The Aoku Mizu FPSO is now on station and hooked up at Lancaster; we believe this keeps the EPS on schedule for first oil in H119. Hurricane will now focus on topside commissioning prior to start-up, which will be followed by a ramp-up period to a gross targeted plateau production rate of 20kbd (17kbod net of operating efficiency). In addition to progressing Lancaster, the company has a full programme of activity in its neighbouring Greater Warwick Area (GWA), with the three-well E&A programme in the GWA expected to kick off in early Q219 at Warwick Deep. Our risked valuation stands at 102.8p/share (see our last note).
With the Aoka Mizu FPSO now successfully hooked up to the buoy, focus this year will shift to commissioning, production performance and data gathering. Management is guiding that it will take more than six months from first oil to achieve the targeted production rate of 17kbod from the two production wells (net of operating efficiency). Whilst the two Lancaster EPS wells are expected to have combined gross output of c 20kbod from first oil, management guide at a lower operational efficiency (45% to 65%) during the first six months of production. A minimum six- to 12-month period of data gathering will be required to begin evaluating the long-term producibility of the reservoir. Our risked valuation stands at 102.8p/share. We will be providing a more detailed update covering EPS commissioning and upcoming drilling in due course.