Shopping Trolley - finnCap Consumer quarterly sector note

Better than expected to date: The January trading update season has been better than expected, with the ratio of upgrades to downgrades running at 26:16 out of the 101 trading updates that we have analysed. It’s a surprisingly positive start to the New Year which reflects (1) realistic expectations captured in consensus forecasts, (2) consumers’ determination to enjoy Christmas and protect important areas of personal expenditure and (3) a reduction in supply as competitors exit.

Morning Note – 26 January 2023

Morning Note – 23 November 2022

Shopping Trolley - finnCap Consumer quarterly sector note

Fulham Shore’s Franco Manca value-for-money brand is perfect for current market conditions in our view, despite pizza being a crowded segment. Pizza travels well, allowing the business to flex to delivery and take-out according to market conditions. The combination of high gross margins, net cash on the balance sheet and excellent FCF generation should allow it to cope with tougher market conditions AND still protect its expansion capex plans to increase EBITDA by +55% over the next three years.

Morning Note – 9 September 2022

Morning Note – 16 June 2022

BOTB - Beats forecasts, £6.275m return of capital announced

BOTB prelims were slightly ahead of our forecasts, which we recently raised post the May trading statement. Trading continues to normalise despite the uncertain consumer outlook, driven by constant fine-tuning to changing market conditions. BOTB also declared a 6p/share (£0.565k) final dividend and a £6.275m return of capital via tender offer, equivalent to 66.7p/share; and 72.7p and £6.84m combined. We have increased our EPS (Dil. Adj.) forecasts by 23% to 53.9p from 43.9p for FY23E, and by 21%

Morning Note – 11 May 2022

Morning Note – 19 January 2022

BOTB - H1 results in line but tougher outlook

BOTB’s H1 results were in line with expectations, but current trading has become tougher, with customer acquisition costs rising sharply in November and December. Early January is looking better, but the timespan is too short to call a recovery with any certainty. Consequently, we are cutting our EPS (Dil. Adj.) forecasts by 25% to 39.9p for FY22E, by 32% to 43.9p for FY23E and by 35% to 49.3p for FY24p as we conservatively assume little change to current trading. We are reducing our target pric

Shopping Trolley - finnCap Consumer quarterly sector note

The rite of passage to public markets for this year’s cohort of DTC companies has been a bumpy affair, with many share prices deflating faster than one can say TikTok, at the first hint of disappointment. Ten of the 11 stocks are at or below IPO Admission price with only CMO Group ahead and investors at IPO are right to feel dismayed, but we do expect the share prices to recover. In the meantime, for those investors who sat on the side-lines, there are some interesting, better understood, growth

Morning Note – 13 August 2021

BOTB - Consumers take their eyes off the ball

At BOTB’s prelims on 16 June, the remark that it had seen “somewhat of a reduction in customer engagement” since 12 April prompted a 40% decline in the share price as the market worried about this uncertainty. Today’s trading statement reveals that it had seen a 15% reduction in average weekly sales since the start of the new year compared with the last 15 weeks of the prior year. Like most other consumer companies, BOTB is discovering that consumer behaviour is proving harder to predict as the

Vertu Motors (VTU LN) - Market dynamics drive downgrade

An ongoing correction in used car prices has driven lower gross profit per unit for Vertu in recent months and this is expected to continue in the near term. There has been particular weakness in premium vehicle values. Additionally, higher stocking charges on increased new vehicle supply, has led to lower overall profitability. As a result, we have reduced forecast FY24 adjusted PBT by £8.0m (17%) to £39.3m and FY25 by £3.2m (6.2%) to £48.6m. This downgrade to expectations is indicative of mark

Cornerstone FS+ (CSFS, House Stock at 11.5p) - Another smashing trading update

Cornerstone FS+ (CSFS, House Stock at 14p) - Bearing growth aplenty

LIBERUM: Frasers Group: Resilience shining through delivering meaningful sustainable growth

SSP Group+ (SSPG, House Stock at 213p) - Starting to fly, forecasts maintained

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 1 December 2023

LIBERUM: Loungers: LFLs consistent as ever, on the path to pre-Covid margins

HeiQ - Reorganising, right sizing and re-focusing

HeiQ has published its FY22 and H1/23 accounts, noting difficult market conditions for its revenue generating businesses, which has impacted revenue growth in these periods. In light of the market deterioration, the company has taken steps to restructure the group to be more efficient, while implementing expense containment measures. The sudden market disruption in H1/23A saw HeiQ move into a net debt position of $2.1m. While we model the company becoming operating cash flow positive in FY24E, o

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 4 Dec 2023

4th December 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje

SSP Group+ (SSPG, House Stock at 208p) - FY23F results preview

LIBERUM: The Liberum Leisure Digest: Encouraging updates, falling markets

PROGRESSIVE: Zoo Digital: H1 24 – positive news, short and long term

ZOO has announced H1 24 results in line with guidance at the recent AGM. We welcome the news earlier this month that the US actors’ strike has ended. This suggests that revenues could return to historical levels in the relatively near term, and that ZOO was correct to maintain capacity and capability to deliver during the recent hiatus. Subdued workflows have led to a significant EBITDA loss in H1 on revenue of $21m; but given the sequential month-on-month improvement expected, we maintain reven

Topps Tiles - Early delivery

Topps Tiles’ (TPT’s) FY23 results confirm the strong progress made, with its focus on growing profitable market share by developing and diversifying its operations. The success is shown in record revenue for the Topps Tiles branded stores and the group as a whole, aided by the achievement of its ‘1 in 5 by 2025’ market share goal two years earlier than predicted. An improving cost environment has translated into an underlying improvement in gross margin through the year, as expected by manageme

ME Group - Price rises and increased usage driving growth

ME Group has reported a strong set of H1 results with sales up +25%, adj. PBT +68%, adj. EPS +60% and ongoing DPS +14%. The strongest performances were in photobooths in Europe, which benefited from price rises and increased volumes, and laundry in the UK, where there was a +11% increase in the number of machines. This progress was achieved despite a near flat installed base in photobooths, with the anticipated roll-out of next generation photobooths delayed due to supply delays, and a steady in