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…and immediately earnings enhancing
Companies: Kape Technologies Plc
Reach’s prelims were ahead of N1S estimates for H2 sales and EBITDA (1% and 3% resp.) and showed excellent progress with both the customer value strategy (‘CVS’) and business transformation agenda. Whilst FY’20 Group sales were 15% y/y lower as CV19 impacted Print, Digital revenue grew +11% y/y to £118m (H2: +20% to £70m), supported by a strong uptick in user engagement with content (page views/user: +39% y/y) and further progress in signing up new registered users (Feb’21: 5.8m; Dec’20: 5.0m; Dec’19: 0.7m). Meanwhile quick action to mitigate CV19 impact on Print volumes and execution on the business transformation plan saw AOP margins increase 50bps y/y, with Group H2 AOP down just 4% y/y (FY’20: -13%). Looking ahead, there were highly encouraging results from initial campaigns on the Group’s ReachID platform (+10%-40% uplift in click-through rates on early campaigns), whilst further cost savings of £11m are announced through rationalisation of the Group’s Print sites. Strong cash performance was reflected in £42m of cash inflow (post pension and historic legal and contractual payments), which gives management confidence to declare a final cash dividend of 4.26p/share. The path to sustainable top-line and FCF growth remain very much open, with FY’21E adj FCF of £120m generating an 11% yield at current valuation.
Companies: Reach plc
CentralNic delivered FY20 revenues of US$241.2m, a 121% y-o-y increase (FY19: US$109.2m). Adjusted EBITDA rose 71% to US$30.6m (FY19: US$17.9m), supported by the acquisitions completed in FY19 and FY20 and led by growth in Monetisation. On a pro forma basis, adjusting for the Codewise acquisition, the group delivered 9% organic revenue growth in FY20. In FY21, the group has already completed two acquisitions (SafeBrands and Wando) and secured €60m of additional bond headroom from shareholders, of which €15m has been placed to fund Wando and future M&A deals. On the basis of the strong FY20 results, with the group trading in line with management’s expectations ytd, we have updated our forecasts. The valuation continues to look attractive versus peers.
Companies: CentralNic Group Plc
Kape has issued a trading update for what was a very productive year for the Group and in which it exhibited a strong trading performance. Revenue for FY 2020E is expected to be at the top end of the expected range while Adjusted EBITDA is ahead of guidance. We increase our estimates by 1% and 8% respectively to be in line with the anticipated outturn for the year. It now has around 2.5m paying subscribers across its core markets of North America and Europe. Kape also completed the integration of Private Internet Access (PIA) ahead of schedule and launched new products, including its privacy suite. Kape expects to increase R&D spending further in FY 2021E to build on the successful additions to its product range and customer experience. With good momentum going into FY 2021E, the Group continues to demonstrate its ability to drive customer numbers and retention through the execution of a clear strategy for meeting the growing demand from consumers for digital privacy and security solutions.
Upon Admission to AIM, Nightcap will acquire The London Cocktail Club Limited (the "London Cocktail Club"), which is an award winning independent operator of ten individually themed cocktail bars in nine London locations and one location in Bristol. Offer TBC. HSS Hire Group, HSS.L transfer from Main to Aim. Mkt Cap c. £70m. Recently raised £52.6m. Leading supplier of tool and equipment for hire in the United Kingdom and Ireland and has provided equipment hire services in the United Kingdom for more than 60 years, primarily focusing on the B2B market. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange.
Companies: PMI RMM SUN BOIL ITM TRMR MLVN 88E IME ANP
Reach plc, the market-leading commercial regional and national news publisher, is approaching a positive revenue inflection point which is transformational to perceptions of the Group. With the 5th largest digital unique visitor base (>40m) in the UK (behind the likes of Facebook and Google), the Group has a material, yet currently under-exploited opportunity which could see Digital revenues double on a 4-year view. Among initiatives to unlock value, new management is focused on granular data capture, audience stratification, and targeted, highly-relevant content dissemination, with successful execution already manifesting itself in rising user engagement. Cost efficiencies and a mix shift towards Digital support margin expansion, and are forecast to improve already attractive FCF margins (FY’20E: 19%). A progressive dividend (N1S FY’21 DPS: 6.8p) augments the investment case whilst an intrinsic value of 300p/share offers significant upside potential.
In Q3 20, the decrease in total advertising revenue slowed significantly (-7% vs -43% in Q2 20, of which -42% in June). For Q4 20, ITV is expecting a slight increase yoy, assuming no prolongation of the containment into December. ITV Studios’ revenue dropped by 19% at constant currency in 9m19 (vs -17% in H1 20). The return to full capacity is challenging due to the second lockdown so that both revenue and the EBITA margin should be impacted in Q4 20.
Companies: ITV PLC
The MISSION’s trading update indicates the group had a comfortably better Q4 than expected, with the full-year PBT over £1m, against our forecast £0.5m. Cash performance was significantly ahead, with a year-end net debt position of £1.3m allowing the payment of the delayed final 1.53p dividend from FY19. We will update our FY20 numbers with the full results in April. We have trimmed our FY21 forecast revenue by 7.5% to reflect the ongoing impact of the pandemic in H121, reducing PBT from £9.0m to £7.1m. We also publish our first thoughts on FY22, on an improving trend. The shares remain priced at a significant discount to peers on earnings multiples.
Companies: Mission Group Plc
4imprint’s trading update indicates that order intake in Q4 was a little better than we had anticipated. Unaudited FY20 revenue was reported at c $560m, or 5% above our prior forecast. We remain circumspect around trading prospects for FY21, given the impact of the pandemic on corporate America and leave our forecast unchanged for now. The indicated year-end net cash balance at $39.8m (excluding lease debt) was well ahead of our projected figure ($22.5m in our modelling), and close to the $40.1m reported in October, implying that cash collections have held up strongly. We continue to view 4imprint as a high-quality investment proposition.
Companies: 4imprint Group plc
Interims (six months to September) demonstrate resilient revenue of £4.4m, adjusted EBITDA profitability at £0.3m (especially impressive vs £0.5m for 15m to FY20), and cash of £1.2m. Current cash of £1.3m is reassuring, with end January expected to be the cash low point for the year. Despite COVID pressure on the customer base, AIM membership remained steady at 2,085 at 1 January (September 2020: 2,103, March 2020: 2,276) and preferred supplier numbers were unshaken at 175. Purchase orders processed through the system are regaining strength, returning to 70% of original management volume expectations, while AIM Capital Solutions, and the associated premium member benefits, gains momentum. While we are not yet free of COVID, the group demonstrated action and resilience in this key period from March to September where the pandemic’s impact was most novel and most brutal – and with the current cash balance, the trading update delivers optimism for the long term. Forecasts remains suspended, and we look forward to further updates.
Companies: Altitude Group plc
CentralNic released unaudited preliminary 2020 results showing pro forma 9% revenue growth, ahead of expectations (ZC: 4%). The company continues to take market share in a growing market. EBITDA was in line with consensus expectations but below our top of consensus forecasts. CNIC is increasing investment in new products and integration, which we expect to continue in 2021 and provide net returns in 2022. The company’s results demonstrate its ability to integrate, scale and extract synergies from acquisitions. We see potential earnings upside from the Codewise acquisition and expect CNIC to deliver further significant earnings accretive acquisitions in 2021.