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Bolloré closed another upbeat quarter, posting impressive revenue growth of 16% lfl yoy in Q3. Again this quarter, Transport & Logistics and Oil Logistics were the main growth drivers, benefiting from higher freight rates and the sharp rise in oil prices. But as the acquisition of the Bolloré Africa Logistics division by MSC looms, oil prices might revert back, and since Vivendi did not perform so well this quarter, questions are being raised about the sustainability of Bolloré’s growth.
Companies: Bollore (BOL:EPA)Bollore SE (BOL:PAR)
Bolloré closed an upbeat H1 2022, posting impressive growth in revenues, EBITDA and net income. Transport & Logistics and Oil Logistics were the main drivers of these record results, both of which benefited from the current economic climate: higher freight rates and a sharp rise in oil prices. All in all, impressive results that should please investors.
Companies: Bollore SE (0IXZ:LON)Bollore SE (BOL:PAR)
Despite healthy prices, Boliden’s Q2 results missed street expectations. Besides guided maintenance shutdowns, the impact of spiralling cost inflation was evident in both divisions. Moreover, given the ferocious commodity pricing correction underway since late Q2, further operating performance normalisation in the coming quarters seems inevitable. However, by virtue of its smelting exposure, precious metal diversity and valuable SEK-driven tailwinds, Boliden seems ‘relatively’ better positioned
Companies: Bollore SE (0IXZ:LON)Boliden AB (BOL:OME)
On the back of war-induced pricing euphoria, Boliden reported exceptional Q1 22 results, with both divisions performing well. While prices helped dwarf cost concerns in Q1, this may not be the case in the coming quarters. Moreover, with serious growth concerns in the Swedish firm’s focus markets, the sustainability of the current results looks increasingly difficult. While Boliden is an apt and well-balance proxy for Europe’s long-term metal demand, it is also risky given the brewing challenges.
Bolloré closed an impressive Q1 with strong revenue growth across all divisions. The group’s Transport and Logistics activity was boosted by the increase in freight forwarding and the Oil Logistics activity was supported by the strong rise in oil prices in the context of the war in Ukraine. The electricity storage and systems business also witnessed a boost in sales with higher sales of buses, plastic films and specialized terminals.
Bolloré’s 2021 was a milestone year, marked by the successful spin-off of Vivendi’s crown jewel UMG and the surprising announcement of a potential exit of Bolloré’s historical African logistics business. The 2022 outlook will be marked by this major deal, opening the door for a complete revamp of the HoldCo’s portfolio in the hands of the new generation, which formally took over the family endeavour in February.
After a disappointing Q3, Boliden has reported impressive Q4 results and summed up to healthy 2021 results. Broad-based price gains (and Q4 FX tailwinds) overshadowed volume disruptions and (brewing) cost challenges. Management again announced attractive shareholder rewards. However, various cost risks and pricing vulnerabilities lie ahead. While Boliden by virtue of its business model remains well-positioned to withstand market volatility, for now, the downside risks are higher and, hence, we m
Australian Vanadium (AVL AU) – Subsidiary to build VRFB at Water corporation site
Boliden AB (BOL SS) – Nickel production halted at Harjavalta due to explosion
Eurasia Mining* (EUA LN) – Update on hydrogen/ammonia strategy and new presentation
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU) – Environmental approval for Malaysian disposal facility
Sandfire Resources (SFR AU) - Spanish government grants Sandfire Resources approval for MATSA acquisition
Companies: AVL SFR LYC BOL EUA BOL
AEX Gold (AEXG LN) – Q3 report indicates progress de-risking Nalunaq Project
Anglo American (AAL LN) – De Beers reports continuing positive sentiment in the diamond market
Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) – Mine River gold exploration extends footprint of the Tombreen target
Boliden AB (BOL SS) - Production halted at Tara Mine
Galantas Gold (GAL LN) – Gold intersections from underground drilling at the Omagh mine
Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – Resumption of drilling at the Senala project, Senegal wi
Companies: AMRQ GAL BOL ORR SOLG AAL ARK BOL
Bolloré closed an upbeat Q3, posting impressive revenue growth for its Transportation & Logistics business, as well as a sales surge for Oil Logistics boosted by rising oil prices. On the Vivendi side, the de facto takeover bid of Lagardère following its agreement signed with Amber Capital points to the family’s next major move after the successful completion of the UMG spin-off, which has led to the Bolloré parent holding an 18% stake on the now independent crown jewel.
Although Boliden reported soft Q3 results – largely due to guided maintenance shutdowns and some unexpected production issues – the firm remains in a strong position to leverage favourable market dynamics. Besides the near-term disruption in (European) zinc markets, the recovery in smelting charges is a good omen. Furthermore, the firm’s strong positioning in Europe – where demand fundamentals are ‘relatively’ more stable vs. the likes of China – makes the Swedish firm a good sector bet.
Bolloré could be looking to exit its long-standing logistics activities in Africa according to French media. Although the company has not commented on the matter — so it remains all speculation — we see this potential move as a clear positive. Bolloré is faced with the high capital intensity of the business while affronting competitive pressures from deeper-pocketed and expanding rivals. Supportive valuations for logistics & port operators and the upcoming departure of Vincent Bolloré suggest th
On the back of healthier prices, this time Boliden reported decent Q2 operating results. Although the performance fell below expectations. Mining continued to do well, but Smelting came under some pressure. While Boliden remains an attractive European bet, the near term is likely to be restrained by market volatility, planned maintenance shutdowns and growing inflation risk(s).
In a letter addressed to Vivendi, Bolloré has committed to not ask the French market authority (AMF) for an exemption of launching a takeover bid on Vivendi, triggered if the HoldCo finds itself crossing the regulatory threshold of 30% of the share capital.
Continuation of price tailwinds supported Boliden’s Q1 results, despite production challenges in mining, TC worries in smelting and FX headwinds. Both divisions managed healthy results. While eventual commodity market normalisation and guided smelter maintenance should gradually result in capped/retreating margins, Boliden’s (cash) return generation capabilities should remain intact. Hence, the Swedish miner-smelter remains attractive, but with limited upside.
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The group’s FY22 results confirmed its preliminary communication and the latest bookings continue to support a promising outlook. Nevertheless, a potential large-scale strike in France during the important Christmas holidays is weighing on the share price performance. We expect a slight upgrade to our valuations.
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We are initiating coverage on Cornerstone FS plc (CSFS LN), a UK based fintech provider of international payments and currency management solutions for small and medium sized businesses.
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Kingfisher Q3 trading witnessed all banners performing ahead of market expectations. While lfls declined in the UK, the group’s lfl sales (+0.2% yoy) were led by the French and Polish businesses (+0.6% and +7.6%, respectively). Despite overall market share gains and a strong showing during the initial three weeks of Q4 (+2.8% yoy), investors disliked the hair cut in the FY22 PBT guidance (£730-760m vs £730-770m earlier). This is not a big issue in our view. We will upgrade our financial estimate
Companies: Kingfisher Plc
There were no major surprises in Kingfisher’s H1 FY22/23 performance. The group’s lfl sales came in at -4.1% yoy (vs consensus of -4.2%). Almost all banners performed in line with expectations. A good start to Q3 also bodes well for Kingfisher to achieve FY22/23 consensus. However, we expect the overall business performance (home improvement demand) to come under pressure during the forecast years as rising inflation and a fragile economic outlook dents consumer sentiment. We maintain a positive
Halfords 3Q IMS is in our view positive with PBT forecasts for FY 2020 held at £50-55m and good LFL in Retail cycles +5.9% and Autocentres +4.6% where most of new management development work has been focused. Retail Motoring products LFL -2.7% continues to show impacts of discretionary spend softness in our view. Management retains its caution about near term demand prospects overall and its development programme in Autocentres and key aspects of the business overall (notably new integrated webs
Companies: Halfords Group Plc
18 July 2022
Status of this Note and Disclaimer
This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective
Companies: TSTL NTBR AEG BARK KP2 SKIN GWMO MEX
Both the FY22 figures and FY23 guidance were positioned above the market’s expectations, bolstering hopes of a full recovery in underlying profit. We expect an increase in the consensus and our estimates. More visibility on the group’s strategic roadmap should be provided at the forthcoming CMD on 2 November.
Companies: Sodexo (SW:EPA)Sodexo SA (SW:PAR)
The Big Book 2022 includes our highest conviction Best Ideas for 2022. In 2021 our Best ideas outperformed by 24%, extending our track record (>10% outperformance on average over the past decade). We have again divided our coverage into six distinct themes to create our Matrix. We have added two new categories this year: ESG and Pricing Power, both of which will be fundamental investment themes for 2022. We look forward to discussing our ideas with you.
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