LIBERUM: Frontier Developments: Back to basics

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 1 December 2023

Frontier Developments (FDEV LN) - Expect change

Initial sales from the launch of Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Realms of Ruin have underperformed. After several disappointing new releases, the company has decided to reverse its strategy to diversify into adjacent game genres. We believe the increased focus should improve Frontier Development’s efficiency but may also increase its revenue concentration and volatility. The update and strategic change lead us to lower FY24 Adj LBITDA to £13.6m from £9.0m. We now also forecast no revenue growth over t

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 27/11/23

27th November 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obj

LIBERUM: Frontier Developments: Warhammer: Soft trading through key period

Frontier Developments (FDEV LN) - Road to recovery

We are encouraged by Frontier Developments' announcement of an Organisational Review. We believe many video games companies inflated their expense bases during 2020 and 2021 and reduced focus on return on investment. Frontier now plans to reduce annual operating costs by up to 20% by the beginning of FY25. Frontier's Organisational Review returns the business' focus to optimising returns, leading us to forecast a recovery in adjusted EBIT margins to 5.3% in FY25 and 9.4% in FY26. We believe the

LIBERUM: Frontier Developments: Review and Realms of Ruin key to improving cash flow in FY25E

Zeus: Video Games Sector Quarterly review - October 2023

Subsector price performance: In the quarter to 30 September 2023, all four subsectors saw mean average share price declines. UK PC and Console focused subsector was again the worst performing (-20.6%).

Frontier Developments (FDEV LN) - FY23 results

Frontier Developments’ results for the year to 31 May 2023 showed a year-on-year decline in revenue of 8.3% and wider than expected operating losses due to non-cash impairment charges and accelerated amortisation of underperforming titles. The Group has tidied its balance sheet and is taking a more prudent approach to game amortisation, which lowers our near-term underlying EBIT forecasts. The company is now refocused on selecting games that better align to its previously successful strategy, wi

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 13 Sep 23

13th September 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment ob

Video Games Sector - Quarterly review – July 2023

In this edition of the video games quarterly we analyse the supply and demand factors in the quoted UK video games sector to provide an outlook on H2 2023. On average, due to the holiday season, the second half accounts for c. 60% of revenue and, with operational gearing, an even greater proportion of profits, making it a crucial period.

Frontier Developments (FDEV LN) - FY23 update

We are disappointed to not see at least modest outperformance of FY23 expectations and a more upbeat outlook, given the company’s conservative approach to guidance. We lower our estimates to be in line with updated guidance but see potential for upside given the company’s compelling strategy and record of high-quality games. We believe FDEV should trade at a premium over peers.

LIBERUM: Frontier Developments: Rebuilding confidence

UK video games sector - Trough valuations?

The video games sector is unloved. Shares in the UK video games sector have fallen sharply and have significantly underperformed other small-cap sectors. Some stocks now appear to offer deep value, with mid-single digit ex-cash PEs that are well below pre-pandemic levels. In particular, Devolver, tinyBuild, and Frontier Developments multiples have fallen well below the sector average. We see upside to Frontier Developments’ earnings estimates and Devolver’s depressed multiples.

AFC Energy (AFC LN) - First modular ammonia cracker system

AFC has unveiled a groundbreaking modular ammonia cracker system demonstrating viable and scaleable production of hydrogen in the UK using this method. The cracker system is designed to deliver 140 tonnes of fuel cell grade hydrogen each year. Hydrogen from the plant will initially be targeted for sale into AFC’s UK H-Power Generator deployments, including those with Speedy Hydrogen Solutions. Along with the recent purchase of the mobile storage and distribution assets of Octopus Hydrogen, AFC c

Spectra Systems - Today's deal powers polymer banknotes and provides a big earnings lift

This morning's announcement that SPSY is to acquire Cartor Holdings provides the company with significant new firepower as it embarks on lucrative central bank currency bids with its powerful and innovative polymer banknote technology. Cartor is a global market leader in security printing with manufacturing sites in the UK and France, supplying a range of printed security products which are highly complementary with SPSY's core portfolio, and offering significantly enhanced capabilities in rela

CAP-XX - Tax rebate received and JV signed

CAP-XX has announced the Australian Taxation Office has approved the FY23 R&D grant and associated rebate of A$2.1m. The net proceeds of A$1.0m, after repaying the principal and interest associated with the revolving line of credit drawdown, were received by CAP-XX last week.

Solid State - Strong interim results – trading in line with FY24 expectations

The group delivered a strong set of interims, boosted by a full contribution from Custom Power (CP) and its large military contract delivery. Organic growth was over 35%, with an improvement in underlying margins, albeit with the margin mix diluted by the military contract delivered. As flagged, H1 order intake saw some customer destocking, although there may be some early signs this could be abating. Even so trading remains resilient. The outlook points to trading in line with recently upgraded

Gooch & Housego - FY23 results in-line with expectations, better cash flow

FY23 results are in-line with expectations, showing growth from strong underlying demand, coupled with improved operational delivery. Growth was seen in all three divisions. Trading is in-line with the recent upgraded FY24 forecasts. Prospects are underwritten by a strong order book and boosted by the recent acquisitions of Artemis and GS Optics, albeit with some customer destocking by certain industrial customers, offset by robust demand in growth areas. Self-help measures and the new CEO’s str

Morning Note – 5 December 2023

Solid State - nterim results illustrate a strong trading performance; on track for the full year

Solid State is a specialist value added component supplier and design-in manufacturer of computing, power and communications products. This morning, the group has released interim results to 30 September 2023, illustrating strong growth at both the revenue and PBT levels, with the Board reaffirming confidence in meeting full year expectations. H1 2024 revenue increased by 48% to £88.1m, driven in part by a £23.4m contribution from specific contracts within defence and security, with adjusted PBT

Solid State - Returning to trend growth

Solid State has confirmed the strong H124 performance, boosted by a full period contribution from Custom Power combined with the benefit of delivering the NATO contract. Despite the continuing challenges we expect organic growth to resume from the lower trend level of profit excluding the NATO uplift from H224. Following the recent 5% uplift for both revenue and PBT, FY24 guidance and market consensus estimates are unchanged.

The Joy of Techs - Cavendish Technology quarterly sector note

£23.3bn in enterprise value has been returned to AIM technology shareholders over the past six years in the form of 51 public to private takeouts, including 10 in 2023 alone with the takeovers of Smoove* and Tribal announced in early October. With UK valuations appearing cheap and looking more attractive to potential acquirers, we take a moment to reflect on the trends of corporate and private equity bidders targeting AIM-listed technology companies going back to 2017, through the uncertainties

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 05 Dec 23

5th December 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje

PROGRESSIVE: Watkin Jones: FY23E outlook dips slightly; FY24E unchanged

Watkin Jones’s FY23E year-end trading update is broadly in line with our expectations, albeit with slightly higher costs than previously signalled but significantly better net cash and no change to the remedial works provision. Encouragingly, guidance for FY24E is unchanged, with progress in forward sales of student and private assets to institutional investors. Data from both student and private rental markets continues to show huge under-supply.

LIBERUM: Superdry*: Progress in resetting the business; tough year ahead

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 4 Dec 2023

4th December 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje

PROGRESSIVE: IG Design Group: Strong profit growth, key strategy initiatives and quantified aspirations

IG Design Group delivered a 27% increase in adjusted PBT to $34.8m for H1 FY24 (to 30 September) with a significant reduction in net debt to $15.1m, as signposted in last month’s trading update. The adjusted operating profit margin was some 270bps higher at 8.6% (vs 5.9% in H1 FY23), the highest achieved since H1 FY20 ahead of the CSS acquisition. Management has provided more details on the key attributes and initiatives for its new growth-focused strategy. The group is on track to return to pre

Games Workshop Group - Leviathan

Games Workshop Group (GAW) enjoyed another record year of revenue and profit growth in FY23 despite the more challenging macroeconomic backdrop and economy-wide cost pressures. Underlying volume growth is testimony to the appeal of the IP to its hobbyists. GAW entered FY24 with strong revenue momentum, implying that the June 2023 release of Leviathan, the 10th edition of its most significant property, Warhammer 40K, has boosted growth in Q124. Easing cost pressures should be supportive of underl