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Breakfast Today

  • 20 Feb 17

Steve Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary, rather clouded Trump's revolutionary picture when speaking at his first press conference last week. Possibly he was under orders to leave key details for Trump himself to divulge at tomorrow's State of the Union Address or, just maybe, he is still confused as the rest of us. Whatever, in failing to provide any detail regarding the much anticipated corporate and personal tax reform packages championed during the Presidential campaign and, instead adopting the prudent view that the impact from the Republican's prospective fiscal policy will not be felt until 2018, initially unnerved the US markets on Friday. Investors were certainly left considering the giant injection of new spending to rebuild the country's tired infrastructure was going to take more time to deliver than currently expected although, more positively Mr Mnuchin did appear to be watering down the President's earlier attack on 'currency manipulator' China. As a result, the Dow Jones fell over 75 points during Friday's morning trade before the wall of money being liberated from global government bond markets flooded back in to ensure all three principal indices clawed back into the positive with the Industrial Average itself scaping a fractional gain, albeit sufficient for it to chalk up its 11th consecutive record closing. Asia by comparison was weaker across the board this morning, with Japan leading the decline as Nikkei sentiment again pivoted downward on modest Yen:US$ gains, dragging the Chinese indices with it while the commodity-rich ASX continued to nurse losses amongst its minerals plays. This week's primary macro focus will, of course, be on tomorrow's President's speech and to a lesser extent further comments anticipated from various Fed officials regarding prospective interest rate policy. No significant macro data is expected from the UK today, although the EU is due to publish a batch of statistics, ranging from M3 Money Supply, Services/Consumer sentiment and Industrial Confidence while the US, similarly, is expected to deliver January Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales before FOMC member Robert Kaplan is scheduled to speak. UK corporates due to publish earnings or trading updates include Bunzl (BNZL.L), McColl's Retail Group (MCLS.L), Persimmon (PSN.L), Senior (SNR.L), Trinity Mirror (TNI.L) and Volex (VLX.L). London is seen drawing on the late enthusiasm than powered the US indices into the positive on Friday, with the FTSE-100 seen rising some 20 points in early trading. Investors will, however, be keen to learn more from the London Stock Exchange (LSE.L), given comments that emerged in the media late Sunday, suggesting that regulatory impositions, such as the sale of its Italian fixed income trading platform, were so overwhelming that the planned €29bn merger with Germany's Deutsche Börse was now at risk.