Cenkos: Consumer Q1/23

Key Observations Despite a second successive decline in CPI during the quarter, inflation remained at one of the highest levels in 40 years (10.5% in December) contributing to a winter of discontent, with each day in December facing some form of industrial action. The industrial action materially impacted the consumer sector and provided an insight into the simmering frustration around the decline in real wages of the UK population. There were multiple examples of consumer corporate failures d

Cenkos: Consumer Q3/22 Review

Third Quarter Key Observations  Escalating inflation continued to cut further into consumers' discretionary income, impacting demand across the consumer sector. The systemic rise in input costs significantly impacted companies' bottom lines, testing the resilience of even the strongest in the sector, as businesses balanced the long-term need to maintain relevance to their customer base (in terms of pricing & quality) whilst also seeking to navigate immediate economic challenges. The Gf

Cenkos: Brighton Pier Group Plc -- Strong results, challenging outlook

Brighton Pier Group (BPG) performed strongly during the 12 months to June 2022, which resulted in the company beating forecasts that had already been twice upgraded (FY22E Adj EBITDA of £6.5m originally forecast vs £10.8m ultimately achieved). All divisions performed well, with trading boosted by pent-up consumer demand and government support packages. The outlook appears more muted, however, driven by elevated inflation and the widely documented ‘cost-of-living crisis'; consequently, we lower o

Cenkos: Brighton Pier Group Plc -- FY22E results ahead of expectations

We had already upgraded our FY22E Adj EBITDA forecast twice this year, and in its full year trading update, Brighton Pier Group (BPG) announces that it has further outperformed expectations, with Adj EBITDA of £10.8m ahead of our £10.4m forecast. All divisions performed well, with LFL sales comfortably ahead of pre-Covid levels. Given the sharp deterioration in the UK (and global) economic outlook seen this calendar year, with inflation continuing to rise and consumers facing a ‘cost of living c

Cenkos: Brighton Pier Group Plc -- Trading in line with expectations

Brighton Pier Group (BPG) has released a trading update, confirming it continues to trade in line with market expectations for FY22E. We have already upgraded our numbers twice this year; the latest of which occurred in March 2022. Given the sharp deterioration in the UK (and global) economic outlook seen since then, with inflation continuing to rise and consumers facing a ‘cost of living crisis', we consider the fact that BPG continues to trade in line with expectations as an impressive achieve

Cenkos: Brighton Pier Group Plc -- Upgrading FY22E forecasts for a second time

Brighton Pier Group (BPG) has released very positive interim results, with group revenue up 33% on H1/19A (ie pre-Covid) to £22.8m (+178% YoY), Adj EBITDA of £7.9m (H1/20A £2.0m), and a £4.9m reduction in net debt over the six months. All divisions traded well, as the group capitalised on the rise in UK staycations and pent-up demand for leisure activities. Positive momentum has continued into H2/22E, meaning that BPG is trading ahead of expectations for the full year. Following our 85% upgrade

Cenkos: Brighton Pier Group Plc -- Trading “comfortably in line” for FY22E

Brighton Pier Group (BPG) has released an encouraging H1/22E trading update, with group revenue of £22.7m representing a 177% YoY increase, and up 31% versus the same (pre-Covid) period in 2019. All divisions traded well, including the Bars division (LFL revenue +27% vs 2019) which, despite current restrictions having an impact in December, had a robust finish to the year. The group continues to be solidly cash generative, enabling management to repay an expected £7.7m of bank debt by FY22E. Th

Cenkos: Brighton Pier Group Plc -- FY21A Annual Results

Despite the extremely challenging operating environment caused by the pandemic, Brighton Pier Group PLC (BPG) delivered a solid set of results for FY21A, with Adj EBITDA of £5.1m was largely in line with our recently upgraded forecasts (FY21E £5.2m). This was helped, in particular, by £5m BPG received in insurance proceeds, as well as robust trading for the Golf sites and Pier once they were allowed to open. BPG acquired Lightwater Valley theme park during the year for a highly attractive valuat

Cenkos: Brighton Pier Group Plc -- 85% upgrade to FY22E Adj EPS

Brighton Pier Group Plc (BPG) has traded remarkably well during the first 13 weeks of its financial year, with net sales up 44% versus the same period (pre-Covid) in 2019. BPG also successfully settled its business interruption insurance claims in full, meaning it will now receive £2m more in FY21E than we had forecasted (£5m in total). We update our FY21E forecasts to account for this, as well as materially upgrading our FY22E projections (Adj EPS raised 85% to 11.9p) to reflect the very positi

Cenkos: Brighton Pier Group Plc - Acquisition of Lightwater Valley Attractions

Brighton Pier Group (BPG) has announced a highly complementary acquisition of Lightwater Valley Attractions Ltd (‘Lightwater'), which owns and operates a leading family theme park in North Yorkshire, for up to £5.0m (c5x normalised EBITDA). We upgrade our forecasts to reflect this earnings enhancing deal (FY22E Adj EPS increased by 14% to 6.4p). With outlook appearing very positive for the group, and the shares trading on an undemanding FY22E Adj P/E of only 9.0x, we reaffirm our Buy rating.

Cenkos: Brighton Pier Group Plc -- The Roaring Twenties

A century ago, following the end of the Spanish Flu pandemic and the first world war, a decade of significant cultural and economic development ensued, known as the ‘Roaring Twenties'. Today, many believe a similar phenomenon will shortly be unleashed, as the roll out of Covid-19 vaccines allows life to return to normal. As an established operator of a diverse portfolio of leisure assets across the UK (mini-golf, premium bars, and its namesake pier), Brighton Pier Group (BPG) is well placed to c

Brighton Pier Group - A fun ride

Brighton Pier Group (BPG) looks to be rather more than a clear play on the expected UK staycation boom, attractive as that is. With a focus on popular low-ticket leisure, driven by the group’s fabled eponymous key asset, entrepreneurial management sees longer-term growth opportunities as a consolidator accelerated by fallout from the pandemic. For now, it is confident that buoyancy in the Pier and Golf after spring 2020 lockdown (sales in Q3 almost at 2019 levels) can be repeated on imminent pha

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

FY19A results, release of FY21E forecasts

Brighton Pier final results for FY19A came in line with our expectations. Revenues were £32.0m (est. £32.1m), Adjusted PBT was £3.2m (est. £3.2m), and Adj EPS was 7.2p (est 7.1p). We take this opportunity to push through slight model updates for FY20E (net impact; 2% increase to Adj EPS. of 9.2p) and release FY21E forecasts of £35.8m sales, £4.6m Adj PBT, and 10.2p Adj EPS. At 5.5x FY19E earnings, we believe the asset-backed shares remain materially undervalued. We re-iterate our PT of 95p.

Quarterly Research Outlook - Summer 2019

In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.

Top Picks for 2023 - 2022 review and outlook for 2023

On 10 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2022, in what turned out to be a very poor twelve months for global equities, due to war, accelerating inflation, political instability and recession fears. Between 7 January 2022 and 31 December 2022, the AIM All-Share Index declined 30.0%, whilst the average performance of our ten top picks was -24.7%, a modest relative outperformance. In this note we discuss the performance of our 2022 top picks, equities trends in 2022, and our

LIBERUM: Vertu Motors - Helston acquisition an excellent strategic fit

Morning Note – 26 January 2023

SHORE CAPITAL - XP Factory+ (XPF, House Stock at 16p)

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 23 Jan 23

23 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

YE update – another positive staging post for new team

The YE update shows that strong LFL and operational momentum was sustained in H2. Overall FY22 system sales grew by 20% and LFLs by 21%, led by volume/mix as the new CEOs actions begin to take effect. We make no forecast changes, but the positive H2 profitability trend cited is an important inflection point in the context of DPP now moving to sustainable profits. A well-capitalised balance sheet also means expansion is firmly on the agenda. The key point is that international evidence shows once

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 19 Jan 23

19 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

SHORE CAPITAL - Motorpoint Group+ (MOTR) - House Stock at 145p

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 Jan 23

24 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Spring is finally coming

The market reacted positively to easyJet’s Q1 trading update as the meaningful pricing tailwind and the continued restoration of load factors allowed for consensus-beating results and guidance. The buoyancy was further fuelled by the low-cost rivals’ promising stance on summer activities. We expect an upgrade in the consensus and to our valuation.

FY22 beat but FY23/24 growth trajectory moderated

SHORE CAPITAL - Rank Group^ (RNK, Buy at 91p) H1: Guidance unchanged but signs of life

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 11-10-2022

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Cooks Coffee Company ltd, an international coffee focused café chain which currently owns the Esquires Coffee and Triple Two Coffee Brands, intends to join the AQSE Growth Market. The Company is the 4th largest coffee focused café chain in the UK. Cooks Coffee is currently listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange. Raising £1.5m through a rights issue in New Zealand and a private placeme

On track to deliver another good year

Inditex published a reassuring set of 9-month results, increasing our confidence for the quarter ahead despite the softer market trends. The gross profit for the first nine month reached €13.5bn, reflecting a gross margin of 58.7%, ahead of our expectations. The group confirmed that sales between 1 Nov and 8 Dec increased by 12% vs. same period in 2021, indicating an encouraging start for Q4 22.

ZOO Digital (ZOO LN) - Initiation: Dominant species

ZOO Digital is a leading provider of end-to-end localisation and media services, for TV and film content, to streaming platforms such as Disney+. We expect the Group’s scalable technology to take market share in the large, underpenetrated dubbing market. ZOO should also benefit from increasing competition between streaming platforms and their aggressive international expansion plans. We forecast ZOO’s revenue jumps 76% from $70.4m in FY22 to $123.6m in FY25 with EBITDA margins expanding from 11.