has enabled the group to raise again its FY21 guidance and to declare a special dividend.
Companies: Next plc
Various Eateries (VE) continues to deliver on its Q320 IPO aspirations with ‘extremely strong’ trading since reopening in April and confirmation of prime site expansion on advantageous terms. In particular, its main brand Coppa Club grew like-for-like sales by 28% on 2019 in its first five weeks of indoor and outdoor dining from 17 May (UK restaurant market like-for-like sales up 8% in June, per Coffer CGA Business Tracker). Similarly, in the half to March 2021, business was encouraging when all
Companies: Various Eateries Plc
Unprecedented times over the past 12 months have seen ScS Group deliver an exceptional set of H1 2021 results, dominated by the surge in orders post Lockdown 1.0. Group revenue grew 14.4%, with an incremental gross margin, tight cost control and UK government support (£6.6m) underpinning EBITDA* of £19.5m (£3.8m in H1 2020). We believe the average net cash through the period was c£97m (c£60m excluding customer balances). H2 2021 visibility remains low, with post Lockdown 3.0 demand uncertain, th
Companies: ScS Group plc
What a difference a year makes - 12 months ago, the focus, quite understandably, was on the course of the pandemic and the lifting of the Lockdown (1) measures. For investors, it was the sustainability of the rally in markets seen since March 2020. Today, while we are still thinking about the lifting of lockdown measures, we are also concerned about two “old favourites” from previous decades. Inflation and the parlous state of public finances. The BoE has said that although CPI inflation rose to
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In this note we focus on five key themes that we believe will shape the motor retail sector in the short-to-medium term. These are digital sales trends, electrification, the agency model, vehicle supply, and the economic outlook. The dealer groups have shown a great deal of resilience and flexibility throughout the Covid-19 pandemic – we expect them to continue to adapt and work closely with OEMs as the industry evolves.
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Shore Capital met with the senior management of Marks & Spencer (M&S) to catch up on business development following its recent AGM. We find a management pressing on with workstreams in still uncertain times and upbeat in mood across the business. We are nervous about this next sentence, but M&S could genuinely be at a positive inflection point, which if so, augurs well for future business performance and so earnings trajectory. In this note we do not adjust our financial forecasts, as may be exp
Companies: Marks and Spencer Group plc
Catena Group (CTNA.L) to complete reverse takeover and be renamed Insig AI and is acquiring the remaining shares of Insight Capital Partners. Insight, which is based in the UK, is a data science and machine learning solutions company that provides bespoke web-based applications, advanced analytical tools and modern technology infrastructure to make machine learning accessible to investment professionals. Insight has developed five products specifically aimed at accelerating an asset manager's d
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Companies: Vertu Motors PLC
Kingfisher’s Q2 FY21/22 trading update came in ahead of market expectations. Following an impressive c.64% lfl sales growth in Q1, the momentum finally receded with Q2 registering a sales decline of >1% so far, as DIY spend tailwinds unwind. On the back of the better-than-expected performance, management upgraded its sales and profitability outlook for H1 FY21/22. Although we will raise the estimates and target price, ‘Reduce’ recommendation is re-affirmed as DIY spend normalises and the limited
Companies: Kingfisher Plc
The final results revealed adjusted PBT up 99% year-on-year, which was 10% better than forecast despite four upgrades during the financial year. This strong performance reflects the financial benefits that have accrued following the shift in the business model to online only, as well as management’s strategic decision to significantly increase marketing spend. A second special dividend for the 2020 financial year has also been announced, reflecting the strong cash flow characteristics of the bus
Companies: Best of the Best plc
easyJet’s Q1 performance was largely hit by travel restrictions in Europe and the situation is expected to be worse in the next quarter. Nevertheless, the market was persuaded by the airline’s current liquidity position which could allow a survival of more than 14 months even in a fully-grounded scenario.
tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to ta
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Entain reported a largely in line top line but above consensus profit numbers, driven by the solid showing in online, which offset the retail weakness. The board has suspended the dividend, in order to preserve liquidity, for what could be an heavy M&A year in 2021 (net debt/EBITDA at 2.1x).
Importantly, BetMGM has made considerable progress (+59% revenue, +7pp market share) across the all-important US market and could be in for another blockbuster year in 2021.
Companies: Entain PLC