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Breakfast Today

  • 01 Dec 16

"Global oil prices continued to rise during Asian trade early Thursday morning. Having gained 9% on the New York Mercantile Exchange during the US session, light, sweet crude for January delivery was priced at US$49.50/bbl, while Brent traded in London's futures exchange at US$51.90 for the following month. Having come to an agreement to cut production for the first time since the financial crisis to 32.5m barrels a day, in which Saudi takes a big hit and Russia participates for the first time since 2001, enforcement remains the key issue. OPEC has no authority to force compliance of its members which, given their past records of cheating, raises concern; it will, however, hold talks with non-member producers on 9th December in order to discuss the issue of policing amongst other issues. Meanwhile, this spike in crude prices will likely already be prompting US shale operators to take advantage by pulling spigots out of their presently dormant capacity, suggesting the overnight gains will be tricky to sustain. US equities ended mixed on the news, with the Dow closing the highly eventful month with a fractional gain driven by its oil majors, while the S&P-500 and NASDAQ fell deeper into the red, as the US$ hit a 9-month high against the Yen and some traders fretted over the loss of international competitivity now being faced. Asian equities, by comparison, were strong across the board, with the Nikkei riding high on the OPEC news and weakening currency, before giving back half of its gains by market close. Chinese equities were also firm, helped additionally by the release of official manufacturing PMI data showing November rising to 51.7, up from 51.2 in the previous month and beating consensus expectation. Amongst all this the loser, of course, has been the US government bond, which capped its worst month in seven years, taking a further post-election hit yesterday as investors continue to speculate on the ending of the long-run bull market in Treasuries. European traders meanwhile are keeping a nervous eye on the Euro as polls for Sunday's constitutional referendum in Italy continue to predict a narrow victory for the 'No' vote while, in the UK they will be awaiting today's Manufacturing PMI release and the Nationwide House Price Index figures. UK corporates due to provide earnings or trading updates include APC Technology (APC.L), Clipper Logistics (CLG.L), Daily Mail & General (DMGT.L), Market Tech Holdings (MKT.L) and PHSC (PHSC.L). Index funds will also be balancing their holdings in Travis Perkins (TPK.L) and Polymetal (POLY.L) which were squeezed out of the FTSE-100 in yesterday's index reshuffle. London equities are seen opening slightly weaker, with the FTSE-100 seen down around 10 points in early trade." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst